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| Friday, 08/01/2025 7:30 PM (ET) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gm# | Record | Open | Latest | ML | 1H | |
 PHO | 613 | 16-11 | -1.5 | -4.5 | -200 | -2.5 |
 ATL | 614 | 17-11 | 163 | 167 | +170 | 84.5 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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Tip SheetSimulation & Ratings🔒Betting Systems🔒Team Trends🔒Team StatsSchedule & ResultsHead-to-Head🔒Coaches🔒
WNBA Simulation & Power Ratings |
This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.
Power Rating Projections |
Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.
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| Power Rating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Rating | Estimate | Actual | Edge |
| PHO | 81 | -4.5 | ||
| ATL | 88 | -9 | ATL (+13.5) | |
Game Simulation Results |
This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores, Edges | Shooting | 3pt Shooting | Free Throws | Rebounding | |||||||||||
| Teams | Score | Edge | H1Score | Edge | 3FGM-A | Pct. | 3FGM-A | Pct. | FTM-A | Pct. | Tot. | OFF | TO | ||
| PHO | 80 | 40 | 30-70 | 42.3% | 10-29 | 33.5% | 11-14 | 78.3% | 42 | 7 | 12 | ||||
| ATL | 84 | ATL (+8.5) | Un (+3.3) | 42 | ATL (+4.5) | Un (+3.1) | 29-67 | 43.6% | 10-28 | 34.1% | 16-20 | 76.9% | 46 | 8 | 13 |
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| The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total. | |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Atlanta covered the spread 719 times, while Phoenix covered the spread 281 times. Edge against the spread=Atlanta. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 578 games went under the total, while 394 games went over the total. Edge against the total=Under. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Atlanta won the game straight up 574 times, while Phoenix won 396 times. Edge on the money line=Atlanta. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Atlanta covered the first half line 668 times, while Phoenix covered the first half line 332 times. Edge against the first half line=Atlanta. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 619 games went under the first half total, while 381 games went over the first half total. Edge against the first half total=Under. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Atlanta covered the 4 point teaser line 804 times, and failed to cover 196 times. Edge against the 4 point teaser line=Atlanta. |
| In 1000 simulated games, Phoenix covered the 4 point teaser line 396 times, and failed to cover 604 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 499 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 466 failed to go over. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 682 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 303 failed to go under. No Edge. |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
| Trends Favoring Phoenix. | |
|---|---|
| Bet on Phoenix on the money line when their opponents make 29% to 35% of their 3 pointers in a game. Phoenix record during the 2025 season: 9-1 (90%) with an average money line of -201. (+12.0 unit$, ROI=59.7%) The average score of these games was Mercury 90.5, Opponents 80.7. |
| Bet against Atlanta in away games on the 1st half line when they grab 8 to 12 offensive rebounds in a game. Atlanta record on the 1st half line since the 2024 season: 2-12 (14%) with an average 1st half line of -1.5. (-11.2 unit$, ROI=-67.9%) The average 1st half score of these games was Dream 37.9, Opponents 41.1. |
| Trends Favoring Atlanta. | |
|---|---|
| Bet against Phoenix in home games on the money line when they make 29% to 35% of their three point attempts in a game. Phoenix record since the 2024 season: 2-8 (20%) with an average money line of -140. (-14.0 unit$, ROI=-99.6%) The average score of these games was Mercury 80.1, Opponents 87.4. |
| Bet against Phoenix in home games on the money line in games where they force 13 to 18 turnovers. Phoenix record since the 2023 season: 3-15 (17%) with an average money line of +132. (-18.9 unit$, ROI=-104.7%) The average score of these games was Mercury 76.7, Opponents 84.5. |
| Trends Favoring Over. | |
|---|---|
| Bet over the 1st half total in Phoenix games when they make 40% to 44% of their shots in a game. The 1st half Over's record during the 2025 season: 8-1 (89%) with an average 1st half over/under of 81.5. (+6.9 unit$, ROI=69.7%) The average score of these games was Mercury 42.4, Opponents 45.4. |
| Trends Favoring Under. | |
|---|---|
| Bet under the total in Phoenix away games when they attempt 4 to 9 less free throws than opponents in a game. The Under's record since the 2024 season: 8-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 165.3. (+8.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%) The average score of these games was Mercury 71.0, Opponents 78.1. |
| Bet under the 1st half total in Atlanta games when they attempt 17 to 22 free throws in a game. The 1st half Under's record during the 2025 season: 9-1 (90%) with an average 1st half over/under of 81.5. (+7.9 unit$, ROI=71.8%) The average score of these games was Dream 39.9, Opponents 34.8. |
Glossary of Terms
Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.
Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.
Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.
Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.
H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.
3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.
FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.
Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.
OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.
TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.