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Starting Pitching Matchup Stats and Betting Trends

In the competitive landscape of Major League Baseball (MLB) betting, leveraging detailed starting pitcher matchup reports can be the difference between consistent wins and unpredictable losses. These reports offer a wealth of information that, when properly analyzed, can significantly enhance your betting strategy. Focusing on key statistics such as Earned Run Average (ERA), Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP), and innings pitched per start, alongside recent performance metrics like pitch counts, rest days, and performance streaks, provides bettors with the insights needed to make informed decisions. Additionally, understanding betting trends in current game conditions—highlighting good and bad performance records—further refines your ability to pick winners in MLB games. This comprehensive approach not only benefits traditional bettors but also offers substantial value to daily fantasy sports (DFS) players and fantasy baseball participants.

Key Performance Metrics: ERA, WHIP, and Innings Pitched per Start

JACK FLAHERTY - Statistics in Games Started
  Season Stat Totals Money Line   Run Line
Game Situation ERA WHIP W-L G IP IP/S R ER H HR BB SO W-L(Unit$) O-U W-L(Unit$)
All Starts 3.17 1.068 13-7 28 162.0 5.8 61 57 135 24 38 194 17-11 (+3.8) 15-12 15-13 (+1.6)
Last 3 Starts 6.43 1.643 1-1 3 14.0 4.7 10 10 14 3 9 14 2-1 (+1) 2-1 1-2 (-2)
Home Starts 3.44 1.118 5-4 12 73.3 6.1 29 28 66 12 16 86 7-5 (-0.3) 5-6 4-8 (-3.5)
Night Starts 3.40 1.133 8-5 17 95.4 5.6 40 36 84 15 24 118 10-7 (+2.6) 9-8 10-7 (+1.5)
Starts on Grass 3.15 1.057 9-7 23 134.4 5.8 51 47 111 21 31 163 13-10 (+0.6) 11-11 11-12 (-1.6)
vs. NL West 2.39 1.044 3-1 9 52.7 5.9 17 14 39 7 16 61 7-2 (+5.5) 3-6 5-4 (+1.8)

Earned Run Average (ERA)

ERA is a fundamental statistic that measures a pitcher's effectiveness by calculating the average number of earned runs they allow per nine innings pitched. A lower ERA indicates superior performance, as it reflects a pitcher’s ability to prevent the opposing team from scoring. For bettors, tracking a pitcher’s ERA over the season and within specific game conditions can highlight consistency and reliability. For instance, a pitcher with a consistently low ERA in high-pressure games suggests a high likelihood of maintaining strong performance, making them a safer bet for money line and run line wagers.

Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP)

WHIP provides insight into how many base runners a pitcher allows per inning, combining both walks and hits. A lower WHIP signifies that a pitcher is effective at limiting baserunners, reducing the chances of scoring opportunities for the opposing team. Bettors can use WHIP to gauge a pitcher’s control and ability to manage the game. For example, pitchers with a WHIP below 1.2 are typically adept at preventing runners, which can be a strong indicator when considering over/under bets, as fewer runners often correlate with lower total run scores.

Innings Pitched per Start

This metric reveals the average number of innings a pitcher completes in each game they start. Higher innings pitched per start indicate durability and the ability to sustain performance deep into games, which can be crucial for run line and money line bets. Bettors should pay attention to pitchers who consistently pitch six or more innings, as they are more likely to influence the game’s outcome significantly. Additionally, higher innings pitched can mean more opportunities for strikeouts and fewer chances for the opposing team to score, enhancing the value of related betting options.

Recent Performance Insights: Pitch Counts, Rest Days, and Performance Streaks

JACK FLAHERTY - Recent Starts
Date Opponent Score ML O-U Result Dec. PC IP R ER H HR BB SO
09/25/2024  SD  San Diego 4-3 -130 7.5o-20 Win,Under   100 5.0 3 3 4 1 3 5
09/19/2024  @MIA  @Miami 20-4 -185 8o-15 Win,Over W 96 6.0 3 3 5 2 2 5
09/14/2024  @ATL  @Atlanta 1-10 +105 7.5u-25 Loss,Over L 83 3.0 4 4 5 0 4 4
09/08/2024  CLE  Cleveland 4-0 -155 8.5o-15 Win,Under W 92 7.0 0 0 4 0 0 6
09/02/2024  @ARI  @Arizona 11-6 -130 9u-20 Win,Over W 96 5.2 1 1 5 0 3 7
08/27/2024  BAL  Baltimore 2-3 -185 8.5e-10 Loss,Under L 99 6.0 3 3 6 2 2 5
08/21/2024  SEA  Seattle 8-4 -190 8u-20 Win,Over W 99 5.2 2 1 5 0 1 5
08/15/2024  @MIL  @Milwaukee 4-6 -135 7.5e-10 Loss,Over   93 5.0 3 3 4 2 2 7
08/09/2024  PIT  Pittsburgh 9-5 -225 7.5e-10 Win,Over W 110 5.2 4 4 9 2 1 10
08/03/2024  @OAK  @Oakland 10-0 -165 7.5o-25 Win,Over W 99 6.0 0 0 5 0 1 7
07/24/2024  @CLE  @Cleveland 1-2 +125 7u-20 Loss,Under   96 6.0 1 0 3 0 2 6
07/19/2024  @TOR  @Toronto 5-4 +115 7.5u-20 Win,Over W 98 5.2 2 2 3 1 1 8
07/11/2024  CLE  Cleveland 10-1 -115 8u-20 Win,Over W 83 6.0 1 1 2 1 2 4
06/27/2024  @LAA  @LA Angels 0-5 -150 8.5u-15 Loss,Under L 98 5.2 5 5 7 3 1 7
06/21/2024  CHW  Chi White Sox 2-1 -175 7.5u-15 Win,Under W 98 5.2 1 1 5 1 2 8
06/15/2024  @HOU  @Houston 13-5 +105 7.5o-20 Win,Over W 73 5.0 0 0 3 0 1 6
06/04/2024  @TEX  @Texas 3-1 +100 7.5o-25 Win,Under W 60 5.0 0 0 2 0 0 4
05/30/2024  @BOS  @Boston 5-0 +105 7o-20 Win,Under W 104 6.2 0 0 1 0 1 9
05/23/2024  TOR  Toronto 1-9 +100 7.5o-15 Loss,Over L 103 6.0 3 3 7 2 1 9
05/18/2024  @ARI  @Arizona 8-3 +135 7.5e-10 Win,Over W 98 6.0 2 2 5 0 2 9
05/12/2024  HOU  Houston 3-9 -110 7.5o-15 Loss,Over L 99 6.2 3 3 7 1 0 7
05/06/2024  @CLE  @Cleveland 1-2 +100 7o-15 Loss,Under L 101 6.0 2 2 6 1 1 6
04/30/2024  STL  Saint Louis 1-2 -120 8.5o-15 Loss,Under   93 6.2 0 0 2 0 1 14
04/24/2024  @TAM  @Tampa Bay 5-7 -110 8u-15 Loss,Over   97 5.0 4 4 7 1 0 6
04/19/2024  @MIN  @Minnesota 5-4 +145 7u-25 Win,Over   97 6.0 4 2 4 1 1 10
04/14/2024  MIN  Minnesota 4-3 -125 8.5u-15 Win,Under   100 6.0 3 3 6 1 2 8
04/07/2024  OAK  Oakland 1-7 -210 8u-20 Loss,Push L 94 6.0 6 6 9 1 1 5
03/31/2024  @CHW  @Chi White Sox 3-2 -140 8u-25 Win,Under   87 6.0 1 1 4 1 0 7
09/15/2023  TAM  Tampa Bay 1-7 +110 8.5o-15 Loss,Under L 79 4.0 3 3 6 1 1 6
09/09/2023  @BOS  @Boston 13-12 +125 10e-10 Win,Over   82 3.0 5 4 8 1 1 3
09/03/2023  @ARI  @Arizona 8-5 +125 8.5e-10 Win,Over   85 4.2 4 4 6 2 1 7
08/27/2023  COL  Colorado 3-4 -250 9u-15 Loss,Under   84 5.2 3 3 7 1 1 3
08/15/2023  @SD  @San Diego 3-10 +100 8.5u-15 Loss,Over L 84 3.0 7 7 4 1 4 3
08/09/2023  HOU  Houston 2-8 -130 10u-15 Loss,Push L 98 5.0 3 3 6 1 2 8
08/03/2023  @TOR  @Toronto 6-1 +155 8o-15 Win,Under W 92 6.0 1 1 4 0 2 8
07/26/2023  @ARI  @Arizona 11-7 +140 8.5o-20 Win,Over   95 5.0 3 3 8 1 2 4
07/21/2023  @CHC  @Chicago Cubs 3-4 +125 8o-25 Loss,Under L 104 6.0 4 4 8 2 1 6
07/16/2023  WAS  Washington 8-4 -170 9.5e-10 Win,Over W 92 6.0 3 3 3 1 3 7
07/06/2023  @MIA  @Miami 3-0 +115 8u-25 Win,Under W 111 6.2 0 0 9 0 2 5
07/01/2023  NYY  NY Yankees 11-4 -130 9u-15 Win,Over W 96 6.0 0 0 4 0 2 4
06/19/2023  @WAS  @Washington 8-6 -140 10u-15 Win,Over W 99 6.0 6 6 10 0 1 5
06/13/2023  SF  San Francisco 3-11 -110 9u-15 Loss,Over L 101 4.0 6 6 10 0 3 3
06/07/2023  @TEX  @Texas 1-0 +125 9e-10 Win,Under   105 6.0 0 0 3 0 5 8
06/02/2023  @PIT  @Pittsburgh 5-7 -135 9.5o-15 Loss,Over   101 5.0 1 1 6 0 1 6
05/27/2023  @CLE  @Cleveland 2-1 -115 8.5u-15 Win,Under   101 7.0 1 1 7 0 1 4
05/21/2023  LAD  LA Dodgers 10-5 +120 8e-10 Win,Over   103 4.2 3 3 4 0 4 5
05/15/2023  MIL  Milwaukee 18-1 +100 8u-15 Win,Over W 105 7.0 0 0 3 0 2 10
05/09/2023  @CHC  @Chicago Cubs 6-4 +105 8o-15 Win,Over   93 5.0 3 3 7 1 5 3
05/04/2023  LAA  LA Angels 7-11 -170 8.5o-25 Loss,Over L 74 2.0 10 10 9 1 1 3
04/28/2023  @LAD  @LA Dodgers 3-7 +120 8.5o-20 Loss,Over L 110 4.2 5 4 7 1 2 7
04/23/2023  @SEA  @Seattle 7-3 -110 8.5e-10 Win,Over W 104 6.0 3 3 5 1 2 9
04/17/2023  ARI  Arizona 3-6 -140 8.5u-15 Loss,Over L 90 6.0 4 4 4 1 3 4
04/12/2023  @COL  @Colorado 7-4 -165 13u-20 Win,Under   85 5.0 2 1 5 1 1 6
04/07/2023  @MIL  @Milwaukee 0-4 +135 8.5e-10 Loss,Under L 94 5.0 2 2 4 0 6 3
04/01/2023  TOR  Toronto 4-1 +120 8u-15 Win,Under W 95 5.0 0 0 0 0 7 4

Pitch Counts

Monitoring recent pitch counts provides valuable information about a pitcher’s workload and fatigue levels. High pitch counts in recent starts may indicate that a pitcher is overworked, increasing the risk of diminished performance or injury. Conversely, pitchers with moderate pitch counts are often fresher and more effective. Bettors should consider a pitcher’s recent pitch counts to assess their readiness and potential effectiveness in upcoming games. For DFS players, pitchers with lower recent pitch counts might be preferable choices due to their increased likelihood of maintaining high performance levels.

Rest Days from Previous Start

Adequate rest between starts is essential for a pitcher’s recovery and subsequent performance. Pitchers who have had sufficient rest days tend to perform better, as they are physically and mentally prepared to deliver peak performances. Conversely, pitchers with minimal rest may be more susceptible to fatigue, leading to higher ERA and WHIP. Bettors should factor in the number of rest days a pitcher has had before their next start, using this information to predict their potential effectiveness. For fantasy baseball participants, ensuring that their pitchers have adequate rest can help in maximizing their pitching stats for optimal fantasy points.

Streaks of Good or Bad Performance

Performance streaks, whether positive or negative, offer insights into a pitcher’s current form. A pitcher on a winning streak with recent strong performances is likely to continue their success, providing a favorable outlook for money line and run line bets. On the other hand, a pitcher experiencing a losing streak may be struggling with consistency, making them a riskier option for bettors. Identifying these streaks allows bettors to capitalize on momentum and avoid pitchers who are in decline. Similarly, fantasy baseball managers can use streak information to make timely decisions about starting or benching pitchers based on their recent performances.

Betting Trends in Current Game Conditions: Identifying Good and Bad Performances

JACK FLAHERTY - Team betting records in pitcher starts
  All Games Home Games
  Money Line Run Line Ov/Un Money Line Run Line Ov/Un
Description W-L Unit$ W-L Unit$ O-U W-L Unit$ W-L Unit$ O-U
in all games 38-25 +7.1 34-29 +2.3 36-25 14-14 -7.9 9-19 -10.1 15-11
as a favorite of -110 or higher 21-16 -4.6 14-23 -7.3 21-14 11-12 -9.3 6-17 -10.1 12-9
when the total is 8 to 8.5 18-13 +1.8 15-16 -3.1 16-14 8-7 -3.4 6-9 -3 7-7
in home games 14-14 -7.9 9-19 -10.1 15-11 14-14 -7.9 9-19 -10.1 15-11
when the money line is -100 to -150 10-9 -1.4 6-13 -5 11-7 4-5 -2.1 2-7 -3.8 5-3
as a home favorite of -110 or higher 11-12 -9.3 6-17 -10.1 12-9 11-12 -9.3 6-17 -10.1 12-9
as a favorite of -125 to -175 12-7 +1.8 8-11 -1.8 11-7 6-4 -0 3-7 -3 5-4
at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 8-7 -3.4 6-9 -3 7-7 8-7 -3.4 6-9 -3 7-7
at home with a money line of -100 to -150 4-5 -2.1 2-7 -3.8 5-3 4-5 -2.1 2-7 -3.8 5-3
as a home favorite of -125 to -175 6-4 -0 3-7 -3 5-4 6-4 -0 3-7 -3 5-4
in the second half of the season 20-10 +7.5 19-11 +6.6 18-11 9-5 -0.2 6-8 -1.5 6-7
when playing on Saturday 8-1 +7.9 7-2 +4.5 7-2 2-0 +2.2 2-0 +2.5 1-1
in October games 0-0 0 0-0 0 0-0 0-0 0 0-0 0 0-0
vs. division opponents 15-8 +6.5 12-11 +0.7 11-12 7-3 +2.5 2-8 -6 5-5
when pitching in night games 20-16 +2.3 17-19 -6.5 20-15 7-7 -2.5 3-11 -9.3 8-5
when playing in the 1rst game of a playoff series 0-0 0 0-0 0 0-0 0-0 0 0-0 0 0-0
in playoff games 0-0 0 0-0 0 0-0 0-0 0 0-0 0 0-0
in the division series 0-0 0 0-0 0 0-0 0-0 0 0-0 0 0-0
when his team is off a win 17-13 -1.3 17-13 +3 20-10 6-8 -7.9 6-8 -1.2 9-5
when playing against a team with a winning record 16-12 +3.4 17-11 +5.9 16-11 7-6 -1.1 6-7 +0.1 8-4
when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) 10-8 +0.7 10-8 +1.8 9-8 5-5 -2 4-6 -1.6 5-4
vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season 9-9 -1.7 10-8 +1.6 9-8 6-4 +0.3 5-5 +1.1 5-4

Home vs. Away Games

Pitchers often perform differently based on the location of the game. Home pitchers may benefit from familiarity with the ballpark and supportive home crowds, potentially leading to better performances. Conversely, away pitchers might face challenges such as unfamiliar environments and hostile crowds, which can impact their effectiveness. Analyzing a pitcher’s home and away performance records helps bettors understand how location influences outcomes, allowing for more strategic money line and run line bets.

Performance Against Specific Opponents

Some pitchers excel against particular teams or types of offenses. By examining how a pitcher has historically performed against specific opponents, bettors can identify favorable matchups. For example, a pitcher who consistently limits runs against high-powered teams may be a strong candidate for over/under bets in games against those teams. Understanding these nuanced performance trends enables bettors to make more targeted and profitable wagers.

Weather and Ballpark Factors

Weather conditions and ballpark characteristics can significantly affect a pitcher’s performance. Wind patterns, temperature, and humidity can influence how well a pitcher controls the ball and the likelihood of home runs. Additionally, ballparks with larger outfields can reduce the number of home runs, benefiting pitchers with high strikeout rates. Bettors should consider these factors alongside pitcher matchup reports to anticipate how environmental conditions might impact the game’s outcome. For DFS players, selecting pitchers who thrive in specific weather and ballpark conditions can enhance their fantasy lineups’ performance.

Recent Betting Trends: Good vs. Bad Performance Records

Focusing on recent betting trends within the current game conditions provides bettors with actionable insights. For instance, a pitcher who has a strong win-loss record and positive unit profit in their current game conditions—such as night games or specific run line scenarios—indicates reliability and potential profitability. Conversely, pitchers with negative betting trends under the same conditions may pose higher risks. By concentrating on these performance records, bettors can make more nuanced and strategic bets, increasing their chances of picking winners consistently.

Value for Daily Fantasy Sports and Fantasy Baseball Participants

Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) Players

For DFS players, selecting pitchers who perform well in specific conditions is crucial for maximizing points. Starting pitcher matchup reports provide the data needed to identify pitchers who are likely to secure wins, achieve high strikeout numbers, and limit runs. By analyzing ERA, WHIP, and innings pitched per start, DFS players can construct lineups that include pitchers with the best potential for high fantasy scores. Additionally, understanding recent pitch counts and rest days ensures that pitchers are not overexerted, reducing the risk of poor performances that could negatively impact DFS scores.

Fantasy Baseball Participants

Fantasy baseball managers benefit from pitcher matchup reports by making informed roster decisions throughout the season. By tracking key stats and recent performance metrics, managers can identify which pitchers are in form and likely to contribute positively to their fantasy teams. For instance, pitchers with low ERA and WHIP and high innings pitched per start are valuable assets, as they provide consistent performances and contribute to multiple statistical categories. Moreover, analyzing betting trends in current game conditions helps fantasy managers anticipate future performances, allowing them to make strategic trades and waiver wire pickups that enhance their team’s overall competitiveness.

Integrating Pitcher Matchup Reports into Your Betting Strategy

To effectively utilize starting pitcher matchup reports, bettors should adopt a systematic approach:

  1. Analyze Key Statistics: Focus on ERA, WHIP, and innings pitched per start to gauge a pitcher’s overall effectiveness and durability. Lower ERA and WHIP values coupled with higher innings pitched indicate strong performance potential.
  2. Evaluate Recent Performance: Consider pitch counts, rest days, and performance streaks to assess a pitcher’s current form and readiness. Pitchers with manageable pitch counts and sufficient rest are more likely to perform well.
  3. Assess Betting Trends: Examine how pitchers perform under current game conditions, such as home vs. away games, specific opponents, and environmental factors. Identifying good and bad performance records in these contexts helps in making targeted bets.
  4. Combine with Other Data Points: Integrate pitcher matchup data with other relevant information, such as team offensive strengths, bullpen effectiveness, and defensive capabilities, to form a comprehensive betting strategy.
  5. Utilize Analytical Tools: Employ statistical models and analytical tools that incorporate pitcher matchup data to identify patterns and generate actionable insights automatically.
  6. Stay Updated: Continuously update your data sources with the latest pitcher performances and game conditions to ensure your betting strategy remains relevant and effective.

Conclusion

Starting pitcher matchup reports are indispensable tools for MLB bettors, offering deep insights into a pitcher’s performance across various game scenarios. By concentrating on key statistics like ERA, WHIP, and innings pitched per start, alongside recent performance indicators such as pitch counts, rest days, and performance streaks, bettors can develop a nuanced understanding of pitcher effectiveness. Furthermore, analyzing betting trends in current game conditions—highlighting both good and bad performance records—enables bettors to make strategic wagers with higher probabilities of success. For DFS players and fantasy baseball participants, these reports provide the critical data needed to optimize lineups, identify value picks, and make informed roster decisions. Integrating comprehensive pitcher matchup data into your betting and fantasy strategies not only enhances your analytical capabilities but also significantly boosts your chances of achieving consistent, profitable outcomes in the exciting realm of MLB betting.

Remember, while data-driven strategies can greatly improve your betting and fantasy performance, it’s essential to gamble responsibly and consider multiple factors before placing your bets.