Both StatSharp power rating systems and the game simulation leave little doubt that the Eagles are heavily favored in Super Bowl LIX. With the betting value squarely on Philadelphia, the data paints a picture of an offense and overall team performance that significantly outclasses Kansas City. The projections highlight not only a scoring edge but also key statistical advantages that bolster the Eagles’ likelihood of a convincing win.
| Projected Score and Power Ratings | Against Spread | Money Line | Over/Under | Team Over/Under | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Score | OffR | DefR | Line | ATS% | Edge | Line | Win% | Edge | Total | OU% | Edge | Total | Ov% | Edge | Un% | Edge |
 KCC |
19 | 29 | 8 | -2.5 | 19.2% | -120 | 23.1% | Over 48.5 | 49.3% | 24.5 | 32.6% | 67.4% | UN (+5.5) | ||||
 PHI |
29 | 37 | 10 | +2.5 | 80.8% | PHI (+12.5) | +100 | 76.9% | PHI (+26.9%) | Under 48.5 | 50.7% | UN (+0.5) | 23.5 | 64.5% | OV (+5.5) | 35.5% | |
The StatSharp power ratings give Philadelphia a marked advantage, with the system projecting a +7.5 edge over Kansas City. The game simulation further reinforces this narrative, projecting the Eagles to post a score of 29 compared to the Chiefs’ 19. More notably, the Eagles are expected to gain a full 1.2 yards per play over Kansas City—a gap that could prove decisive as the game unfolds. This robust statistical backing makes the betting value on Philadelphia particularly enticing for those looking to cash in on an edge.
Kansas City, meanwhile, has managed to skate by this season with an impressive 12-0 record in one-score games. This narrow-margin success, however, has done little to mask their mediocre underlying statistics. While the Chiefs have demonstrated an uncanny knack for winning close contests, the numbers suggest that their victories may be less a product of consistent skill and more the result of fortunate breaks in tightly contested games. Such reliance on close-game luck raises questions about their ability to perform when faced with a superior opponent.
The perennial debate over the Chiefs’ success in tight games is exemplified by the trio of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce. Some argue that their leadership and on-field execution are the result of high-caliber skill and strategic ingenuity. Others contend that the Chiefs have simply benefited from a series of improbable escapes, masking a statistical profile that might not hold up against a dominant performance like that projected from Philadelphia. In this context, the advantage afforded to the Eagles in efficiency metrics becomes even more significant.
| Average projected scores and game statistics. | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores, Edges | Rushing | Passing | Total | Turnovers | ||||||||||
| Teams | Score | Edge | H1Score | Edge | RA-RY | YPR | PA-PY | YPA | ATT-YDS | YPP | FL-INT | |||
| KCC |
19 | 8 | 24-90 | 3.8 | 35-184 | 5.2 | 59-274 | 4.6 | 1-1 | |||||
| PHI |
25 | PHI (+8.5) | Un (+4.4) | 11 | PHI (+3) | Un (+5.4) | 36-192 | 5.3 | 25-162 | 6.5 | 61-354 | 5.8 | 1-1 | |
A closer look at the projected game stats underscores where the matchup could be won or lost. Philadelphia’s running game is projected to be a major asset, with superior rushing statistics that should allow them to control the clock and set a physical tone early. In contrast, Kansas City’s passing efficiency is expected to be notably poor—a vulnerability that could exacerbate their inability to keep pace. For bettors, this presents potential value in prop bets, specifically wagers on Eagles’ rushing yard totals and possibly under bets on Kansas City’s passing metrics. In summary, while Kansas City has thrived in close games this season, the overwhelming statistical evidence from both StatSharp power ratings and game simulations indicates that the Eagles are primed for a dominant performance in Super Bowl LIX. The Chiefs’ one-score record, which once masked their shortcomings, may not be enough to counter Philadelphia’s superior running game and overall offensive efficiency. Bettors seeking value should consider the strong statistical tilt in favor of the Eagles, as the projected disparities suggest that Kansas City may struggle to keep the game within striking distance.