Traditional basketball box scores revolve around points, rebounds, and assists. While these can provide a general sense of a player’s performance, they often fall short in capturing overall impact and efficiency. Possession-based statistics aim to fill this gap by measuring contributions on a per-possession basis or by contextualizing individual actions within the flow of team offense and defense.
From a betting standpoint, advanced stats offer nuance that simple averages cannot match. Whether you are handicapping a full game or analyzing player prop bets, understanding usage rates, efficiency, and other advanced data points can give you an edge in predicting outcomes. Below, you will find descriptions of key stats, why they matter, how to interpret them, and strategies for applying them to game handicapping and player prop handicapping.
1. Usage Percentage (Usg%)
What It Is: Usage Percentage estimates the share of team possessions a player “uses” while on the floor, including all shots and turnovers.
Why It Matters: It shows how central a player is to the team’s offense. A high Usg% indicates more playmaking responsibility.
How to Interpret:
- High Usage: The offense largely flows through this player.
- Low Usage: The player is more of a role contributor.
Handicapping and Prop Strategy: If a high-usage player is missing, another player’s Usg% usually jumps, creating a good opportunity for overs on points or assists.
2. Floor Percentage
What It Is: Floor Percentage measures how often a player’s offensive possessions result in a scoring opportunity.
Why It Matters: It provides insight into how efficiently a player converts touches into scoring chances.
How to Interpret:
- High Floor%: The player routinely generates or converts offensive opportunities.
- Low Floor%: Many possessions end without a meaningful chance at scoring.
Handicapping and Prop Strategy: Players with both high Usage% and high Floor% are offensive linchpins who may exceed scoring props even if they do not shoot often.
3. Points Produced (PPr)
What It Is: Points Produced (PPr) tracks the total points a player creates through scoring and assists.
Why It Matters: It is an all-inclusive look at a player’s offensive impact on the scoreboard.
How to Interpret:
- High PPr: The player directly influences a large share of the team’s points.
- Low PPr: The player’s role may be defensive or secondary on offense.
Handicapping and Prop Strategy: PPr is especially useful for props involving points + assists, as it highlights overall scoring contributions.
4. Player Efficiency Rating (PER)
What It Is: PER is a metric that aggregates a player’s per-minute statistical production into one number, adjusting for missed shots and turnovers.
Why It Matters: It is a popular all-in-one stat for measuring box-score contributions.
How to Interpret:
- High PER: Consistent positive production across scoring and other box-score categories.
- Low PER: The player may struggle with efficiency or have a limited role.
Handicapping and Prop Strategy: When a high-PER player is sidelined, it can shift the line in spreads or totals significantly.
5. Offensive Rating (ORtg)
What It Is: Offensive Rating measures the points a player generates per 100 possessions.
Why It Matters: It highlights the efficiency with which the player scores or facilitates scoring.
How to Interpret:
- High ORtg: A strong indicator of scoring efficiency or effective playmaking.
- Low ORtg: Inefficiency, turnovers, or poor shot selection weigh it down.
Handicapping and Prop Strategy: Teams leaning on high-ORtg players might push a game over the posted total, especially if facing weak defenses.
6. Defensive Rating (DRtg)
What It Is: Defensive Rating quantifies how many points a player allows per 100 possessions. It factors in defensive rebounds, steals, blocks, and shot contests.
Why It Matters: It measures a player’s impact on preventing scoring.
How to Interpret:
- Lower DRtg: Strong individual defender, limiting opponent scoring.
- Higher DRtg: Opponents tend to score more efficiently against this player.
Handicapping and Prop Strategy: Multiple low-DRtg players on the same team can indicate better potential for an under.
7. Rating Differential (RtgD)
What It Is: Rating Differential (Net Rating) is ORtg minus DRtg, showing a player’s overall net impact.
Why It Matters: It indicates whether a player’s team outperforms or is outperformed during their minutes.
How to Interpret:
- Positive RtgD: The team scores more than it allows with this player on the floor.
- Negative RtgD: Opponents outscore the team when this player is in action.
Handicapping and Prop Strategy: Backups or bench players with unexpectedly strong RtgD can tilt certain matchups in unforeseen ways.
8. Effective Field Goal Percentage (EFG%)
What It Is: EFG% adjusts regular field goal percentage to account for the added value of three-pointers.
Why It Matters: It is a more accurate measure of shooting efficiency in the modern game.
How to Interpret:
- High EFG%: Indicates strong shooting, particularly from deep or near the rim.
- Low EFG%: Reliance on difficult shots or missed high-value attempts.
Handicapping and Prop Strategy: Facing weak perimeter defense, a high EFG% shooter is a strong candidate for an over on points.
9. Three-Point Rate (3FGR)
What It Is: 3FGR is the fraction of a player’s total field goal attempts taken as three-pointers.
Why It Matters: It indicates how reliant a player is on the three-point shot.
How to Interpret:
- High 3FGR: A perimeter-oriented game, generating more points quickly if successful.
- Low 3FGR: More mid-range or inside scoring attempts.
Handicapping and Prop Strategy: If an opponent defends the arc poorly, a high 3FGR player may exceed points props or help drive a game over.
10. Free Throw Proficiency (FTProf)
What It Is: FTProf gauges both how frequently a player draws fouls and their accuracy from the free throw line.
Why It Matters: Frequent trips to the line can alter game flow and pad scoring totals.
How to Interpret:
- High FTProf: The player excels at earning free throws and converting them.
- Low FTProf: Fewer attempts or subpar free throw shooting.
Handicapping and Prop Strategy: If an opponent commits many fouls, a high FTProf player can drive the total upward or surpass point prop lines.
11. True Shooting Percentage (TS%)
What It Is: TS% accounts for field goals, three-pointers, and free throws to measure overall shooting efficiency.
Why It Matters: It offers a holistic view of a player’s scoring efficiency across all shot types.
How to Interpret:
- High TS%: The player consistently takes and makes high-value shots (including free throws).
- Low TS%: Struggles with accuracy or takes inefficient shots.
Handicapping and Prop Strategy: A team packed with high TS% players can be reliable for overs, as they convert possessions at a high rate.
12. Offensive Rebound Percentage (OReb%)
What It Is: OReb% measures the percentage of offensive rebound opportunities a player grabs.
Why It Matters: Securing offensive boards creates additional scoring chances, impacting the overall point total.
How to Interpret:
- High OReb%: Provides more second-chance points.
- Low OReb%: The player does not extend possessions as much on offense.
Handicapping and Prop Strategy: High OReb% often bumps up a team’s scoring potential, favoring overs.
13. Defensive Rebound Percentage (DReb%)
What It Is: DReb% indicates how many defensive rebounds a player secures out of available opportunities.
Why It Matters: Reducing opponent second-chance opportunities is vital to strong defense.
How to Interpret:
- High DReb%: Ends opposing possessions consistently.
- Low DReb%: May allow opponents more put-backs.
Handicapping and Prop Strategy: Strong DReb% can help push a game under by limiting extra attempts for the opponent.
14. Assist Percentage (AST%)
What It Is: AST% measures the percentage of teammate field goals a player assists on while in the game.
Why It Matters: It reveals whether a player is a primary facilitator.
How to Interpret:
- High AST%: Orchestrates offense and creates shots for teammates.
- Low AST%: Focuses more on scoring or off-ball movement.
Handicapping and Prop Strategy: Pair a high AST% with a favorable matchup to consider overs for assist props.
15. Turnover Percentage (TO%)
What It Is: TO% quantifies the portion of a player’s possessions that end in a turnover.
Why It Matters: Turnovers can waste possessions and lead to easy transition points for opponents.
How to Interpret:
- High TO%: Risky ball handling or passing may hamper team efficiency.
- Low TO%: A careful approach to possession management.
Handicapping and Prop Strategy: If an offense is vulnerable to high-TO% players, the opposing team may have more fast-break scoring opportunities.
16. Assist-to-Turnover Ratio (A/TO)
What It Is: A/TO is the ratio of assists to turnovers, indicating how effectively a player balances creating shots versus losing possessions.
Why It Matters: It highlights a player’s playmaking efficiency.
How to Interpret:
- High A/TO: Steady distributor with few wasted possessions.
- Low A/TO: A tendency to commit turnovers that offset any assists.
Handicapping and Prop Strategy: Late-game scenarios often favor high A/TO players, potentially influencing in-game bets.
17. Block Percentage (BLK%)
What It Is: BLK% measures the share of opponent two-point attempts a player blocks.
Why It Matters: Rim protection can alter shot selection and reduce opponent efficiency.
How to Interpret:
- High BLK%: A major deterrent at the rim.
- Low BLK%: Less likely to alter shots inside.
Handicapping and Prop Strategy: Teams featuring multiple shot-blockers can lower overall field goal percentages, favoring unders.
18. Steal Percentage (STL%)
What It Is: STL% gauges how frequently a player forces a steal per defensive possession.
Why It Matters: Steals often lead to fast breaks and easy points.
How to Interpret:
- High STL%: Aggressive defense that disrupts the offense.
- Low STL%: More positional defense than gamble for steals.
Handicapping and Prop Strategy: High steals can boost scoring spurts, potentially pushing a game over the total.
19. Defensive Stops Percentage (Stop%)
What It Is: Stop% shows how frequently a player contributes to a defensive stop via forced misses, turnovers, or blocks.
Why It Matters: It isolates a player’s direct role in shutting down opponent possessions.
How to Interpret:
- High Stop%: A consistently disruptive force on defense.
- Low Stop%: Less direct involvement in halting offensive plays.
Handicapping and Prop Strategy: Teams with multiple high Stop% players may stifle an opponent’s scoring, leaning toward unders.
Theories and Strategies for Applying Advanced Stats
Context Over Averages: Monitor injuries, lineup changes, and roles, since usage can shift dramatically when key players are absent.
Synergy Between Stats: Combine metrics (like Usage% with Floor% or TS%) to confirm a scoring narrative or identify inefficiencies.
Sample Size: Avoid relying on very small sample sizes. Wait for consistent trends over multiple games.
Adjusting for Opponent Strength: Check the quality of defensive or offensive matchups when evaluating a stat like ORtg or DRtg.
Pace Considerations: High-paced teams can inflate certain stats, while low-paced teams reduce volume but sometimes improve efficiency.
Closing the Knowledge Gap: Public bettors often overlook subtle advanced metrics; using them can unveil edges.
Tracking Trends: Watch for spikes or slumps in a player’s advanced stats over multiple games, as these may indicate role changes or hidden issues.
Conclusion
Possession-based basketball statistics offer a richer, more nuanced view of both individual and team performance. Rather than focusing solely on points, rebounds, and assists, these advanced metrics help you discern who truly drives an offense, who anchors a defense, and where critical inefficiencies or advantages lie.
For handicappers, these stats can inform everything from game totals to player prop lines. You may detect when an emerging player’s strong net rating points to potential upsets or when an elite shot-blocker can hamper a high-powered offense. While no single metric can predict a game outright, combining Usage%, PER, ORtg/DRtg, EFG%, TS%, and other advanced data with contextual factors—like matchups and injuries—significantly enhances your ability to project performance.
Ultimately, integrating possession-based statistics into your analysis provides a deeper understanding of what happens on the court. This knowledge can guide more informed betting decisions, offering a strategic edge in the fast-evolving world of basketball analytics.