Handicapping baseball effectively requires more than just a cursory glance at team records or recent performances. The single most influential element in baseball betting is arguably the starting pitcher. Recognizing this, our specialized tip sheet is designed to give bettors comprehensive data to make informed decisions. This document will introduce you to the extensive pitcher-specific statistics and trends provided in our tip sheets, explaining how these insights can sharpen your handicapping strategies.
Overview of Starting Pitcher Content
| Yusei Kikuchi 2024 Team Betting Records in Games Started | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Money Line | Run Line | Over/Under | 1st 3 Inn. ML | 1st 3 Inn. ATS | 1st 3 Inn. Ov/Un | 1st 5 Inn. ML | 1st 5 Inn. ATS | 1st 5 Inn. Ov/Un | |||||||||||||
| Game Condition | W-L | Unit$ | W-L | Unit$ | Ov-Un-T | Ov$ | Un$ | W-L-T | Unit$ | W-L | Unit$ | Ov-Un | Ov$ | Un$ | W-L-T | Unit$ | W-L | Unit$ | Ov-Un | Ov$ | Un$ |
| All Games | 16-16 | -3.3 | 15-17 | -4.8 | 17-14-1 | +1.6 | -4.7 | 10-12-10 | -7.1 | 12-16 | -3.9 | 18-14 | -11.2 | +4.3 | 12-12-8 | -3.3 | 18-14 | -4.4 | 19-13 | -6.1 | +0.4 |
| Regular Season Games | 16-16 | -3.3 | 15-17 | -4.8 | 17-14-1 | +1.6 | -4.7 | 10-12-10 | -7.1 | 12-16 | -3.9 | 18-14 | -11.2 | +4.3 | 12-12-8 | -3.3 | 18-14 | -4.4 | 19-13 | -6.1 | +0.4 |
| Away Games | 8-6 | +1.2 | 9-5 | +4.4 | 6-8-0 | -2.9 | +1.4 | 7-3-4 | +3.5 | 8-3 | +4.9 | 7-7 | -8.3 | +4.6 | 7-4-3 | +2.0 | 4-10 | -3.5 | 7-7 | -7.4 | +4.1 |
| Regular Season Away Games | 8-6 | +1.2 | 9-5 | +4.4 | 6-8-0 | -2.9 | +1.4 | 7-3-4 | +3.5 | 8-3 | +4.9 | 7-7 | -8.3 | +4.6 | 7-4-3 | +2.0 | 4-10 | -3.5 | 7-7 | -7.4 | +4.1 |
| League Games | 16-16 | -3.3 | 15-17 | -4.8 | 17-14-1 | +1.6 | -4.7 | 10-12-10 | -7.1 | 12-16 | -3.9 | 18-14 | -11.2 | +4.3 | 12-12-8 | -3.3 | 18-14 | -4.4 | 19-13 | -6.1 | +0.4 |
| Day games | 5-9 | -4.7 | 6-8 | -4.0 | 9-5-0 | +3.7 | -4.9 | 5-7-2 | -3.7 | 5-6 | -1.6 | 7-7 | -7.8 | +4.2 | 5-7-2 | -3.6 | 6-8 | -5.4 | 8-6 | -2.8 | +0.4 |
1. Pitcher Team Game Betting Records
- Money Line Records: The straightforward metric indicating how profitable a team is when a specific pitcher starts, measured by win-loss records and unit earnings.
- Run Line Records: Insights into how teams perform against the run line (+/- 1.5 runs), providing valuable context for bettors looking to capitalize on close or blowout games.
- Over/Under Records: Historical trends on total runs scored in games, aiding bettors in making informed bets on game totals.
- Early Innings Metrics: Betting performance broken down specifically into first 3 innings and first 5 innings segments, offering strategies for bettors preferring shorter time frames and faster bet resolutions.
| Yusei Kikuchi 2024 Advanced Pitching Statistics | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERA Estimates | Percentages and Ratios | Pitcher Quality Score | |||||||||||||||||||
| Game Situation | ERA | xERA | ERC | FIP | dERA | DICE | SIERA | HR% | Str% | BB% | BB9 | SO% | SO9 | SOBB | PFR | LOB% | GOFO | Dom | Dom% | Dis | Dis% |
| All Games | 4.05 | 3.82 | 3.44 | 3.39 | 3.32 | 3.39 | 3.39 | 3.4% | 65.3% | 5.9% | 2.3 | 27.8% | 10.6 | 4.68 | 1.42 | 71.9% | 1.28 | 19 | 59.4% | 7 | 21.9% |
| Regular Season Games | 4.05 | 3.82 | 3.44 | 3.39 | 3.32 | 3.39 | 3.39 | 3.4% | 65.3% | 5.9% | 2.3 | 27.8% | 10.6 | 4.68 | 1.42 | 71.9% | 1.28 | 19 | 59.4% | 7 | 21.9% |
| Away Games | 4.27 | 4.11 | 3.84 | 3.66 | 3.58 | 3.66 | 3.66 | 3.3% | 64.0% | 7.4% | 2.9 | 26.2% | 10.2 | 3.52 | 1.45 | 75.0% | 1.48 | 7 | 50.0% | 5 | 35.7% |
| Regular Season Away Games | 4.27 | 4.11 | 3.84 | 3.66 | 3.58 | 3.66 | 3.66 | 3.3% | 64.0% | 7.4% | 2.9 | 26.2% | 10.2 | 3.52 | 1.45 | 75.0% | 1.48 | 7 | 50.0% | 5 | 35.7% |
| League Games | 4.05 | 3.82 | 3.44 | 3.39 | 3.32 | 3.39 | 3.39 | 3.4% | 65.3% | 5.9% | 2.3 | 27.8% | 10.6 | 4.68 | 1.42 | 71.9% | 1.28 | 19 | 59.4% | 7 | 21.9% |
| Day games | 5.32 | 5.09 | 4.92 | 3.40 | 3.34 | 3.40 | 3.41 | 3.0% | 64.5% | 6.4% | 2.6 | 25.9% | 10.5 | 4.05 | 1.46 | 66.0% | 1.36 | 6 | 42.9% | 5 | 35.7% |
| in Games Started | 4.05 | 3.82 | 3.44 | 3.39 | 3.32 | 3.39 | 3.39 | 3.4% | 65.3% | 5.9% | 2.3 | 27.8% | 10.6 | 4.68 | 1.42 | 71.9% | 1.28 | 19 | 59.4% | 7 | 21.9% |
2. Advanced Sabermetric Pitching Statistics
- ERA Estimates: xERA, ERC, FIP, DICE, and SIERA provide advanced metrics designed to predict pitcher effectiveness more accurately than traditional ERA.
- Strikeout and Walk Percentages: Indicators of pitcher control and dominance over hitters, essential for evaluating a pitcher's potential to sustain performance.
- Left on Base Percentage (LOB%): Reflects a pitcher's ability to manage stress innings, crucial for evaluating resilience under pressure.
- Batting Stats Against Pitchers: Including AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, and Extra Base Hit percentages, providing insights into how vulnerable a pitcher is to giving up impactful hits.
- Pitcher Quality Scores: Detailing dominant versus disaster start percentages, clearly illustrating pitcher consistency.
- Ground Out/Fly Out Ratio: Useful for identifying pitchers whose style may match or contrast with opponent tendencies or specific stadium effects.
Strategies for Utilizing Starting Pitcher Data
1. Evaluating Money Line Bets
Money line records for pitchers reveal more than just the pitcher’s individual talent—they encapsulate team performance and betting market perception. Analyze pitchers whose teams consistently outperform market expectations. Identifying pitchers who frequently deliver underdog wins or are overvalued as favorites can be profitable.
2. Exploiting Run Line Opportunities
Run line records give insight into a team's propensity to win convincingly or lose narrowly with specific pitchers. If a pitcher’s run line record shows frequent tight contests, it may indicate value in taking runs rather than laying them. Conversely, pitchers whose teams often win decisively offer potential value on the run line, reducing the juice compared to money line wagers.
3. Betting Over/Under Totals
Pitcher over/under records combined with advanced sabermetric stats provide strong signals. For example, pitchers with high strikeout rates, low walk percentages, and favorable advanced ERA metrics often lead to lower-scoring games. Identifying these pitchers can guide you confidently to under bets, particularly in matchups featuring equally dominant opposing starters.
4. Early Inning Betting Insights
Data covering the first 3 or 5 innings is invaluable for bettors who prefer to avoid bullpen volatility. A pitcher with consistently strong early-game performance, indicated by solid first 3 and first 5 innings money line and ATS records, presents excellent betting opportunities for early innings wagers.
5. Capitalizing on Advanced Sabermetric Trends
Advanced ERA metrics like FIP and SIERA are designed to normalize pitcher performance independent of defensive variances. Betting markets may undervalue these metrics, focusing primarily on traditional ERA. Bettors who rely on sabermetric indicators can exploit these discrepancies, especially when a pitcher’s ERA significantly diverges from advanced ERA estimates.
6. Utilizing Pitcher Quality Scores for Prop Bets
Pitcher quality scores distinguish dominant starts from disaster outings. A pitcher with a high dominant start percentage is reliable for strikeout or pitching props, while those with higher disaster rates present opportunities for opposing team total or player performance prop bets.
7. Ground Out/Fly Out Ratio and Venue Considerations
Pitchers with extreme ground out/fly out ratios can offer value depending on the ballpark and weather conditions. Fly-ball-heavy pitchers in hitter-friendly parks or on days conducive to carrying balls may present opportunities to bet overs or player home-run props. Conversely, ground-ball specialists in similar scenarios offer value on unders.
| YUSEI KIKUCHI - Team betting records in pitcher starts | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | Road Games | |||||||||
| Money Line | Run Line | Ov/Un | Money Line | Run Line | Ov/Un | |||||
| Description | W-L | Unit$ | W-L | Unit$ | O-U | W-L | Unit$ | W-L | Unit$ | O-U |
| against AL Central opponents | 13-20 | -12 | 12-21 | -9.8 | 16-14 | 7-9 | -1.2 | 8-8 | -1.2 | 9-6 |
| in all games | 73-80 | -11.7 | 78-75 | +0.1 | 83-63 | 38-40 | +4 | 49-29 | +14.9 | 44-31 |
| in road games | 37-40 | +2.9 | 48-29 | +13.9 | 43-31 | 37-40 | +2.9 | 48-29 | +13.9 | 43-31 |
| as a favorite of -110 or higher | 35-36 | -18.1 | 23-48 | -19.8 | 38-28 | 9-11 | -6.4 | 6-14 | -8 | 10-9 |
| when the total is 8 to 8.5 | 31-40 | -12.9 | 36-35 | +0.1 | 45-24 | 16-22 | -5.8 | 23-15 | +5.8 | 22-14 |
| when the money line is -100 to -150 | 29-25 | -1.8 | 20-34 | -7.2 | 33-18 | 10-8 | +0 | 7-11 | -2 | 11-7 |
| on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 | 15-22 | -6.9 | 22-15 | +4.8 | 21-14 | 15-22 | -6.9 | 22-15 | +4.8 | 21-14 |
| as a favorite of -125 to -175 | 20-17 | -4.4 | 13-24 | -7 | 23-10 | 5-6 | -3 | 3-8 | -4.8 | 8-2 |
| as a road favorite of -110 or higher | 9-11 | -6.4 | 6-14 | -8 | 10-9 | 9-11 | -6.4 | 6-14 | -8 | 10-9 |
| on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 | 10-8 | +0 | 7-11 | -2 | 11-7 | 10-8 | +0 | 7-11 | -2 | 11-7 |
| as a road favorite of -125 or more | 6-8 | -5.9 | 4-10 | -6.6 | 10-3 | 6-8 | -5.9 | 4-10 | -6.6 | 10-3 |
| as a road favorite of -125 to -175 | 5-6 | -3 | 3-8 | -4.8 | 8-2 | 5-6 | -3 | 3-8 | -4.8 | 8-2 |
| when playing on Thursday | 11-5 | +8.4 | 9-7 | +1.1 | 8-8 | 7-2 | +8.2 | 6-3 | +1.6 | 5-4 |
| when pitching in day games | 30-27 | +5.4 | 34-23 | +10.3 | 36-21 | 18-14 | +10.2 | 24-8 | +14.3 | 20-12 |
Practical Application of Recent Trends
Recent pitcher trends section of the tip sheet offers actionable insights into a pitcher’s current form. Identifying recent patterns—such as declining strikeout rates, increased walks, or rising WHIP—can uncover betting opportunities not immediately evident from season-long statistics. Incorporating recent performance alongside historical data ensures a balanced approach to assessing betting opportunities.
Example Betting Angles
- Under in Low Scoring Matchups: A strong pitcher with solid advanced ERA metrics facing an equally capable opposing pitcher strongly supports betting under the total.
- Early-Inning Domination: Pitchers who excel consistently in the first half of games present ideal first 3 or first 5 innings bets.
- Contrarian Betting: Pitchers whose traditional ERA is poor, but whose advanced metrics suggest better underlying performance, often provide profitable underdog wagers.
Conclusion
The comprehensive data provided in our Starting Pitcher Stats and Trends sheets offers bettors an extensive toolkit for more informed wagering. Whether betting the money line, run line, totals, or various inning-specific markets, our detailed pitching data and trend analysis empower smarter, data-driven baseball handicapping decisions. Remember, effective handicapping requires integrating traditional performance indicators with advanced analytics to consistently uncover value in the betting markets.