March Madness Handicapping using StatSharp Ratings

Final Four & Championship Contenders

Teams that combine elite Power Ratings with strong Strength of Schedule (SoS) metrics are prime title contenders. These teams have proven themselves against tough competition and are statistically a cut above the rest:

• Duke (31–3) - StatSharp’s top-ranked team with a Power Rating of 114. Duke dominated the ACC (conference rank #1) and has the nation’s best record. Their schedule strength is solid (SoS 93.0, rank 51) – not the most difficult among top teams, but Duke’s sheer efficiency and balanced play make them a favorite for the Final Four.
• Florida (30–4) - Boasts a Power Rating of 113 (No. 2 overall). The Gators faced a challenging slate (SoS 94.7, rank 25), indicating they’ve been tested by quality opponents. With an SEC title-caliber run and a 30-win season, Florida’s blend of high-powered offense and battle-tested experience positions them as a championship frontrunner.
• Houston (30–4) - Holds a 111 Power Rating (No. 3) and one of the toughest schedules in the country (SoS 95.9, rank 13). Now in the Big 12, Houston has consistently beaten top teams. Their defensive depth and efficient scoring make them a threat to reach the Final Four.
• Alabama (25–8) & Auburn (28–5) - Two SEC powers tied with a 109 Power Rating, making them both top-5 teams. They played the two hardest schedules in the nation (SoS ranks #1 and #2 respectively). Their toughness should translate into March, making them strong Final Four candidates.
• Tennessee (27–7) - Another contender with a 107 Power Rating (tied for 7th) and a top-tier SoS (96.2, rank 11). The Volunteers excel on defense and have proven themselves with quality wins, making them a tough matchup for any higher seed.

Potential Bracket Busters (High-Impact Lower Seeds)

Several lower-seeded teams (mid-seeds or underdogs) have metrics that suggest they could overachieve and upset more heralded opponents.

• North Carolina (22–13) - The Tar Heels had an up-and-down year, but they enter the tournament trending upward (Power Rating 103). Despite 13 losses, their SoS was a respectable 94.5 (rank 30), meaning they’ve been in battles with quality teams.
• Kansas (21–12) - Don’t be fooled by the 12 losses. Kansas owns a Power Rating of 101 and faced one of the nation’s most grueling schedules (SoS 97.6, rank 3).
• Illinois (21–12) - Illinois has a Power Rating around 101 and an SoS ranked in the top 10 nationally (96.6, #9). They’ve proven capable against tough Big Ten competition.
• Baylor (19–14) - If Baylor makes the field, they epitomize a bracket buster. Despite 14 losses, Baylor’s Power Rating sits at 102, and they played an extremely difficult schedule (SoS 97.1, rank 6).

Likely Early Exits (Overseeded or Vulnerable Favorites)

Some teams with high seeds have relatively weaker power ratings or soft schedules, raising red flags about their ability to live up to their seeding.

• St. John’s (30–4) - The Red Storm amassed an impressive record and likely earned a high seed by winning the Big East. However, their Power Rating (107) is on the lower end of the top-ten, and their schedule strength (SoS 92.9, rank 52) is considerably lower than that of other elite teams.
• Gonzaga (25–8) - Gonzaga is a perennial power and will get respect, but this year’s metrics suggest caution. Their Power Rating is 108, still very strong (ranked 6th), yet they took 8 losses and their SoS was just 90.1 (rank 78).
• Overseeded Conference Champs - Teams that rolled through weaker conferences could be in trouble. For example, VCU (28–6) won the Atlantic 10 and might land around a 7–10 seed. Yet VCU’s power rating (101) is nowhere near the true elite, and their schedule strength was very low (SoS 86.6, rank 112). That suggests their glossy record came against subpar teams. If matched up with a major-conference opponent in Round 1 or 2, VCU could struggle to keep up.
• Mid-Majors with Gaudy Records - Every year, some mid-major enters the tournament with a sparkling win-loss record and a relatively high seed, but StatSharp’s metrics can reveal if those teams might flop early. A prime example is Drake (30–3). Drake dominated the Missouri Valley, but their Power Rating is just 95 and their schedule was very weak (SoS rank 143). Similarly, the Big West champion UC San Diego (30–4) put up 30 wins but against one of the weakest schedules in Division I (SoS rank 266). These teams may earn favorable seeds but struggle when facing stronger competition.

Bottom Line

By aligning team seedings with StatSharp’s data-driven metrics, we can spot which favorites are truly solid and which might be paper tigers. High seeds with elite ratings and strong schedules are safe bets to advance, while those with weaker profiles could falter. Conversely, several lower seeds have the stats of much stronger teams, making them prime upset picks. Use these power ratings and SoS rankings as a guide – they suggest which matchups could produce surprises and which teams are built to survive and advance. The tournament is unpredictable, but going in with a data-driven outlook helps identify the likely Final Four contenders, this year’s Cinderella candidates, and the high seeds that might not live up to expectations. All that’s left is to enjoy the Madness!