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| Saturday, 04/26/2025 8:10 PM | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record | Starter | Open | Latest | |||||
| Gm# | W-L | Pitcher | ML | O/U | ML | O/U | RL | |
 ATL | 909 | 11-14 | HOLMES(R) | +105 | 9.5o-05 | +110 | 9.5o+05 | +1.5, -190 |
 ARI | 910 | 14-12 | KELLY(R) | -115 | 9.5u-15 | -120 | 9.5u-25 | -1.5, +165 |
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Tip SheetSimulation & Ratings🔒Betting Systems🔒Team Trends🔒Team StatsStarting PitchersLineupsBullpensSchedule & ResultsManagers🔒Umpire🔒Head-to-Head🔒
Starting Pitcher Report |
Analyze MLB starting pitcher betting stats, advanced pitching metrics, Sabermetric data, recent trends, and game results to inform smarter baseball betting decisions.
Key Pitcher Trends |
Explore top starting pitcher betting trends for upcoming games, covering records vs. the money line, run line, and over/under. Trends represent the record of the pitcher's team when starting and have displayed have a demonstrated edge against the line referenced.
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| Trends Favoring Under. | |
|---|---|
 | Bet under the total in MERRILL KELLY home starts in April games. The Under's record in his career: 10-1 (91%) with an average over/under of 8.9, money line=-110. (+9.0 unit$, ROI=67.9%) (Team's Record). The average score of these games was KELLY's team 2.4, Opponents 3.8. |
| Bet under the total in MERRILL KELLY home starts when pitching in night games. The Under's record since the 2023 season: 13-2 (87%) with an average over/under of 9.0, money line=-111. (+10.9 unit$, ROI=61.3%) (Team's Record). The average score of these games was KELLY's team 3.2, Opponents 3.3. |
| Bet under the total in MERRILL KELLY starts when his team is off 3 or more consecutive losses. The Under's record since the 2023 season: 6-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 9.3, money line=-109. (+6.1 unit$, ROI=92.4%) (Team's Record). The average score of these games was KELLY's team 2.7, Opponents 2.2. |
GRANT HOLMES Statistics |
These tables offer a comprehensive breakdown of a starting pitcher's performance in the current game. The first table details accumulated traditional stats—such as wins, losses, ERA, innings pitched, and other core metrics—across various game conditions. The second table presents advanced sabermetric analyses, including ERA estimates (xERA, ERC, FIP, dERA, DICE, SIERA), along with key ratios and percentages that assess pitching efficiency and quality. Together, these tables provide an in-depth evaluation of both standard and advanced pitching performance metrics under different game scenarios.
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| Grant Holmes 2025 Pitching Statistics | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Situation | W | L | ERA | G | GS | QS | QS% | CG | SHO | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | HBP | SO | WP | BK | WHIP | AVGa | OBPa | SLGa | OPSa | |
| All Games | 2 | 1 | 3.22 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | 0 | 22.3 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1.209 | 0.169 | 0.304 | 0.273 | 0.577 | |
| Regular Season Games | 2 | 1 | 3.22 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | 0 | 22.3 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1.209 | 0.169 | 0.304 | 0.273 | 0.577 | |
| Away Games | 1 | 1 | 4.97 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 0 | 12.7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.947 | 0.146 | 0.255 | 0.317 | 0.572 | |
| Regular Season Away Games | 1 | 1 | 4.97 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 0 | 12.7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.947 | 0.146 | 0.255 | 0.317 | 0.572 | |
| League Games | 2 | 1 | 3.22 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | 0 | 22.3 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1.209 | 0.169 | 0.304 | 0.273 | 0.577 | |
| Night Games | 1 | 1 | 4.02 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 0 | 0 | 15.7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1.213 | 0.170 | 0.302 | 0.302 | 0.603 | |
| in Games Started | 2 | 1 | 3.38 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | 0 | 21.3 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1.266 | 0.176 | 0.315 | 0.284 | 0.598 | |
| Over the Past 3 Seasons | 4 | 2 | 3.47 | 31 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 0 | 0 | 90.7 | 79 | 35 | 35 | 9 | 29 | 2 | 3 | 92 | 3 | 0 | 1.191 | 0.233 | 0.299 | 0.348 | 0.647 | |
| Over the past 2 months | 2 | 1 | 3.22 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | 0 | 22.3 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1.209 | 0.169 | 0.304 | 0.273 | 0.577 | |
| Over the last month | 2 | 1 | 3.22 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | 0 | 22.3 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1.209 | 0.169 | 0.304 | 0.273 | 0.577 | |
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| Grant Holmes 2025 Advanced Pitching Statistics | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERA Estimates | Percentages and Ratios | Pitcher Quality Score | |||||||||||||||||||
| Game Situation | ERA | xERA | ERC | FIP | dERA | DICE | SIERA | HR% | Str% | BB% | BB9 | SO% | SO9 | SOBB | PFR | LOB% | GOFO | Dom | Dom% | Dis | Dis% |
| All Games | 3.22 | 2.55 | 2.66 | 4.31 | 4.34 | 4.31 | 4.31 | 2.2% | 60.3% | 14.7% | 5.6 | 23.2% | 8.9 | 1.57 | 1.61 | 79.4% | 1.00 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 50.0% |
| Regular Season Games | 3.22 | 2.55 | 2.66 | 4.31 | 4.34 | 4.31 | 4.31 | 2.2% | 60.3% | 14.7% | 5.6 | 23.2% | 8.9 | 1.57 | 1.61 | 79.4% | 1.00 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 50.0% |
| Away Games | 4.97 | 2.21 | 1.92 | 5.15 | 5.34 | 5.15 | 5.15 | 4.3% | 64.1% | 12.0% | 4.3 | 18.0% | 6.4 | 1.50 | 1.18 | 54.3% | 1.33 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 50.0% |
| Regular Season Away Games | 4.97 | 2.21 | 1.92 | 5.15 | 5.34 | 5.15 | 5.15 | 4.3% | 64.1% | 12.0% | 4.3 | 18.0% | 6.4 | 1.50 | 1.18 | 54.3% | 1.33 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 50.0% |
| League Games | 3.22 | 2.55 | 2.66 | 4.31 | 4.34 | 4.31 | 4.31 | 2.2% | 60.3% | 14.7% | 5.6 | 23.2% | 8.9 | 1.57 | 1.61 | 79.4% | 1.00 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 50.0% |
| Night Games | 4.02 | 2.88 | 2.80 | 5.01 | 5.11 | 5.01 | 5.01 | 3.2% | 61.7% | 15.2% | 5.7 | 19.7% | 7.5 | 1.30 | 1.47 | 74.1% | 0.92 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 | 66.7% |
| in Games Started | 3.38 | 2.81 | 2.92 | 4.55 | 4.59 | 4.55 | 4.55 | 2.2% | 59.9% | 15.2% | 5.9 | 21.7% | 8.4 | 1.43 | 1.59 | 79.4% | 0.94 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 50.0% |
| Over the Past 3 Seasons | 3.47 | 3.35 | 3.17 | 3.42 | 3.38 | 3.42 | 3.35 | 2.4% | 65.5% | 7.6% | 2.9 | 24.0% | 9.1 | 3.17 | 1.33 | 77.2% | 1.32 | 3 | 27.3% | 6 | 54.5% |
| Over the past 2 months | 3.22 | 2.55 | 2.66 | 4.31 | 4.34 | 4.31 | 4.31 | 2.2% | 60.3% | 14.7% | 5.6 | 23.2% | 8.9 | 1.57 | 1.61 | 79.4% | 1.00 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 50.0% |
| Over the last month | 3.22 | 2.55 | 2.66 | 4.31 | 4.34 | 4.31 | 4.31 | 2.2% | 60.3% | 14.7% | 5.6 | 23.2% | 8.9 | 1.57 | 1.61 | 79.4% | 1.00 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 50.0% |
GRANT HOLMES Team Betting Records |
This table details team betting performances when the designated pitcher is starting. It breaks down win-loss records and unit values across multiple betting lines—including money line, run line, and over/under—as well as early inning metrics (first 3 and first 5 innings) under different game conditions.
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| Grant Holmes 2025 Team Betting Records in Games Started | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Money Line | Run Line | Over/Under | 1st 3 Inn. ML | 1st 3 Inn. ATS | 1st 3 Inn. Ov/Un | 1st 5 Inn. ML | 1st 5 Inn. ATS | 1st 5 Inn. Ov/Un | |||||||||||||
| Game Condition | W-L | Unit$ | W-L | Unit$ | Ov-Un-T | Ov$ | Un$ | W-L-T | Unit$ | W-L | Unit$ | Ov-Un | Ov$ | Un$ | W-L-T | Unit$ | W-L | Unit$ | Ov-Un | Ov$ | Un$ |
| All Games | 2-2 | -0.5 | 2-2 | +1.1 | 1-2-1 | -1.0 | +1.0 | 2-1-1 | +1.0 | 2-2 | +0.6 | 3-1 | +0.2 | -0.9 | 2-1-1 | +1.0 | 2-2 | +0.5 | 3-1 | +1.9 | -2.0 |
| Regular Season Games | 2-2 | -0.5 | 2-2 | +1.1 | 1-2-1 | -1.0 | +1.0 | 2-1-1 | +1.0 | 2-2 | +0.6 | 3-1 | +0.2 | -0.9 | 2-1-1 | +1.0 | 2-2 | +0.5 | 3-1 | +1.9 | -2.0 |
| Away Games | 1-1 | 0.0 | 1-1 | +0.3 | 1-1-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1-1-0 | 0.0 | 1-1 | +0.3 | 2-0 | +2.0 | -2.0 | 1-1-0 | 0.0 | 1-1 | +0.2 | 2-0 | +2.0 | -2.0 |
| Regular Season Away Games | 1-1 | 0.0 | 1-1 | +0.3 | 1-1-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1-1-0 | 0.0 | 1-1 | +0.3 | 2-0 | +2.0 | -2.0 | 1-1-0 | 0.0 | 1-1 | +0.2 | 2-0 | +2.0 | -2.0 |
| League Games | 2-2 | -0.5 | 2-2 | +1.1 | 1-2-1 | -1.0 | +1.0 | 2-1-1 | +1.0 | 2-2 | +0.6 | 3-1 | +0.2 | -0.9 | 2-1-1 | +1.0 | 2-2 | +0.5 | 3-1 | +1.9 | -2.0 |
| Night Games | 1-2 | -1.5 | 1-2 | -0.7 | 1-2-0 | -1.0 | +1.0 | 1-1-1 | 0.0 | 1-2 | -0.8 | 2-1 | -0.8 | +0.1 | 1-1-1 | 0.0 | 1-2 | -0.9 | 2-1 | +0.9 | -1.0 |
| Over the Past 3 Seasons | 5-6 | -3.9 | 4-7 | -2.5 | 6-4-1 | +1.6 | -2.4 | 6-2-3 | +3.5 | 7-4 | +3.9 | 8-3 | +1.2 | -2.9 | 7-2-2 | +4.4 | 7-4 | +5.6 | 8-3 | +3.8 | -4.6 |
| Over the past 2 months | 2-2 | -0.5 | 2-2 | +1.1 | 1-2-1 | -1.0 | +1.0 | 2-1-1 | +1.0 | 2-2 | +0.6 | 3-1 | +0.2 | -0.9 | 2-1-1 | +1.0 | 2-2 | +0.5 | 3-1 | +1.9 | -2.0 |
| Over the last month | 2-2 | -0.5 | 2-2 | +1.1 | 1-2-1 | -1.0 | +1.0 | 2-1-1 | +1.0 | 2-2 | +0.6 | 3-1 | +0.2 | -0.9 | 2-1-1 | +1.0 | 2-2 | +0.5 | 3-1 | +1.9 | -2.0 |
GRANT HOLMES Recent Starts |
Explore recent starting pitcher game results, including key metrics like ERA, WHIP, innings pitched, and game outcomes. Analyze individual performance trends.
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| GRANT HOLMES - Recent Starts | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Opponent | Score | ML | O-U | Result | Dec. | PC | IP | R | ER | H | HR | BB | SO |
| 04/20/2025 |  MIN | 6-2 | -105 | 8e-10 | Win,Push | W | 105 | 5.2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 04/14/2025 |  @TOR | 8-4 | -115 | 8.5o-15 | Win,Over | W | 94 | 7.2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 04/09/2025 |  PHI | 3-4 | -145 | 9u-25 | Loss,Under | 104 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | |
| 03/31/2025 |  @LAD | 1-6 | +190 | 8u-20 | Loss,Under | L | 89 | 4.0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 09/30/2024 |  NYM | 3-0 | -475 | 7.5e-10 | Win,Under | 53 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | |
| 09/22/2024 |  @MIA | 5-4 | -180 | 8.5o-20 | Win,Over | 62 | 4.0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| 09/17/2024 |  @CIN | 5-6 | -135 | 8.5o-15 | Loss,Over | 78 | 4.0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| 08/14/2024 |  @SF | 13-2 | +125 | 7.5o-15 | Win,Over | W | 95 | 7.0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 08/09/2024 |  @COL | 5-6 | -150 | 10.5u-20 | Loss,Over | 98 | 5.0 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | |
| 08/03/2024 | MIA | 3-4 | -235 | 9o-15 | Loss,Under | 70 | 4.2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| 07/29/2024 |  @MIL | 3-8 | +105 | 8u-15 | Loss,Over | 70 | 5.0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
GRANT HOLMES Career Team Betting Records |
This table displays detailed betting outcomes when a specific starting pitcher takes the mound. It breaks down team performance across money line, run line, and over/under markets under various conditions (e.g., road games, underdog scenarios, specific game situations) and supports customizable time windows—covering the pitcher’s entire career, the last three seasons, or the last two seasons.
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| GRANT HOLMES - Team betting records in pitcher starts | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | Road Games | |||||||||
| Money Line | Run Line | Ov/Un | Money Line | Run Line | Ov/Un | |||||
| Description | W-L | Unit$ | W-L | Unit$ | O-U | W-L | Unit$ | W-L | Unit$ | O-U |
| against NL West opponents | 1-2 | -1.3 | 1-2 | -1.2 | 2-1 | 1-2 | -1.3 | 1-2 | -1.2 | 2-1 |
| in all games | 5-6 | -3.4 | 4-7 | -4.3 | 6-4 | 3-4 | -1.6 | 2-5 | -4.1 | 6-1 |
| in road games | 3-4 | -1.6 | 2-5 | -4.1 | 6-1 | 3-4 | -1.6 | 2-5 | -4.1 | 6-1 |
| when the money line is +125 to -125 | 3-1 | +2.3 | 3-1 | +1.3 | 3-0 | 2-1 | +1.3 | 2-1 | +0.3 | 3-0 |
| on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 | 2-1 | +1.3 | 2-1 | +0.3 | 3-0 | 2-1 | +1.3 | 2-1 | +0.3 | 3-0 |
| as a road underdog of +100 or higher | 1-2 | -0.8 | 1-2 | -2.1 | 2-1 | 1-2 | -0.8 | 1-2 | -2.1 | 2-1 |
| as an underdog of +100 or higher | 1-2 | -0.8 | 1-2 | -2.1 | 2-1 | 1-2 | -0.8 | 1-2 | -2.1 | 2-1 |
| when the total is 9 to 9.5 | 0-2 | -3.8 | 0-2 | -2.1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0-0 |
| as an underdog of +100 to +150 | 1-1 | +0.3 | 1-1 | -1 | 2-0 | 1-1 | +0.3 | 1-1 | -1 | 2-0 |
| as a road underdog of +100 to +150 | 1-1 | +0.3 | 1-1 | -1 | 2-0 | 1-1 | +0.3 | 1-1 | -1 | 2-0 |
| on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0-0 |
| in April games | 2-1 | +0.6 | 2-1 | +1.3 | 1-1 | 1-0 | +1 | 1-0 | +1.3 | 1-0 |
| in the first half of the season | 2-1 | +0.6 | 2-1 | +1.3 | 1-1 | 1-0 | +1 | 1-0 | +1.3 | 1-0 |
| when playing on Saturday | 0-1 | -2.4 | 0-1 | -1.1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0-0 |
| when pitching in night games | 2-6 | -6.4 | 2-6 | -5 | 5-3 | 2-4 | -2.6 | 2-4 | -2.9 | 5-1 |
| when his team is off a win | 3-3 | -1.6 | 2-4 | -3.4 | 3-2 | 2-1 | +1.3 | 1-2 | -2.3 | 3-0 |
| vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse | 3-5 | -4 | 2-6 | -5.6 | 5-3 | 2-4 | -2.6 | 1-5 | -5.4 | 5-1 |
| vs. a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season (NL) | 0-1 | -1 | 0-1 | -1.1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | -1 | 0-1 | -1.1 | 0-1 |
| vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game | 5-6 | -3.4 | 4-7 | -4.3 | 6-4 | 3-4 | -1.6 | 2-5 | -4.1 | 6-1 |
| vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game | 1-1 | 0 | 1-1 | -0.1 | 0-2 | 0-1 | -1 | 0-1 | -1.1 | 0-1 |
| when playing against a team with a winning record | 2-3 | -1.5 | 2-3 | -1.8 | 2-3 | 1-2 | -1 | 1-2 | -1.8 | 2-1 |
MERRILL KELLY Statistics |
These tables offer a comprehensive breakdown of a starting pitcher's performance in the current game. The first table details accumulated traditional stats—such as wins, losses, ERA, innings pitched, and other core metrics—across various game conditions. The second table presents advanced sabermetric analyses, including ERA estimates (xERA, ERC, FIP, dERA, DICE, SIERA), along with key ratios and percentages that assess pitching efficiency and quality. Together, these tables provide an in-depth evaluation of both standard and advanced pitching performance metrics under different game scenarios.
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| Merrill Kelly 2025 Pitching Statistics | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Situation | W | L | ERA | G | GS | QS | QS% | CG | SHO | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | HBP | SO | WP | BK | WHIP | AVGa | OBPa | SLGa | OPSa | |
| All Games | 3 | 1 | 4.73 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 0 | 0 | 26.7 | 20 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1.163 | 0.200 | 0.286 | 0.360 | 0.646 | |
| Regular Season Games | 3 | 1 | 4.73 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 0 | 0 | 26.7 | 20 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1.163 | 0.200 | 0.286 | 0.360 | 0.646 | |
| Home Games | 2 | 0 | 2.38 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 0 | 11.3 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.059 | 0.150 | 0.277 | 0.225 | 0.502 | |
| Regular Season Home Games | 2 | 0 | 2.38 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 0 | 11.3 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.059 | 0.150 | 0.277 | 0.225 | 0.502 | |
| League Games | 3 | 1 | 4.73 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 0 | 0 | 26.7 | 20 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1.163 | 0.200 | 0.286 | 0.360 | 0.646 | |
| Night Games | 3 | 1 | 5.57 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 0 | 0 | 21.0 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1.333 | 0.222 | 0.315 | 0.420 | 0.735 | |
| in Games Started | 3 | 1 | 4.73 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 0 | 0 | 26.7 | 20 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1.163 | 0.200 | 0.286 | 0.360 | 0.646 | |
| Over the Past 3 Seasons | 23 | 11 | 3.58 | 52 | 52 | 27 | 51.9% | 0 | 0 | 302.0 | 242 | 127 | 120 | 38 | 107 | 0 | 7 | 299 | 4 | 6 | 1.156 | 0.219 | 0.292 | 0.379 | 0.671 | |
| Over the past 2 months | 3 | 1 | 4.73 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 0 | 0 | 26.7 | 20 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1.163 | 0.200 | 0.286 | 0.360 | 0.646 | |
| Over the last month | 3 | 1 | 4.73 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 0 | 0 | 26.7 | 20 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1.163 | 0.200 | 0.286 | 0.360 | 0.646 | |
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| Merrill Kelly 2025 Advanced Pitching Statistics | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERA Estimates | Percentages and Ratios | Pitcher Quality Score | |||||||||||||||||||
| Game Situation | ERA | xERA | ERC | FIP | dERA | DICE | SIERA | HR% | Str% | BB% | BB9 | SO% | SO9 | SOBB | PFR | LOB% | GOFO | Dom | Dom% | Dis | Dis% |
| All Games | 4.73 | 3.09 | 2.85 | 4.34 | 4.31 | 4.34 | 4.34 | 2.7% | 62.9% | 9.8% | 3.7 | 18.8% | 7.1 | 1.91 | 1.20 | 61.2% | 1.29 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 | 20.0% |
| Regular Season Games | 4.73 | 3.09 | 2.85 | 4.34 | 4.31 | 4.34 | 4.34 | 2.7% | 62.9% | 9.8% | 3.7 | 18.8% | 7.1 | 1.91 | 1.20 | 61.2% | 1.29 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 | 20.0% |
| Home Games | 2.38 | 1.32 | 1.65 | 4.07 | 4.33 | 4.07 | 4.10 | 0.0% | 64.4% | 12.8% | 4.8 | 10.6% | 4.0 | 0.83 | 0.97 | 69.2% | 2.13 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
| Regular Season Home Games | 2.38 | 1.32 | 1.65 | 4.07 | 4.33 | 4.07 | 4.10 | 0.0% | 64.4% | 12.8% | 4.8 | 10.6% | 4.0 | 0.83 | 0.97 | 69.2% | 2.13 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
| League Games | 4.73 | 3.09 | 2.85 | 4.34 | 4.31 | 4.34 | 4.34 | 2.7% | 62.9% | 9.8% | 3.7 | 18.8% | 7.1 | 1.91 | 1.20 | 61.2% | 1.29 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 | 20.0% |
| Night Games | 5.57 | 4.07 | 3.85 | 5.00 | 4.91 | 5.00 | 5.01 | 3.3% | 62.6% | 10.9% | 4.3 | 17.4% | 6.9 | 1.60 | 1.24 | 60.5% | 1.29 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 | 25.0% |
| in Games Started | 4.73 | 3.09 | 2.85 | 4.34 | 4.31 | 4.34 | 4.34 | 2.7% | 62.9% | 9.8% | 3.7 | 18.8% | 7.1 | 1.91 | 1.20 | 61.2% | 1.29 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 | 20.0% |
| Over the Past 3 Seasons | 3.58 | 3.31 | 3.05 | 3.89 | 3.82 | 3.89 | 3.89 | 3.1% | 64.6% | 8.5% | 3.2 | 23.7% | 8.9 | 2.79 | 1.34 | 75.6% | 1.83 | 33 | 63.5% | 7 | 13.5% |
| Over the past 2 months | 4.73 | 3.09 | 2.85 | 4.34 | 4.31 | 4.34 | 4.34 | 2.7% | 62.9% | 9.8% | 3.7 | 18.8% | 7.1 | 1.91 | 1.20 | 61.2% | 1.29 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 | 20.0% |
| Over the last month | 4.73 | 3.09 | 2.85 | 4.34 | 4.31 | 4.34 | 4.34 | 2.7% | 62.9% | 9.8% | 3.7 | 18.8% | 7.1 | 1.91 | 1.20 | 61.2% | 1.29 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 | 20.0% |
MERRILL KELLY Team Betting Records |
This table details team betting performances when the designated pitcher is starting. It breaks down win-loss records and unit values across multiple betting lines—including money line, run line, and over/under—as well as early inning metrics (first 3 and first 5 innings) under different game conditions.
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| Merrill Kelly 2025 Team Betting Records in Games Started | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Money Line | Run Line | Over/Under | 1st 3 Inn. ML | 1st 3 Inn. ATS | 1st 3 Inn. Ov/Un | 1st 5 Inn. ML | 1st 5 Inn. ATS | 1st 5 Inn. Ov/Un | |||||||||||||
| Game Condition | W-L | Unit$ | W-L | Unit$ | Ov-Un-T | Ov$ | Un$ | W-L-T | Unit$ | W-L | Unit$ | Ov-Un | Ov$ | Un$ | W-L-T | Unit$ | W-L | Unit$ | Ov-Un | Ov$ | Un$ |
| All Games | 4-1 | +3.3 | 3-2 | +0.9 | 2-2-1 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 2-2-1 | -0.1 | 3-2 | +0.1 | 4-1 | +2.2 | -2.6 | 3-1-1 | +1.9 | 4-1 | +2.9 | 4-1 | +3.1 | -3.5 |
| Regular Season Games | 4-1 | +3.3 | 3-2 | +0.9 | 2-2-1 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 2-2-1 | -0.1 | 3-2 | +0.1 | 4-1 | +2.2 | -2.6 | 3-1-1 | +1.9 | 4-1 | +2.9 | 4-1 | +3.1 | -3.5 |
| Home Games | 2-0 | +2.0 | 1-1 | +0.4 | 0-1-1 | -1.1 | +1.0 | 1-0-1 | +1.0 | 2-0 | +2.2 | 2-0 | +2.0 | -2.0 | 2-0-0 | +2.0 | 2-0 | +2.3 | 2-0 | +2.0 | -2.3 |
| Regular Season Home Games | 2-0 | +2.0 | 1-1 | +0.4 | 0-1-1 | -1.1 | +1.0 | 1-0-1 | +1.0 | 2-0 | +2.2 | 2-0 | +2.0 | -2.0 | 2-0-0 | +2.0 | 2-0 | +2.3 | 2-0 | +2.0 | -2.3 |
| League Games | 4-1 | +3.3 | 3-2 | +0.9 | 2-2-1 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 2-2-1 | -0.1 | 3-2 | +0.1 | 4-1 | +2.2 | -2.6 | 3-1-1 | +1.9 | 4-1 | +2.9 | 4-1 | +3.1 | -3.5 |
| Night Games | 3-1 | +2.0 | 2-2 | -0.1 | 2-1-1 | +1.0 | -1.4 | 2-1-1 | +0.9 | 3-1 | +1.7 | 4-0 | +4.0 | -4.0 | 3-1-0 | +1.9 | 3-1 | +1.9 | 4-0 | +4.1 | -4.6 |
| Over the Past 3 Seasons | 29-23 | +5.6 | 30-22 | +4.6 | 23-28-1 | -8.3 | +2.6 | 25-14-13 | +10.3 | 30-19 | +8.0 | 32-20 | -1.7 | -6.5 | 25-13-14 | +13.0 | 32-20 | +11.6 | 25-25 | -4.7 | -0.3 |
| Over the past 2 months | 4-1 | +3.3 | 3-2 | +0.9 | 2-2-1 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 2-2-1 | -0.1 | 3-2 | +0.1 | 4-1 | +2.2 | -2.6 | 3-1-1 | +1.9 | 4-1 | +2.9 | 4-1 | +3.1 | -3.5 |
| Over the last month | 4-1 | +3.3 | 3-2 | +0.9 | 2-2-1 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 2-2-1 | -0.1 | 3-2 | +0.1 | 4-1 | +2.2 | -2.6 | 3-1-1 | +1.9 | 4-1 | +2.9 | 4-1 | +3.1 | -3.5 |
MERRILL KELLY Recent Starts |
Explore recent starting pitcher game results, including key metrics like ERA, WHIP, innings pitched, and game outcomes. Analyze individual performance trends.
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| MERRILL KELLY - Recent Starts | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Opponent | Score | ML | O-U | Result | Dec. | PC | IP | R | ER | H | HR | BB | SO |
| 04/20/2025 |  @CHC | 3-2 | +130 | 7.5u-20 | Win,Under | 81 | 5.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| 04/15/2025 | @MIA | 10-4 | -150 | 9e-10 | Win,Over | W | 88 | 6.0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 04/08/2025 |  BAL | 4-3 | +105 | 9.5e-10 | Win,Under | W | 89 | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 04/03/2025 |  @NYY | 7-9 | +125 | 9.5u-30 | Loss,Over | L | 80 | 3.2 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 03/28/2025 | CHC | 8-1 | -150 | 9u-15 | Win,Push | W | 85 | 5.0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 09/27/2024 |  SD | 3-5 | -125 | 8.5o-25 | Loss,Under | L | 99 | 5.2 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| 09/21/2024 | @MIL | 5-0 | -105 | 8e-10 | Win,Under | W | 72 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 09/16/2024 | @COL | 2-3 | -165 | 11o-15 | Loss,Under | 83 | 6.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| 09/11/2024 |  TEX | 14-4 | -155 | 8.5e-10 | Win,Over | 68 | 4.0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| 09/05/2024 | @SF | 2-3 | +145 | 7o-20 | Loss,Under | 94 | 7.0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 8 | |
| 08/31/2024 | LAD | 6-8 | +120 | 9.5u-20 | Loss,Over | 83 | 5.0 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 08/25/2024 |  @BOS | 7-5 | +110 | 9o-20 | Win,Over | W | 101 | 6.0 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 08/18/2024 |  @TAM | 7-8 | -105 | 7.5u-15 | Loss,Over | 96 | 5.0 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| 08/11/2024 | PHI | 12-5 | +115 | 8.5u-20 | Win,Over | W | 85 | 5.0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 04/15/2024 | CHC | 2-3 | -145 | 9u-20 | Loss,Under | 95 | 5.0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| 04/09/2024 | @COL | 3-2 | -165 | 11u-15 | Win,Under | W | 96 | 6.0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 04/03/2024 | NYY | 5-6 | +110 | 8.5o-25 | Loss,Over | 91 | 7.0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| 03/29/2024 | COL | 7-3 | -235 | 9o-20 | Win,Over | W | 79 | 6.2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
MERRILL KELLY Career Betting Trends |
This table displays detailed betting outcomes when a specific starting pitcher takes the mound. It breaks down team performance across money line, run line, and over/under markets under various conditions (e.g., road games, underdog scenarios, specific game situations) and supports customizable time windows—covering the pitcher’s entire career, the last three seasons, or the last two seasons.
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| MERRILL KELLY - Team betting records in pitcher starts | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | Home Games | |||||||||
| Money Line | Run Line | Ov/Un | Money Line | Run Line | Ov/Un | |||||
| Description | W-L | Unit$ | W-L | Unit$ | O-U | W-L | Unit$ | W-L | Unit$ | O-U |
| against NL East opponents | 9-14 | -3.9 | 10-13 | -7.4 | 13-10 | 4-8 | -4.4 | 4-8 | -5.2 | 7-5 |
| in all games | 73-76 | +3.4 | 84-65 | +11.1 | 61-81 | 35-37 | -3.8 | 38-34 | +4.7 | 22-45 |
| in home games | 35-37 | -3.8 | 38-34 | +4.7 | 22-45 | 35-37 | -3.8 | 38-34 | +4.7 | 22-45 |
| when the money line is +125 to -125 | 36-35 | +1.6 | 43-28 | +9.5 | 32-36 | 18-20 | -1.9 | 22-16 | +4.6 | 12-24 |
| when the total is 9 to 9.5 | 29-22 | +8.3 | 32-19 | +12.7 | 16-30 | 21-19 | +2.6 | 24-16 | +8 | 10-25 |
| as a favorite of -110 or higher | 27-15 | +5.3 | 21-21 | +6.5 | 14-26 | 19-10 | +4.3 | 14-15 | +4.8 | 7-20 |
| at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 | 21-19 | +2.6 | 24-16 | +8 | 10-25 | 21-19 | +2.6 | 24-16 | +8 | 10-25 |
| at home when the money line is +125 to -125 | 18-20 | -1.9 | 22-16 | +4.6 | 12-24 | 18-20 | -1.9 | 22-16 | +4.6 | 12-24 |
| when the money line is -100 to -150 | 24-13 | +8.5 | 21-16 | +11.6 | 14-21 | 15-9 | +4 | 12-12 | +4 | 5-17 |
| as a home favorite of -110 or higher | 19-10 | +4.3 | 14-15 | +4.8 | 7-20 | 19-10 | +4.3 | 14-15 | +4.8 | 7-20 |
| at home with a money line of -100 to -150 | 15-9 | +4 | 12-12 | +4 | 5-17 | 15-9 | +4 | 12-12 | +4 | 5-17 |
| in the first half of the season | 34-36 | +0.8 | 40-30 | +6.6 | 29-39 | 14-21 | -8.5 | 19-16 | +3.3 | 8-25 |
| in April games | 14-13 | +4.2 | 16-11 | +1.8 | 9-17 | 3-9 | -5.6 | 6-6 | -1.1 | 1-10 |
| when playing on Saturday | 12-12 | +3.7 | 14-10 | +3.1 | 10-13 | 2-8 | -6.8 | 4-6 | -2.4 | 3-6 |
| when pitching in night games | 49-56 | -3.5 | 55-50 | -1.6 | 40-59 | 20-29 | -11.2 | 21-28 | -7.8 | 11-34 |
| when his team is off a loss | 41-46 | +1.9 | 49-38 | +5.7 | 31-50 | 19-19 | -0.4 | 22-16 | +7.1 | 9-25 |
| vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse | 46-46 | +3.7 | 51-41 | +5.4 | 38-49 | 24-20 | +4 | 23-21 | +3.6 | 15-25 |
| vs. a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL) | 26-19 | +9.2 | 28-17 | +9.8 | 23-21 | 12-7 | +4.6 | 10-9 | +2 | 8-10 |
| vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game | 66-73 | -2.1 | 77-62 | +6.8 | 59-74 | 31-35 | -6 | 34-32 | +2.5 | 21-41 |
| vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game | 24-38 | -8.7 | 31-31 | -7 | 25-32 | 13-16 | -1.5 | 16-13 | +2.6 | 9-17 |
| when playing against a team with a losing record | 30-23 | +3.8 | 29-24 | +2.3 | 21-30 | 14-12 | -1.2 | 12-14 | -0.6 | 8-17 |
| when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) | 13-9 | +1.8 | 12-10 | +0.5 | 10-11 | 7-4 | +2.3 | 5-6 | -1.4 | 2-9 |
Glossary of Terms
ERA (Earned Run Average): A statistic that measures a pitcher's effectiveness by calculating the average number of earned runs allowed per nine innings pitched.
WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched): A measure of the number of baserunners a pitcher has allowed per inning pitched, calculated as (Walks + Hits) / Innings Pitched.
W-L (Win-Loss Record): A statistic that shows the number of games a pitcher has won and lost as a starter.
G (Games Played): The total number of games in which the pitcher has appeared.
IP (Innings Pitched): The total number of innings a pitcher has thrown.
IP/S (Innings Pitched per Start): The average number of innings a pitcher completes in each game started.
R (Runs Allowed): The total number of runs the pitcher has allowed, including both earned and unearned runs.
ER (Earned Runs): The total number of earned runs the pitcher has allowed.
H (Hits Allowed): The total number of hits the pitcher has allowed.
HR (Home Runs Allowed): The total number of home runs the pitcher has allowed.
BB (Walks Issued): The total number of bases on balls (walks) the pitcher has issued.
SO (Strikeouts): The total number of batters the pitcher has struck out.
ML (Money Line): Indicates the odds for betting on a team's outright win. Positive numbers represent underdogs, and negative numbers represent favorites.
O/U (Over/Under): A betting line set by sportsbooks predicting the total number of runs scored in the game by both teams combined.
RL (Run Line): A betting option that allows a bettor to back a team to either win by more than a certain number of runs or to lose by fewer than a certain number of runs.
W-L (Unit$): The profit or loss in betting units based on the pitcher's team performance in the game, taking into account the money line odds.
O-U (Over-Under Record): The record of games where the total runs scored were over or under the predicted total set by sportsbooks.
Dec. (Decision): The outcome of the game for the pitcher, indicating whether they were credited with a win, loss, or no decision.
PC (Pitch Count): The total number of pitches thrown by the pitcher in a game.
Game Situation: The specific context or type of game situation being analyzed, such as all starts, last 3 starts, home starts, etc.
Opponent: The team the pitcher is facing in the specific game being referenced.
Score: The final score of the game in which the pitcher participated.
Result: The outcome of the game in terms of a win, loss, or push, along with the over/under result.
Money Line (Betting Records): The team's win-loss record and the total profit or loss in units when betting on the pitcher’s team, either in all games or specific types of games (e.g., home games, road games).
Run Line (Betting Records): The team's record and profit or loss when betting on the pitcher’s team with a run line bet.
Ov/Un (Over/Under Record): The team’s record when betting the over or under on the total runs in games the pitcher started.
Inter-League Game: A game between teams from the American League (AL) and National League (NL).
Day Games: Games that are played during the daytime, typically starting before 4:00 PM local time.
Grass Starts: Refers to games played on natural grass fields as opposed to artificial turf.
vs. (Versus): Indicates matchups between the pitcher’s team and other specified teams or conditions.