MLB Game Simulation Projections

MLB Game Simulation Projections

Swipe left to see more →

Traditional Ratings🔒Simulator Projections🔒

Explore the most comprehensive MLB game simulation score projections with detailed analysis of matchups, starting pitchers, and key betting metrics. This page features projected final scores, money line odds, run line advantages, and over/under estimates, all powered by advanced simulations. Stay ahead with insights into win probabilities, betting edges, and break-even percentages to make informed betting decisions. Updated regularly, this tool is a must-have for baseball bettors and fans seeking accurate MLB predictions and actionable insights.

Swipe left to see more →

Friday, July 4, 2025

11:05 AM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
BOS	Boston	GIOLITO(R)	5.3	-110	52.4%	44.2%		-1.5, +135	42.6%	30.2%		8o-15	11.4	OV (+3.4)
WAS	Washington	SOROKA(R)	6.1	+100	50.0%	55.8%	WAS (+5.8%)	+1.5, -155	60.8%	65.4%	WAS (+4.6%)	8u-05	11.4

Swipe left to see more →

1:05 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
CIN	Cincinnati	ABBOTT(L)	3.8	+140	41.7%	35.0%		+1.5, -155	60.8%	49.7%		8o-10	9.1	OV (+1.1)
PHI	Philadelphia	LUZARDO(L)	5.3	-150	60.0%	65.0%	PHI (+5.0%)	-1.5, +135	42.6%	50.3%	PHI (+7.8%)	8u-10	9.1

Swipe left to see more →

2:20 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
STL	Saint Louis	MIKOLAS(R)	4.7	+120	45.5%	35.9%		+1.5, -175	63.6%	48.3%		9.5o-20	11.0	OV (+1.5)
CHC	Chicago Cubs	REA(R)	6.4	-130	56.5%	64.1%	CHC (+7.5%)	-1.5, +155	39.2%	52.2%	CHC (+13.0%)	9.5uev	11.0

Swipe left to see more →

3:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
NYY	NY Yankees	STROMAN(R)	5.4	+125	44.4%	50.2%	NYY (+5.8%)	+1.5, -170	63.0%	61.2%		9.5o-05	10.9	OV (+1.4)
NYM	NY Mets	HAGENMAN(R)	5.4	-135	57.4%	49.8%		-1.5, +150	40.0%	35.4%		9.5u-15	10.9

Swipe left to see more →

4:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
TAM	Tampa Bay	LITTELL(R)	5.5	+100	50.0%	61.6%	TAM (+11.6%)	+1.5, -210	67.7%	71.3%	TAM (+3.6%)	9.5o-20	9.8	OV (+0.3)
MIN	Minnesota	PADDACK(R)	4.3	-110	52.4%	38.4%		-1.5, +175	36.4%	22.1%		9.5uev	9.8

Swipe left to see more →

4:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
PIT	Pittsburgh	FALTER(L)	2.7	+180	35.7%	37.6%	PIT (+1.8%)	+1.5, -125	55.6%	57.5%	PIT (+1.9%)	7o-15	6.3
SEA	Seattle	WOO(R)	3.6	-190	65.5%	62.4%		-1.5, +105	48.8%	37.9%		7u-05	6.3	UN (+0.7)

Swipe left to see more →

6:40 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
TEX	Texas	ROCKER(R)	3.5	-105	51.2%	36.1%		-1.5, +140	41.7%	16.7%		8.5o-10	8.2
SD	San Diego	VASQUEZ(R)	4.8	-105	51.2%	63.9%	SD (+12.7%)	+1.5, -160	61.5%	74.5%	SD (+13.0%)	8.5u-10	8.2	UN (+0.3)

Swipe left to see more →

7:07 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
LAA	LA Angels	HENDRICKS(R)	4.7	+150	40.0%	41.7%	LAA (+1.7%)	+1.5, -145	59.2%	54.3%		9.5o-05	10.3	OV (+0.8)
TOR	Toronto	LAUER(L)	5.6	-160	61.5%	58.3%		-1.5, +125	44.4%	44.3%		9.5u-15	10.3

Swipe left to see more →

7:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
MIL	Milwaukee	PRIESTER(R)	5.0	-120	54.5%	53.7%		-1.5, +125	44.4%	37.7%		8o-15	9.7	OV (+1.7)
MIA	Miami	ALCANTARA(R)	4.6	+110	47.6%	46.3%		+1.5, -145	59.2%	59.0%		8u-05	9.7

Swipe left to see more →

7:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
DET	Detroit	OLSON(R)	5.1	-115	53.5%	62.0%	DET (+8.5%)	-1.5, +130	43.5%	46.5%	DET (+3.0%)	8o-10	9.1	OV (+1.1)
CLE	Cleveland	CECCONI(R)	3.9	+105	48.8%	38.0%		+1.5, -150	60.0%	52.5%		8u-10	9.1

Swipe left to see more →

7:15 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
BAL	Baltimore	MORTON(R)	3.9	+160	38.5%	41.0%	BAL (+2.6%)	+1.5, -135	57.4%	55.7%		9o-10	8.7
ATL	Atlanta	STRIDER(R)	4.8	-170	63.0%	59.0%		-1.5, +115	46.5%	41.9%		9u-10	8.7	UN (+0.3)

Swipe left to see more →

8:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
CHW	Chi White Sox	HOUSER(R)	5.5	-120	54.5%	55.3%	CHW (+0.8%)	-1.5, +125	44.4%	41.0%		11o-15	10.5
COL	Colorado	SENZATELA(R)	4.9	+110	47.6%	44.7%		+1.5, -145	59.2%	56.8%		11u-05	10.5	UN (+0.5)

Swipe left to see more →

9:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
HOU	Houston	MCCULLERS(R)	5.8	+165	37.7%	40.9%	HOU (+3.2%)	+1.5, -135	57.4%	51.4%		9o-25	12.8	OV (+3.8)
LAD	LA Dodgers	CASPARIUS(R)	7.1	-175	63.6%	59.1%		-1.5, +115	46.5%	48.2%	LAD (+1.7%)	9u+05	12.8

Swipe left to see more →

9:40 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
KC	Kansas City	BUBIC(L)	3.5	+100	50.0%	36.6%		+1.5, -210	67.7%	52.4%		8.5oev	8.3
ARI	Arizona	RODRIGUEZ(L)	4.8	-110	52.4%	63.4%	ARI (+11.1%)	-1.5, +175	36.4%	46.5%	ARI (+10.1%)	8.5u-20	8.3	UN (+0.2)

Swipe left to see more →

10:05 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
SF	San Francisco	VERLANDER(R)	5.0	-105	51.2%	58.8%	SF (+7.6%)	-1.5, +140	41.7%	42.4%	SF (+0.8%)	10o-15	9.0
OAK	Athletics	SEARS(L)	4.1	-105	51.2%	41.2%		+1.5, -160	61.5%	55.4%		10u-05	9.0	UN (+1.0)

Glossary of Terms

Matchup: The competing teams for a specific game, with links to detailed matchup reports.

Pitchers: The starting pitchers for the matchup, including their throwing hand (L for left-handed, R for right-handed).

Score: The projected final scores for each team, based on simulation results.

Money Line: Betting odds for each team to win the game outright.

B.E. (Break-Even %): The percentage chance required for a bet to break even at the given odds.

Win%: The probability of a team winning based on simulations.

Edge: The projected advantage or disadvantage for a team, shown as a percentage difference between the simulation results and the betting odds.

Run Line: Betting odds for a team to win or lose by a specific margin (e.g., +1.5 or -1.5 runs).

O/U (Over/Under): The projected total number of runs scored in the game, compared to the bookmaker’s total.

Est. (Estimated Total): The projected total runs scored in the game, calculated from simulations.

OV/UN (Over/Under Edge): The difference between the projected total and the bookmaker’s total, highlighting potential betting value.

Updated: The last date and time when the simulations were run and updated.

Note: These projections are based on advanced simulations and aim to assist in analyzing betting opportunities.

MLB Game Simulation Projections

Existing User Login

Create New StatSharp Account