MLB Game Simulation Projections

MLB Game Simulation Projections

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Traditional Ratings🔒Simulator Projections🔒

Explore the most comprehensive MLB game simulation score projections with detailed analysis of matchups, starting pitchers, and key betting metrics. This page features projected final scores, money line odds, run line advantages, and over/under estimates, all powered by advanced simulations. Stay ahead with insights into win probabilities, betting edges, and break-even percentages to make informed betting decisions. Updated regularly, this tool is a must-have for baseball bettors and fans seeking accurate MLB predictions and actionable insights.

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Thursday, April 24, 2025

1:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
CHW	Chi White Sox	SMITH(R)	4.1	+190	34.5%	43.0%	CHW (+8.5%)	+1.5, -115	53.5%	57.2%	CHW (+3.7%)	7.5o-05	8.9	OV (+1.4)
MIN	Minnesota	PADDACK(R)	4.8	-210	67.7%	57.0%		-1.5, -105	51.2%	40.0%		7.5u-15	8.9

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1:35 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
SEA	Seattle	WOO(R)	4.6	+160	38.5%	54.7%	SEA (+16.2%)	+1.5, -135	57.4%	67.0%	SEA (+9.6%)	8o-05	8.7	OV (+0.7)
BOS	Boston	CROCHET(L)	4.1	-170	63.0%	45.3%		-1.5, +115	46.5%	26.6%		8u-15	8.7

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2:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
COL	Colorado	MARQUEZ(R)	2.2	+245	29.0%	17.9%		+1.5, +120	45.5%	36.2%		8o-05	7.2
KC	Kansas City	RAGANS(L)	5.0	-290	74.4%	82.1%	KC (+7.7%)	-1.5, -140	58.3%	70.6%	KC (+12.2%)	8u-15	7.2	UN (+0.8)

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3:45 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
MIL	Milwaukee	MYERS(R)	4.5	+145	40.8%	58.1%	MIL (+17.3%)	+1.5, -150	60.0%	70.1%	MIL (+10.1%)	7.5o-05	8.3	OV (+0.8)
SF	San Francisco	ROUPP(R)	3.8	-155	60.8%	41.9%		-1.5, +130	43.5%	22.3%		7.5u-15	8.3

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5:25 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
COL	Colorado	DOLLANDER(R)	3.3	+180	35.7%	35.0%		+1.5, -125	55.6%	51.5%		8.5o-20	8.0
KC	Kansas City	LORENZEN(R)	4.7	-190	65.5%	65.0%		-1.5, +105	48.8%	47.8%		8.5uev	8.0	UN (+0.5)

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5:25 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
COL	Colorado	DOLLANDER(R)	3.3	+170	37.0%	35.0%		+1.5, -130	56.5%	51.5%		8.5o-20	8.0
KC	Kansas City	LORENZEN(R)	4.7	-180	64.3%	65.0%	KC (+0.7%)	-1.5, +110	47.6%	47.8%	KC (+0.1%)	8.5uev	8.0	UN (+0.5)

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6:45 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
BAL	Baltimore	POVICH(L)	3.8	+110	47.6%	43.4%		+1.5, -190	65.5%	58.6%		8.5o-20	8.1
WAS	Washington	GORE(L)	4.4	-120	54.5%	56.6%	WAS (+2.0%)	-1.5, +165	37.7%	37.6%		8.5uev	8.1	UN (+0.4)

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9:29 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
PIT	Pittsburgh	MLODZINSKI(R)	4.3	+150	40.0%	35.8%		+1.5, -145	59.2%	49.2%		9o-05	10.1	OV (+1.1)
LAA	LA Angels	ANDERSON(L)	5.9	-160	61.5%	64.2%	LAA (+2.6%)	-1.5, +125	44.4%	51.0%	LAA (+6.6%)	9u-15	10.1

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9:40 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
TAM	Tampa Bay	RASMUSSEN(R)	3.6	+120	45.5%	22.2%		+1.5, -175	63.6%	35.1%		8.5o-05	10.7	OV (+2.2)
ARI	Arizona	BURNES(R)	7.1	-130	56.5%	77.8%	ARI (+21.3%)	-1.5, +155	39.2%	69.4%	ARI (+30.2%)	8.5u-15	10.7

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10:05 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
TEX	Texas	DEGROM(R)	4.3	-130	56.5%	43.3%		-1.5, +115	46.5%	25.7%		8.5o-25	9.2	OV (+0.7)
OAK	Athletics	GINN(R)	5.0	+120	45.5%	56.7%	OAK (+11.3%)	+1.5, -135	57.4%	68.0%	OAK (+10.6%)	8.5u+05	9.2

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Friday, April 25, 2025

2:20 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
PHI	Philadelphia	WALKER(R)	4.7	+120	45.5%	36.2%		+1.5, -175	63.6%	48.5%			11.1
CHC	Chicago Cubs	REA(R)	6.4	-130	56.5%	63.8%	CHC (+7.3%)	-1.5, +155	39.2%	52.0%	CHC (+12.7%)	NL	11.1

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6:40 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
BAL	Baltimore	YOUNG(R)	3.6	+105	48.8%	30.3%		+1.5, -200	66.7%	45.0%		8.5o-05	9.4	OV (+0.9)
DET	Detroit	MIZE(R)	5.7	-115	53.5%	69.7%	DET (+16.2%)	-1.5, +170	37.0%	56.9%	DET (+19.9%)	8.5u-15	9.4

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6:45 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
NYM	NY Mets	SENGA(R)	5.2		0.0%	67.6%		nl	0.0%	0.0%			8.7
WAS	Washington	IRVIN(R)	3.5		0.0%	32.4%		nl	0.0%	0.0%		NL	8.7

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7:05 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
TOR	Toronto	BERRIOS(R)	4.8	+120	45.5%	48.4%	TOR (+3.0%)	+1.5, -175	63.6%	60.7%		10o-10	9.7
NYY	NY Yankees	CARRASCO(R)	5.0	-130	56.5%	51.6%		-1.5, +155	39.2%	35.5%		10u-10	9.7	UN (+0.3)

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7:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
BOS	Boston	HOUCK(R)	3.3	-110	52.4%	41.3%		-1.5, +135	42.6%	18.9%		8.5o-30	7.3
CLE	Cleveland	LIVELY(R)	4.0	+100	50.0%	58.7%	CLE (+8.7%)	+1.5, -155	60.8%	71.8%	CLE (+11.0%)	8.5u+10	7.3	UN (+1.2)

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7:40 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
LAA	LA Angels	HENDRICKS(R)	3.6		0.0%	35.3%		nl	0.0%	0.0%			8.7
MIN	Minnesota	LOPEZ(R)	5.1		0.0%	64.7%		nl	0.0%	0.0%		NL	8.7

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7:40 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
HOU	Houston	WESNESKI(R)	3.6	-115	53.5%	47.2%		-1.5, +130	43.5%	24.7%		8oev	7.4
KC	Kansas City	LUGO(R)	3.8	+105	48.8%	52.8%	KC (+4.1%)	+1.5, -150	60.0%	67.3%	KC (+7.3%)	8u-20	7.4	UN (+0.6)

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8:15 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
MIL	Milwaukee	PATRICK(R)	5.1	+115	46.5%	55.0%	MIL (+8.4%)	+1.5, -180	64.3%	66.2%	MIL (+1.9%)	8o-10	9.6	OV (+1.6)
STL	Saint Louis	LIBERATORE(L)	4.6	-125	55.6%	45.0%		-1.5, +160	38.5%	28.3%		8u-10	9.6

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8:40 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
CIN	Cincinnati	ABBOTT(L)	4.4	-130	56.5%	46.8%		-1.5, +115	46.5%	29.0%		9.5o+10	9.1
COL	Colorado	FREELAND(L)	4.7	+120	45.5%	53.2%	COL (+7.8%)	+1.5, -135	57.4%	65.4%	COL (+7.9%)	9.5u-30	9.1	UN (+0.4)

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9:40 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
ATL	Atlanta	SALE(L)	4.2		0.0%	43.3%		nl	0.0%	0.0%			9.1
ARI	Arizona	GALLEN(R)	4.9		0.0%	56.7%		nl	0.0%	0.0%		NL	9.1

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9:40 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
MIA	Miami	QUANTRILL(R)	3.6	+220	31.3%	29.0%		+1.5, +100	50.0%	43.4%		7.5o-05	9.6	OV (+2.1)
SEA	Seattle	GILBERT(R)	5.9	-240	70.6%	71.0%	SEA (+0.4%)	-1.5, -120	54.5%	59.0%	SEA (+4.4%)	7.5u-15	9.6

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9:40 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
TAM	Tampa Bay	BAZ(R)	2.4		0.0%	25.9%		nl	0.0%	0.0%			6.6
SD	San Diego	KING(R)	4.2		0.0%	74.1%		nl	0.0%	0.0%		NL	6.6

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10:05 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
CHW	Chi White Sox	BURKE(R)	3.7	+195	33.9%	36.7%	CHW (+2.8%)	+1.5, -110	52.4%	52.1%		9o-15	8.6
OAK	Athletics	SEVERINO(R)	4.9	-215	68.3%	63.3%		-1.5, -110	52.4%	47.0%		9u-05	8.6	UN (+0.4)

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10:10 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
PIT	Pittsburgh	SKENES(R)	2.7		0.0%	32.0%		nl	0.0%	0.0%			6.8
LAD	LA Dodgers	YAMAMOTO(R)	4.1		0.0%	68.0%		nl	0.0%	0.0%		NL	6.8

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10:15 PM			Money Line				Run Line				Over/Under
Matchup	Pitchers	Score	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	Line	B.E.	Win%	Edge	O/U	Est.	Edge
TEX	Texas	EOVALDI(R)	3.4	+100	50.0%	41.4%		+1.5, -210	67.7%	57.8%		7.5o-15	7.6	OV (+0.1)
SF	San Francisco	VERLANDER(R)	4.2	-110	52.4%	58.6%	SF (+6.2%)	-1.5, +175	36.4%	38.5%	SF (+2.1%)	7.5u-05	7.6

Glossary of Terms

Matchup: The competing teams for a specific game, with links to detailed matchup reports.

Pitchers: The starting pitchers for the matchup, including their throwing hand (L for left-handed, R for right-handed).

Score: The projected final scores for each team, based on simulation results.

Money Line: Betting odds for each team to win the game outright.

B.E. (Break-Even %): The percentage chance required for a bet to break even at the given odds.

Win%: The probability of a team winning based on simulations.

Edge: The projected advantage or disadvantage for a team, shown as a percentage difference between the simulation results and the betting odds.

Run Line: Betting odds for a team to win or lose by a specific margin (e.g., +1.5 or -1.5 runs).

O/U (Over/Under): The projected total number of runs scored in the game, compared to the bookmaker’s total.

Est. (Estimated Total): The projected total runs scored in the game, calculated from simulations.

OV/UN (Over/Under Edge): The difference between the projected total and the bookmaker’s total, highlighting potential betting value.

Updated: The last date and time when the simulations were run and updated.

Note: These projections are based on advanced simulations and aim to assist in analyzing betting opportunities.

MLB Game Simulation Projections

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