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| Sunday, 04/20/2025 1:00 PM (ET) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1 | ||||||
| Gm# | Record | Open | Latest | ML | 1H | |
 MEM | 513 | 49-35 | 225.5 | 230 | 116 | |
 OKC | 514 | 68-15 | -12.5 | -13.5 | -8 | |
Matchup Content Menu |
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Tip SheetSimulation & Ratings🔒Betting Systems🔒Team Trends🔒Team StatsPlayers Stats & InjuriesSchedule & ResultsHead-to-Head🔒Coaches🔒
NBA Simulation & Power Ratings |
This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.
Power Rating Projections |
Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.
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| Power Rating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Rating | Estimate | Actual | Edge |
| MEM | 117 | MEM (+3) | ||
| OKC | 125 | -10 | -13 | |
Game Simulation Results |
This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores, Edges | Shooting | 3pt Shooting | Free Throws | Rebounding | |||||||||||
| Teams | Score | Edge | H1Score | Edge | 3FGM-A | Pct. | 3FGM-A | Pct. | FTM-A | Pct. | Tot. | OFF | TO | ||
| MEM | 108 | Ov (+1) | 54 | MEM (+0.5) | Ov (+0.2) | 40-93 | 43.2% | 13-38 | 33.7% | 16-19 | 81.8% | 55 | 13 | 14 | |
| OKC | 123 | OKC (+2) | 62 | 45-92 | 48.4% | 15-39 | 40.1% | 18-22 | 81.6% | 55 | 11 | 10 | |||
Simulation Line Covers |
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| The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total. | |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Oklahoma City covered the spread 520 times, while Memphis covered the spread 453 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 529 games went over the total, while 471 games went under the total. No Edge. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Oklahoma City won the game straight up 801 times, while Memphis won 182 times. Edge on the money line=Memphis. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Oklahoma City covered the first half line 508 times, while Memphis covered the first half line 492 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 479 games went over the first half total, while 476 games went under the first half total. No Edge. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Oklahoma City covered the 4 point teaser line 617 times, and failed to cover 360 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, Memphis covered the 4 point teaser line 540 times, and failed to cover 438 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 616 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 384 failed to go over. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 565 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 435 failed to go under. No Edge. |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
| Trends Favoring Oklahoma City. | |
|---|---|
| Bet on Oklahoma City when they allow 103 to 108 points in a game. Oklahoma City record during the 2025 season: 16-2 (89%) ATS with an average line of -10.0. (+13.8 unit$, ROI=66.0%). The average score of these games was Thunder 122.2, Opponents 105.3. |
| Bet on Oklahoma City when they score 121 or more points in a game. Oklahoma City record during the 2025 season: 30-10 (75%) ATS with an average line of -10.5. (+19.0 unit$, ROI=42.1%). The average score of these games was Thunder 130.9, Opponents 111.7. |
| Bet against Memphis when they score 103 to 108 points in a game. Memphis record during the 2025 season: 1-12 (8%) ATS with an average line of +0.2. (-12.2 unit$, ROI=-85.3%). The average score of these games was Grizzlies 105.6, Opponents 116.9. |
| Bet on Oklahoma City on the money line when they score 121 or more points in a game. Oklahoma City record since the 2023 season: 79-16 (83%) with an average money line of -268. (+62.3 unit$, ROI=24.5%) The average score of these games was Thunder 130.1, Opponents 114.6. |
| Bet against Memphis on the money line when they allow 121 or more points in a game. Memphis record since the 2024 season: 9-38 (19%) with an average money line of +117. (-35.8 unit$, ROI=-76.2%) The average score of these games was Grizzlies 117.0, Opponents 128.3. |
| Bet against Memphis on the money line when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game. Memphis record since the 2024 season: 9-30 (23%) with an average money line of +135. (-28.8 unit$, ROI=-73.7%) The average score of these games was Grizzlies 111.8, Opponents 119.0. |
| Bet against Memphis on the 1st half line when they allow 121 or more points in a game. Memphis record on the 1st half line since the 2024 season: 12-39 (24%) with an average 1st half line of +1.5. (-30.9 unit$, ROI=-53.0%) The average 1st half score of these games was Grizzlies 57.6, Opponents 65.5. |
| Trends Favoring Over. | |
|---|---|
| Bet over the total in Memphis games when they allow 121 or more points in a game. The Over's record during the 2025 season: 29-4 (88%) with an average over/under of 237.9. (+24.6 unit$, ROI=67.8%) The average score of these games was Grizzlies 123.1, Opponents 128.6. |
| Bet over the total in Oklahoma City games when they score 121 or more points in a game. The Over's record during the 2025 season: 33-8 (80%) with an average over/under of 230.4. (+24.2 unit$, ROI=53.7%) The average score of these games was Thunder 130.9, Opponents 111.7. |
| Bet over the total in Oklahoma City away or neutral games when their opponents make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game. The Over's record since the 2024 season: 24-6 (80%) with an average over/under of 228.7. (+17.4 unit$, ROI=52.7%) The average score of these games was Thunder 126.5, Opponents 110.4. |
Glossary of Terms
Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.
Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.
Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.
Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.
H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.
3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.
FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.
Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.
OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.
TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.