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| Wednesday, 04/23/2025 7:30 PM (ET) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 2 - Cleveland leads series 1 games to 0. | ||||||
| Gm# | Record | Open | Latest | ML | 1H | |
 MIA | 539 | 39-46 | 215.5 | 215 | +550 | 108.5 |
 CLE | 540 | 65-18 | -12 | -12 | -850 | -7 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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Tip SheetSimulation & Ratings🔒Betting Systems🔒Team Trends🔒Team StatsPlayers Stats & InjuriesSchedule & ResultsHead-to-Head🔒Coaches🔒
NBA Simulation & Power Ratings |
This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.
Power Rating Projections |
Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.
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| Power Rating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Rating | Estimate | Actual | Edge |
| MIA | 116 | MIA (+5) | ||
| CLE | 121 | -7 | -12 | |
Game Simulation Results |
This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores, Edges | Shooting | 3pt Shooting | Free Throws | Rebounding | |||||||||||
| Teams | Score | Edge | H1Score | Edge | 3FGM-A | Pct. | 3FGM-A | Pct. | FTM-A | Pct. | Tot. | OFF | TO | ||
| MIA | 111 | MIA (+5) | Ov (+13.2) | 56 | MIA (+4) | Ov (+7) | 42-90 | 47.0% | 14-36 | 38.2% | 13-16 | 77.8% | 50 | 12 | 13 |
| CLE | 117 | 59 | 44-91 | 48.0% | 15-42 | 36.3% | 15-19 | 75.9% | 55 | 14 | 13 | ||||
Simulation Line Covers |
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| The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total. | |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Miami covered the spread 619 times, while Cleveland covered the spread 368 times. Edge against the spread=Miami. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 782 games went over the total, while 202 games went under the total. Edge against the total=Over. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Cleveland won the game straight up 662 times, while Miami won 325 times. Edge on the money line=Miami. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Miami covered the first half line 603 times, while Cleveland covered the first half line 360 times. Edge against the first half line=Miami. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 710 games went over the first half total, while 290 games went under the first half total. Edge against the first half total=Over. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Cleveland covered the 4 point teaser line 457 times, and failed to cover 517 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, Miami covered the 4 point teaser line 691 times, and failed to cover 281 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 839 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 147 failed to go over. Edge against the 4 point teaser total=Over. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 286 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 693 failed to go under. No Edge. |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
| Trends Favoring Miami. | |
|---|---|
| Bet on Miami on the 1st half line when they attempt 16 to 20 free throws in a game. Miami record on the 1st half line since the 2024 season: 36-11 (77%) with an average 1st half line of 0.0. (+23.9 unit$, ROI=44.3%) The average 1st half score of these games was Heat 57.3, Opponents 51.4. |
| Trends Favoring Cleveland. | |
|---|---|
| Bet on Cleveland on the money line when they grab 4 to 9 more rebounds than their opponents in a game. Cleveland record during the 2025 season: 13-2 (87%) with an average money line of -469. (+11.0 unit$, ROI=15.6%) The average score of these games was Cavaliers 124.1, Opponents 110.1. |
| Bet on Cleveland on the money line when their opponents make 32% to 38% of their 3 pointers in a game. Cleveland record during the 2025 season: 18-3 (86%) with an average money line of -403. (+15.2 unit$, ROI=18.0%) The average score of these games was Cavaliers 121.1, Opponents 110.8. |
| Bet on Cleveland on the money line when their opponents make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game. Cleveland record since the 2024 season: 35-9 (80%) with an average money line of -344. (+24.6 unit$, ROI=16.2%) The average score of these games was Cavaliers 115.8, Opponents 106.9. |
| Bet against Miami on the money line when they allow 115 to 120 points in a game. Miami record during the 2025 season: 3-16 (16%) with an average money line of -118. (-21.8 unit$, ROI=-96.9%) The average score of these games was Heat 111.0, Opponents 117.7. |
| Bet against Miami on the money line when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game. Miami record during the 2025 season: 5-16 (24%) with an average money line of -108. (-18.6 unit$, ROI=-81.7%) The average score of these games was Heat 112.0, Opponents 114.4. |
| Bet on Cleveland in home games on the 1st half line when they make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game. Cleveland record on the 1st half line during the 2025 season: 13-0 (100%) with an average 1st half line of -6.0. (+13.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%) The average 1st half score of these games was Cavaliers 64.5, Opponents 52.0. |
| Trends Favoring Over. | |
|---|---|
| Bet over the total in Miami games when they allow 115 to 120 points in a game. The Over's record during the 2025 season: 19-1 (95%) with an average over/under of 218.3. (+17.9 unit$, ROI=81.4%) The average score of these games was Heat 111.0, Opponents 117.7. |
Glossary of Terms
Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.
Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.
Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.
Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.
H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.
3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.
FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.
Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.
OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.
TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.