More NBA Games |
Swipe left to see more →
| Monday, 05/05/2025 9:30 PM (ET) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Conference - Second Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1 | ||||||
| Gm# | Record | Open | Latest | ML | 1H | |
 DEN | 585 | 54-35 | 223 | 225 | +350 | 113.5 |
 OKC | 586 | 72-15 | -9.5 | -9.5 | -500 | -5.5 |
Matchup Content Menu |
Swipe left to see more →
Tip SheetSimulation & Ratings🔒Betting Systems🔒Team Trends🔒Team StatsPlayers Stats & InjuriesSchedule & ResultsHead-to-Head🔒Coaches🔒
NBA Simulation & Power Ratings |
This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.
Power Rating Projections |
Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.
Swipe left to see more →
| Power Rating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Rating | Estimate | Actual | Edge |
| DEN | 121 | DEN (+1.5) | ||
| OKC | 127 | -8 | -9.5 | |
Game Simulation Results |
This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.
Swipe left to see more →
| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores, Edges | Shooting | 3pt Shooting | Free Throws | Rebounding | |||||||||||
| Teams | Score | Edge | H1Score | Edge | 3FGM-A | Pct. | 3FGM-A | Pct. | FTM-A | Pct. | Tot. | OFF | TO | ||
| DEN | 107 | Ov (+3.8) | 54 | Ov (+1.1) | 40-88 | 45.8% | 11-32 | 34.9% | 16-21 | 73.5% | 53 | 11 | 15 | ||
| OKC | 122 | OKC (+4.5) | 61 | OKC (+1.5) | 45-93 | 48.3% | 15-39 | 38.5% | 16-20 | 81.4% | 53 | 12 | 10 | ||
Simulation Line Covers |
Swipe left to see more →
| The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total. | |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Oklahoma City covered the spread 622 times, while Denver covered the spread 378 times. Edge against the spread=Oklahoma City. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 572 games went over the total, while 406 games went under the total. Edge against the total=Over. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Oklahoma City won the game straight up 783 times, while Denver won 197 times. No Edge. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Oklahoma City covered the first half line 554 times, while Denver covered the first half line 446 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 526 games went over the first half total, while 474 games went under the first half total. No Edge. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Oklahoma City covered the 4 point teaser line 703 times, and failed to cover 297 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, Denver covered the 4 point teaser line 477 times, and failed to cover 523 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 657 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 327 failed to go over. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 497 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 482 failed to go under. No Edge. |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
| Trends Favoring Oklahoma City. | |
|---|---|
| Bet on Oklahoma City when they allow 103 to 108 points in a game. Oklahoma City record during the 2025 season: 16-3 (84%) ATS with an average line of -10.0. (+12.7 unit$, ROI=57.7%). The average score of these games was Thunder 121.8, Opponents 105.5. |
| Bet on Oklahoma City when they score 121 or more points in a game. Oklahoma City record during the 2025 season: 31-10 (76%) ATS with an average line of -10.6. (+20.0 unit$, ROI=43.3%). The average score of these games was Thunder 130.9, Opponents 111.0. |
| Bet on Oklahoma City in up-tempo games where they attempt 93 or more shots. Oklahoma City record during the 2025 season: 29-10 (74%) ATS with an average line of -10.3. (+18.0 unit$, ROI=40.9%). The average score of these games was Thunder 126.7, Opponents 109.6. |
| Bet against Denver when they score 103 to 108 points in a game. Denver record during the 2025 season: 0-10 (0%) ATS with an average line of +1.1. (-11.0 unit$, ROI=-90.9%). The average score of these games was Nuggets 105.3, Opponents 117.4. |
| Bet against Denver in home games when they allow 121 or more points in a game. Denver record since the 2024 season: 4-23 (15%) ATS with an average line of -3.1. (-21.3 unit$, ROI=-71.7%). The average score of these games was Nuggets 119.3, Opponents 126.3. |
| Bet against Denver in home games when they allow 121 to 127 points in a game. Denver record since the 2023 season: 5-27 (16%) ATS with an average line of -1.6. (-24.7 unit$, ROI=-70.2%). The average score of these games was Nuggets 115.8, Opponents 124.0. |
| Bet against Denver when they make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game. Denver record since the 2024 season: 7-30 (19%) ATS with an average line of -3.8. (-26.0 unit$, ROI=-60.6%). The average score of these games was Nuggets 108.6, Opponents 110.6. |
| Bet on Oklahoma City on the money line when they score 121 or more points in a game. Oklahoma City record since the 2023 season: 80-16 (83%) with an average money line of -276. (+63.3 unit$, ROI=23.9%) The average score of these games was Thunder 130.1, Opponents 114.3. |
| Bet against Denver on the money line when they score 103 to 108 points in a game. Denver record during the 2025 season: 1-10 (9%) with an average money line of -133. (-12.4 unit$, ROI=-84.6%) The average score of these games was Nuggets 105.3, Opponents 117.4. |
| Bet against Denver in home games on the money line when they allow 121 to 127 points in a game. Denver record since the 2024 season: 5-14 (26%) with an average money line of -209. (-26.2 unit$, ROI=-66.0%) The average score of these games was Nuggets 117.8, Opponents 123.8. |
| Bet against Denver on the money line when they allow 121 or more points in a game. Denver record since the 2024 season: 17-28 (38%) with an average money line of -257. (-49.1 unit$, ROI=-42.4%) The average score of these games was Nuggets 122.5, Opponents 127.0. |
| Bet against Denver on the money line when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game. Denver record during the 2025 season: 9-18 (33%) with an average money line of -187. (-33.1 unit$, ROI=-65.6%) The average score of these games was Nuggets 115.4, Opponents 119.6. |
| Trends Favoring Over. | |
|---|---|
| Bet over the total in Denver games when they allow 121 or more points in a game. The Over's record during the 2025 season: 29-4 (88%) with an average over/under of 234.1. (+24.6 unit$, ROI=67.8%) The average score of these games was Nuggets 124.1, Opponents 128.1. |
| Bet over the total in Denver games when they allow 121 to 127 points in a game. The Over's record since the 2024 season: 26-6 (81%) with an average over/under of 231.9. (+19.4 unit$, ROI=55.1%) The average score of these games was Nuggets 121.4, Opponents 123.5. |
| Bet over the total in Oklahoma City games when they score 121 or more points in a game. The Over's record during the 2025 season: 33-9 (79%) with an average over/under of 230.4. (+23.1 unit$, ROI=50.0%) The average score of these games was Thunder 130.9, Opponents 111.0. |
| Bet over the 1st half total in Denver games when they allow 121 or more points in a game. The 1st half Over's record during the 2025 season: 27-5 (84%) with an average 1st half over/under of 118.0. (+21.5 unit$, ROI=59.2%) The average score of these games was Nuggets 62.6, Opponents 64.2. |
| Bet over the 1st half total in Denver games when they allow 121 to 127 points in a game. The 1st half Over's record during the 2025 season: 16-3 (84%) with an average 1st half over/under of 118.0. (+12.7 unit$, ROI=57.7%) The average score of these games was Nuggets 62.9, Opponents 62.9. |
| Bet over the 1st half total in Denver away or neutral games when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game. The 1st half Over's record during the 2025 season: 12-1 (92%) with an average 1st half over/under of 116.0. (+10.9 unit$, ROI=70.8%) The average score of these games was Nuggets 61.4, Opponents 63.5. |
Glossary of Terms
Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.
Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.
Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.
Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.
H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.
3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.
FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.
Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.
OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.
TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.