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| Sunday, 05/11/2025 3:30 PM (ET) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Conference - Second Round - Best Of 7 - Game 4 - Denver leads series 2 games to 1. | ||||||
| Gm# | Record | Open | Latest | ML | 1H | |
 OKC | 571 | 73-17 | -6 | -6 | -250 | -3 |
 DEN | 572 | 56-36 | 227.5 | 227.5 | +200 | 114.5 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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Tip SheetSimulation & Ratings🔒Betting Systems🔒Team Trends🔒Team StatsPlayers Stats & InjuriesSchedule & ResultsHead-to-Head🔒Coaches🔒
NBA Simulation & Power Ratings |
This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.
Power Rating Projections |
Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.
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| Power Rating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Rating | Estimate | Actual | Edge |
| OKC | 128 | -6 | -6 | |
| DEN | 120 | |||
Game Simulation Results |
This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores, Edges | Shooting | 3pt Shooting | Free Throws | Rebounding | |||||||||||
| Teams | Score | Edge | H1Score | Edge | 3FGM-A | Pct. | 3FGM-A | Pct. | FTM-A | Pct. | Tot. | OFF | TO | ||
| OKC | 122 | OKC (+3) | Ov (+7.1) | 61 | OKC (+1) | Ov (+3.2) | 45-94 | 48.0% | 15-39 | 38.1% | 17-21 | 80.1% | 52 | 12 | 10 |
| DEN | 113 | 57 | 42-88 | 47.5% | 12-33 | 36.9% | 17-23 | 74.9% | 54 | 12 | 15 | ||||
Simulation Line Covers |
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| The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total. | |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Oklahoma City covered the spread 571 times, while Denver covered the spread 410 times. Edge against the spread=Oklahoma City. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 650 games went over the total, while 350 games went under the total. Edge against the total=Over. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Oklahoma City won the game straight up 693 times, while Denver won 285 times. No Edge. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Oklahoma City covered the first half line 534 times, while Denver covered the first half line 436 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 592 games went over the first half total, while 408 games went under the first half total. Edge against the first half total=Over. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Denver covered the 4 point teaser line 498 times, and failed to cover 472 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, Oklahoma City covered the 4 point teaser line 652 times, and failed to cover 326 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 746 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 254 failed to go over. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 430 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 570 failed to go under. No Edge. |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
| Trends Favoring Oklahoma City. | |
|---|---|
| Bet on Oklahoma City when they score 121 or more points in a game. Oklahoma City record during the 2025 season: 32-10 (76%) ATS with an average line of -10.6. (+21.0 unit$, ROI=44.4%). The average score of these games was Thunder 131.3, Opponents 110.9. |
| Bet on Oklahoma City on the money line when they score 121 or more points in a game. Oklahoma City record since the 2023 season: 81-16 (84%) with an average money line of -279. (+64.3 unit$, ROI=23.7%) The average score of these games was Thunder 130.3, Opponents 114.2. |
| Bet against Denver on the money line when they allow 121 or more points in a game. Denver record since the 2024 season: 17-29 (37%) with an average money line of -247. (-50.1 unit$, ROI=-44.0%) The average score of these games was Nuggets 122.2, Opponents 127.4. |
| Bet against Denver on the money line when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game. Denver record during the 2025 season: 9-18 (33%) with an average money line of -187. (-33.1 unit$, ROI=-65.6%) The average score of these games was Nuggets 115.4, Opponents 119.6. |
| Trends Favoring Denver. | |
|---|---|
| Bet on Denver in home games on the money line when they score 109 to 114 points in a game. Denver record since the 2023 season: 16-1 (94%) with an average money line of -279. (+15.4 unit$, ROI=32.5%) The average score of these games was Nuggets 111.5, Opponents 101.5. |
| Trends Favoring Over. | |
|---|---|
| Bet over the total in Oklahoma City games when they score 121 or more points in a game. The Over's record during the 2025 season: 34-9 (79%) with an average over/under of 230.4. (+24.1 unit$, ROI=51.0%) The average score of these games was Thunder 131.3, Opponents 110.9. |
| Bet over the total in Denver games when they allow 121 or more points in a game. The Over's record during the 2025 season: 30-4 (88%) with an average over/under of 234.0. (+25.6 unit$, ROI=68.4%) The average score of these games was Nuggets 123.6, Opponents 128.7. |
| Bet over the total in Denver games when they allow 121 to 127 points in a game. The Over's record since the 2024 season: 26-6 (81%) with an average over/under of 231.9. (+19.4 unit$, ROI=55.1%) The average score of these games was Nuggets 121.4, Opponents 123.5. |
| Bet over the 1st half total in Denver games when they allow 121 or more points in a game. The 1st half Over's record during the 2025 season: 28-5 (85%) with an average 1st half over/under of 117.5. (+22.5 unit$, ROI=60.2%) The average score of these games was Nuggets 62.4, Opponents 64.9. |
| Bet over the 1st half total in Denver games when they allow 121 to 127 points in a game. The 1st half Over's record during the 2025 season: 16-3 (84%) with an average 1st half over/under of 118.0. (+12.7 unit$, ROI=57.7%) The average score of these games was Nuggets 62.9, Opponents 62.9. |
Glossary of Terms
Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.
Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.
Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.
Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.
H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.
3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.
FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.
Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.
OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.
TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.