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Wednesday, 05/21/2025 8:00 PM (ET) 
Eastern Conference - Conference Finals - Best Of 7 - Game 1
 Gm#RecordOpenLatestML1H
 IND
 Indiana (4)
53357-34222.5222.5+145112
 NYK
 New York (3)
53459-35-3.5-3.5-165-2

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Tip SheetSimulation & Ratings🔒Betting Systems🔒Team Trends🔒Team StatsPlayers Stats & InjuriesSchedule & ResultsHead-to-Head🔒Coaches🔒

NBA Simulation & Power Ratings

This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.

Power Rating Projections

Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.

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 Power Rating
TeamsRatingEstimateActualEdge
 IND Indiana122-2 IND (+5.5)
 NYK New York118-3.5

Game Simulation Results

This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.

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Average projected scores and game statistics.
 Scores, EdgesShooting   3pt ShootingFree ThrowsRebounding 
TeamsScoreEdgeH1ScoreEdge3FGM-APct.3FGM-APct.FTM-APct.Tot.OFFTO
 IND Indiana113IND (+4.5)Ov (+3.4)56IND (+2)Ov (+1.3)42-8847.2%13-3635.5%17-2180.2%511113
 NYK New York113 57 42-9146.7%12-3436.8%16-2076.9%541313

Simulation Line Covers

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The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
In 1000 simulated games, Indiana covered the spread 602 times, while New York covered the spread 398 times.
Edge against the spread=Indiana.
In 1000 simulated games, 598 games went over the total, while 402 games went under the total.
Edge against the total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, Indiana won the game straight up 494 times, while New York won 482 times.
Edge on the money line=Indiana.
In 1000 simulated games, Indiana covered the first half line 530 times, while New York covered the first half line 438 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 521 games went over the first half total, while 446 games went under the first half total.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, New York covered the 4 point teaser line 506 times, and failed to cover 494 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, Indiana covered the 4 point teaser line 683 times, and failed to cover 317 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 683 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 317 failed to go over.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 507 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 493 failed to go under.
No Edge.

Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection

Trends Favoring Indiana.
Bet on Indiana on the money line when they allow 109 to 114 points in a game.
Indiana record during the 2025 season: 19-2 (90%) with an average money line of -265. (+16.9 unit$, ROI=30.3%)
The average score of these games was Pacers 121.0, Opponents 111.5.
Trends Favoring New York.
Bet against Indiana when they make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game.
Indiana record during the 2025 season: 5-22 (19%) ATS with an average line of -0.9. (-19.2 unit$, ROI=-64.6%).
The average score of these games was Pacers 113.0, Opponents 117.6.
Trends Favoring Under.
Bet under the 1st half total in New York games when they make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game.
The 1st half Under's record during the 2025 season: 22-6 (79%) with an average 1st half over/under of 113.0. (+15.4 unit$, ROI=50.0%)
The average score of these games was Knicks 53.0, Opponents 52.1.
Glossary of Terms

Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.

Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.

Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.

Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.

Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.

H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.

3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.

FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.

Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.

OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.

TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.