More CFB Games |
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| Thursday, 08/28/2025 5:30 PM | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gm# | Record | Open | Latest | ML | 1H | |
 BSU | 143 | 12-2 | -10 | -9.5 | -370 | -5.5 |
 USF | 144 | 7-6 | 63.5 | 63.5 | +290 | 32 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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College Football Simulation & Power Ratings |
StatSharp Power Rating Score Prediction |
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| Projected Score and Power Ratings | Against Spread | Money Line | Over/Under | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Score | OffR | DefR | Line | ATS% | Edge | Line | Win% | Edge | Total | OU% | Edge |
| BSU | 32 | 43 | 14 | -9.5 | 38.1% | -355 | 60.0% | Over 63.5 | 45.7% | |||
| USF | 28 | 41 | 10 | +9.5 | 61.9% | USF (+5.5) | +280 | 40.0% | USF (+13.6%) | Under 63.5 | 54.3% | UN (+3.5) |
Traditional Power Rating Projections |
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| Power Rating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Rating | Estimate | Actual | Edge |
| BSU | 38 | -8 | -9.5 | |
| USF | 28 | USF (+1.5) | ||
Game Simulation Results |
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores, Edges | Rushing | Passing | Total | Turnovers | ||||||||||
| Teams | Score | Edge | H1Score | Edge | RA-RY | YPR | PA-PY | YPA | ATT-YDS | YPP | FL-INT | |||
| BSU | 40 | BSU (+10.5) | 17 | BSU (+0.5) | 45-237 | 5.3 | 32-260 | 8.2 | 76-497 | 6.5 | 1-1 | |||
| USF | 19 | Un (+4.6) | 12 | Un (+2.7) | 33-135 | 4.1 | 31-197 | 6.4 | 64-332 | 5.2 | 1-1 | |||
Simulation Line Covers |
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| The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total. | |
 | In past games, the favorite covered the spread 67 times, while the underdog covered the spread 45 times. No Edge. |
| 34 games went under the total, while 31 games went over the total. No Edge. |
 | In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 96 times, while the underdog won 17 times. No Edge. |
 | In past games, the favorite covered the first half line 69 times, while the underdog covered the first half line 41 times. Edge against the first half line=Boise State. |
| 36 games went under the first half total, while 30 games went over the first half total. No Edge. |
 | In past games, the underdog covered the 6 point teaser line 63 times, and failed to cover 49 times. No Edge. |
| In past games, the favorite covered the 6 point teaser line 87 times, and failed to cover 27 times. No Edge. |
| 38 games went over the 6 point teaser total, while 27 failed to go over. No Edge. |
| 48 games went under the 6 point teaser total, while 17 failed to go under. No Edge. |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
| Trends Favoring Over. | |
|---|---|
| Bet over the 1st half total in USF games when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play. The 1st half Over's record since the 2023 season: 8-0 (100%) with an average 1st half over/under of 31.5. (+8.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%) The average score of these games was Bulls 15.9, Opponents 27.5. |
Teams: The names and logos of the football teams being compared in the simulation.
Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.
OffR (Offensive Rating): The offensive power rating of the team, reflecting their ability to score points.
DefR (Defensive Rating): The defensive power rating of the team, reflecting their ability to prevent the opponent from scoring.
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.
Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.
H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.
RA-RY (Rushing Attempts - Rushing Yards): The average number of rushing attempts and total rushing yards by the team.
YPR (Yards Per Rush): The average number of yards gained per rushing attempt.
PA-PY (Passing Attempts - Passing Yards): The average number of passing attempts and total passing yards by the team.
YPA (Yards Per Attempt): The average number of yards gained per passing attempt.
ATT-YDS (Total Plays - Total Yards): The total number of offensive plays and total yards gained by the team.
YPP (Yards Per Play): The average number of yards gained per offensive play.
FL-INT (Fumbles Lost - Interceptions): The average number of fumbles lost and interceptions thrown by the team.
Line (Against Spread): The point spread for the game, indicating the margin by which the favored team is expected to win.
ATS% (Against the Spread Percentage): The estimated probability of the team covering the point spread.
Edge (Against Spread): The value edge found by comparing the projected score to the actual point spread, indicating if there's a betting advantage.
Line (Money Line): The money line odds for the game, indicating the payout for a straight-up win.
Win% (Money Line Win Percentage): The estimated probability of the team winning the game outright.
Edge (Money Line): The value edge found by comparing the projected win percentage to the actual money line odds, indicating if there's a betting advantage.
Total (Over/Under): The projected total number of points scored in the game, used to determine if the game will go over or under the listed total.
OU% (Over/Under Percentage): The estimated probability of the total points going over or under the listed total.
Edge (Over/Under): The value edge found by comparing the projected total points to the actual over/under line, indicating if there's a betting advantage.
Note: The ratings and projections are calculated using a proprietary StatSharp power rating formula, designed to estimate scores and value edges against the spread, money line, over/under, and team total score over/under.