More CFB Games |
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| Monday, 09/01/2025 8:00 PM | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gm# | Record | Open | Latest | ML | 1H | |
 TCU | 233 | 8-4 | 58.5 | -2.5 | -140 | -1.5 |
 UNC | 234 | 6-7 | -2.5 | 59.5 | +120 | 30 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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College Football Simulation & Power Ratings |
StatSharp Power Rating Score Prediction |
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| Projected Score and Power Ratings | Against Spread | Money Line | Over/Under | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Score | OffR | DefR | Line | ATS% | Edge | Line | Win% | Edge | Total | OU% | Edge |
| TCU | 31 | 45 | 17 | -2.5 | 64.5% | TCU (+5.5) | -142 | 71.3% | TCU (+12.6%) | Over 59.5 | 42.7% | |
| UNC | 23 | 39 | 13 | +2.5 | 35.5% | +120 | 28.7% | Under 59.5 | 57.3% | UN (+5.5) | ||
Traditional Power Rating Projections |
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| Power Rating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Rating | Estimate | Actual | Edge |
| TCU | 39 | -10 | -2.5 | TCU (+7.5) |
| UNC | 27 | |||
Game Simulation Results |
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores, Edges | Rushing | Passing | Total | Turnovers | ||||||||||
| Teams | Score | Edge | H1Score | Edge | RA-RY | YPR | PA-PY | YPA | ATT-YDS | YPP | FL-INT | |||
| TCU | 36 | TCU (+3.5) | Ov (+7.7) | 16 | TCU (+0.5) | Ov (+0.4) | 29-109 | 3.7 | 37-321 | 8.6 | 67-430 | 6.4 | 1-1 | |
| UNC | 31 | 14 | 39-196 | 5.0 | 31-217 | 6.9 | 70-412 | 5.9 | 1-1 | |||||
Simulation Line Covers |
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| The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total. | |
 | In past games, the underdog covered the spread 54 times, while the favorite covered the spread 42 times. No Edge. |
| 72 games went over the total, while 38 games went under the total. Edge against the total=Over. |
 | In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 53 times, while the underdog won 46 times. No Edge. |
 | In past games, the underdog covered the first half line 59 times, while the favorite covered the first half line 40 times. No Edge. |
| 62 games went over the first half total, while 46 games went under the first half total. No Edge. |
 | In past games, the underdog covered the 6 point teaser line 80 times, and failed to cover 23 times. No Edge. |
| In past games, the favorite covered the 6 point teaser line 73 times, and failed to cover 29 times. No Edge. |
| 89 games went over the 6 point teaser total, while 21 failed to go over. No Edge. |
| 55 games went under the 6 point teaser total, while 54 failed to go under. No Edge. |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
| Trends Favoring TCU. | |
|---|---|
| Bet against North Carolina when they allow 28 or more points. North Carolina record since the 2023 season: 1-12 (8%) ATS with an average line of -5.0. (-12.2 unit$, ROI=-85.3%). The average score of these games was Tar Heels 31.2, Opponents 39.1. |
| Bet against North Carolina in home games when they score 28 or more points. North Carolina record since the 2024 season: 0-6 (0%) ATS with an average line of -13.2. (-6.6 unit$, ROI=-100.0%). The average score of these games was Tar Heels 38.0, Opponents 33.3. |
| Bet against North Carolina on the money line when they allow 28 or more points. North Carolina record since the 2024 season: 0-5 (0%) with an average money line of -169. (-9.2 unit$, ROI=-108.9%) The average score of these games was Tar Heels 31.8, Opponents 44.2. |
| Bet against North Carolina on the 1st half line when they allow 28 or more points. North Carolina record on the 1st half line since the 2023 season: 1-12 (8%) with an average 1st half line of -3.0. (-12.2 unit$, ROI=-85.3%) The average 1st half score of these games was Tar Heels 13.4, Opponents 19.8. |
Teams: The names and logos of the football teams being compared in the simulation.
Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.
OffR (Offensive Rating): The offensive power rating of the team, reflecting their ability to score points.
DefR (Defensive Rating): The defensive power rating of the team, reflecting their ability to prevent the opponent from scoring.
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.
Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.
H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.
RA-RY (Rushing Attempts - Rushing Yards): The average number of rushing attempts and total rushing yards by the team.
YPR (Yards Per Rush): The average number of yards gained per rushing attempt.
PA-PY (Passing Attempts - Passing Yards): The average number of passing attempts and total passing yards by the team.
YPA (Yards Per Attempt): The average number of yards gained per passing attempt.
ATT-YDS (Total Plays - Total Yards): The total number of offensive plays and total yards gained by the team.
YPP (Yards Per Play): The average number of yards gained per offensive play.
FL-INT (Fumbles Lost - Interceptions): The average number of fumbles lost and interceptions thrown by the team.
Line (Against Spread): The point spread for the game, indicating the margin by which the favored team is expected to win.
ATS% (Against the Spread Percentage): The estimated probability of the team covering the point spread.
Edge (Against Spread): The value edge found by comparing the projected score to the actual point spread, indicating if there's a betting advantage.
Line (Money Line): The money line odds for the game, indicating the payout for a straight-up win.
Win% (Money Line Win Percentage): The estimated probability of the team winning the game outright.
Edge (Money Line): The value edge found by comparing the projected win percentage to the actual money line odds, indicating if there's a betting advantage.
Total (Over/Under): The projected total number of points scored in the game, used to determine if the game will go over or under the listed total.
OU% (Over/Under Percentage): The estimated probability of the total points going over or under the listed total.
Edge (Over/Under): The value edge found by comparing the projected total points to the actual over/under line, indicating if there's a betting advantage.
Note: The ratings and projections are calculated using a proprietary StatSharp power rating formula, designed to estimate scores and value edges against the spread, money line, over/under, and team total score over/under.