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| Tuesday, 04/15/2025 7:37 PM | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record | Starter | Open | Latest | ||||
| Gm# | W-L-OTL PTS | Goalie | ML | O/U | ML | O/U | |
 FLA | 59 | 47-31-4, 98 pts. | VANECEK | +150 | 5.5o-10 | +175 | 5.5o-10 |
 TBL | 60 | 47-27-8, 102 pts. | VASILEVSKIY | -170 | 5.5u-10 | -205 | 5.5u-10 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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NHL Simulation & Power Ratings |
Power Rating Projections |
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| Teams | Actual Line | Estimated Line | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Goalie | ML | B.E. | ML | Win% | Edge% | |
| FLA | 3.00 | VANECEK | +175 | 36.4% | +165 | 37.8% | FLA (+1.4%) |
| TBL | 4.05 | VASILEVSKIY | -205 | 67.2% | -165 | 62.2% | |
Game Simulation Results |
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Line | Estimated Line | Over/Under | Projected Stats | ||||||||||
| Teams | Goalies | Score | ML | B.E. | ML | Win% | Edge | O/U | Est. | Edge | SOG | PP | AST |
| FLA | VANECEK | 1.22 | +175 | 36.4% | +434 | 18.7% | 5.5o-10 | 4.2 | 31 | 3-1 | 2 | ||
| TBL | VASILEVSKIY | 2.99 | -205 | 67.2% | -434 | 81.3% | TBL (+14.0%) | 5.5u-10 | 4.2 | UN (+1.3) | 27 | 4-1 | 6 |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
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| Trends Favoring Tampa Bay | |
|---|---|
 | Bet against Florida on the money line when they score 1 or less goals. Florida record during the 2025 season: 1-17 (6%) with an average money line of -162. (-26.6 unit$, ROI=-91.4%) The average score of these games was Panthers 0.7, Opponents 3.1. |
| Bet against Florida on the money line when they score 2 or less goals. Florida record during the 2025 season: 6-26 (19%) with an average money line of -171. (-36.9 unit$, ROI=-67.6%) The average score of these games was Panthers 1.3, Opponents 3.0. |
| Bet on Tampa Bay on the money line when they allow 1 or less goals. Tampa Bay record during the 2025 season: 22-0 (100%) with an average money line of -172. (+22.8 unit$, ROI=60.0%) The average score of these games was Lightning 4.3, Opponents 0.7. |
| Bet on Tampa Bay on the money line when they allow 2 or less goals. Tampa Bay record during the 2025 season: 34-7 (83%) with an average money line of -156. (+24.2 unit$, ROI=37.6%) The average score of these games was Lightning 3.8, Opponents 1.3. |
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| Trends Favoring Under | |
|---|---|
 | Bet under the total in Florida games when they score 1 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 17-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 5.8, money line=-112. (+17.3 unit$, ROI=85.4%) The average score of these games was Panthers 0.7, Opponents 3.1. |
| Bet under the total in Florida games when they score 2 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 26-5 (84%) with an average over/under of 5.7, money line=-113. (+20.7 unit$, ROI=57.3%) The average score of these games was Panthers 1.3, Opponents 3.0. |
| Bet under the total in Tampa Bay games when they allow 1 or less goals. The Under's record since the 2024 season: 28-7 (80%) with an average over/under of 6.2, money line=-106. (+20.9 unit$, ROI=53.1%) The average score of these games was Lightning 4.2, Opponents 0.7. |
| Bet under the total in Tampa Bay games when they allow 2 or less goals. The Under's record since the 2024 season: 47-15 (76%) with an average over/under of 6.2, money line=-107. (+31.6 unit$, ROI=45.2%) The average score of these games was Lightning 3.9, Opponents 1.3. |
Teams: The competing teams in the matchup.
Goalies: The starting goaltenders for each team.
Betting Lines
ML (Money Line): The odds for each team to win the game outright.
B.E. (Break-Even %): The implied probability of winning based on the money line.
Estimated ML: The projected money line based on power ratings and goaltender performance.
Win%: The projected win probability for each team based on simulations.
Edge%: The difference between the estimated and actual betting line, indicating potential value.
Game Simulation
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on simulations.
Over/Under (O/U): The projected total goals scored in the game.
Est. O/U: The estimated over/under based on simulations.
O/U Edge: The difference between the estimated and actual over/under total.
Projected Game Stats
SOG (Shots on Goal): The projected total number of shots on goal for each team.
PP (Power Play Goals): The projected number of power play goals scored by each team.
AST (Assists): The projected total assists for each team.
Trends & Insights
Trends Favoring Team: Historical betting trends that support one team based on past performance in similar matchups.
Trends Favoring Over/Under: Historical trends indicating whether games involving these teams tend to go over or under the total.