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| Sunday, 04/27/2025 6:30 PM | |||||||
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| NHL Playoffs - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 4 - Washington leads series 2 games to 1. | |||||||
| Record | Starter | Open | Latest | ||||
| Gm# | W-L-OTL PTS | Goalie | ML | O/U | ML | O/U | |
 WAS | 13 | 53-23-9, 115 pts. | THOMPSON | -120 | 6e-10 | -120 | 6e-10 |
 MON | 14 | 41-32-12, 94 pts. | MONTEMBEAULT | +100 | 6u-20 | +100 | 6u-20 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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NHL Simulation & Power Ratings |
Power Rating Projections |
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| Teams | Actual Line | Estimated Line | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Goalie | ML | B.E. | ML | Win% | Edge% | |
| WAS | 2.82 | THOMPSON | -120 | 54.5% | +117 | 46.0% | |
| MON | 3.09 | MONTEMBEAULT | +100 | 50.0% | -117 | 54.0% | MON (+4.0%) |
Game Simulation Results |
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Line | Estimated Line | Over/Under | Projected Stats | ||||||||||
| Teams | Goalies | Score | ML | B.E. | ML | Win% | Edge | O/U | Est. | Edge | SOG | PP | AST |
| WAS | THOMPSON | 2.51 | -120 | 54.5% | -130 | 56.5% | WAS (+1.9%) | 6e-10 | 4.7 | 30 | 3-1 | 5 | |
| MON | MONTEMBEAULT | 2.14 | +100 | 50.0% | +130 | 43.5% | 6u-20 | 4.7 | UN (+1.3) | 30 | 4-1 | 4 | |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
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| Trends Favoring Washington | |
|---|---|
 | Bet on Washington on the money line when they allow 2 or less goals. Washington record during the 2025 season: 35-3 (92%) with an average money line of -143. (+32.8 unit$, ROI=60.5%) The average score of these games was Capitals 3.6, Opponents 1.4. |
| Bet on Washington on the money line when they allow 2 goals. Washington record since the 2024 season: 28-6 (82%) with an average money line of -123. (+22.1 unit$, ROI=52.9%) The average score of these games was Capitals 3.6, Opponents 2.0. |
| Bet against Montreal on the money line when they score 2 or less goals. Montreal record during the 2025 season: 4-27 (13%) with an average money line of +147. (-22.0 unit$, ROI=-70.8%) The average score of these games was Canadiens 1.4, Opponents 3.6. |
| Bet against Montreal on the money line when they score 2 goals. Montreal record since the 2024 season: 4-33 (11%) with an average money line of +155. (-26.6 unit$, ROI=-70.0%) The average score of these games was Canadiens 2.0, Opponents 3.9. |
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| Trends Favoring Under | |
|---|---|
 | Bet under the total in Washington games when they allow 2 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 26-8 (76%) with an average over/under of 5.9, money line=-110. (+18.0 unit$, ROI=42.8%) The average score of these games was Capitals 3.6, Opponents 1.4. |
Teams: The competing teams in the matchup.
Goalies: The starting goaltenders for each team.
Betting Lines
ML (Money Line): The odds for each team to win the game outright.
B.E. (Break-Even %): The implied probability of winning based on the money line.
Estimated ML: The projected money line based on power ratings and goaltender performance.
Win%: The projected win probability for each team based on simulations.
Edge%: The difference between the estimated and actual betting line, indicating potential value.
Game Simulation
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on simulations.
Over/Under (O/U): The projected total goals scored in the game.
Est. O/U: The estimated over/under based on simulations.
O/U Edge: The difference between the estimated and actual over/under total.
Projected Game Stats
SOG (Shots on Goal): The projected total number of shots on goal for each team.
PP (Power Play Goals): The projected number of power play goals scored by each team.
AST (Assists): The projected total assists for each team.
Trends & Insights
Trends Favoring Team: Historical betting trends that support one team based on past performance in similar matchups.
Trends Favoring Over/Under: Historical trends indicating whether games involving these teams tend to go over or under the total.