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| Thursday, 05/01/2025 7:00 PM | |||||||
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| NHL Playoffs - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 6 - Toronto leads series 3 games to 2. | |||||||
| Record | Starter | Open | Latest | ||||
| Gm# | W-L-OTL PTS | Goalie | ML | O/U | ML | O/U | |
 TOR | 35 | 55-27-5, 115 pts. | STOLARZ | -105 | 5.5e-10 | -105 | 5.5e-10 |
 OTT | 36 | 47-31-9, 103 pts. | ULLMARK | -115 | 5.5u-20 | -115 | 5.5u-20 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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NHL Simulation & Power Ratings |
Power Rating Projections |
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| Teams | Actual Line | Estimated Line | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Goalie | ML | B.E. | ML | Win% | Edge% | |
| TOR | 4.07 | STOLARZ | -105 | 51.2% | -114 | 53.3% | TOR (+2.1%) |
| OTT | 3.73 | ULLMARK | -115 | 53.5% | +-114 | 46.7% | |
Game Simulation Results |
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Line | Estimated Line | Over/Under | Projected Stats | ||||||||||
| Teams | Goalies | Score | ML | B.E. | ML | Win% | Edge | O/U | Est. | Edge | SOG | PP | AST |
| TOR | STOLARZ | 2.87 | -105 | 51.2% | -216 | 68.4% | TOR (+17.2%) | 5.5e-10 | 4.7 | 30 | 3-1 | 5 | |
| OTT | ULLMARK | 1.79 | -115 | 53.5% | +216 | 31.6% | 5.5u-20 | 4.7 | UN (+0.8) | 30 | 4-1 | 3 | |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
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| Trends Favoring Toronto | |
|---|---|
 | Bet on Toronto on the money line when they allow 2 or less goals. Toronto record during the 2025 season: 35-4 (90%) with an average money line of -163. (+31.2 unit$, ROI=48.9%) The average score of these games was Maple Leafs 3.4, Opponents 1.4. |
| Bet on Toronto on the money line when they allow 2 goals. Toronto record since the 2024 season: 31-5 (86%) with an average money line of -158. (+26.1 unit$, ROI=45.8%) The average score of these games was Maple Leafs 3.8, Opponents 2.0. |
| Bet against Ottawa on the money line when they score 2 or less goals. Ottawa record during the 2025 season: 6-31 (16%) with an average money line of -106. (-31.2 unit$, ROI=-79.1%) The average score of these games was Senators 1.4, Opponents 3.4. |
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| Trends Favoring Under | |
|---|---|
 | Bet under the total in Toronto games when they allow 2 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 32-7 (82%) with an average over/under of 6.0, money line=-112. (+24.5 unit$, ROI=55.9%) The average score of these games was Maple Leafs 3.4, Opponents 1.4. |
| Bet under the total in Ottawa games when they score 2 or less goals. The Under's record since the 2024 season: 48-15 (76%) with an average over/under of 6.1, money line=-107. (+32.5 unit$, ROI=44.1%) The average score of these games was Senators 1.4, Opponents 3.5. |
Teams: The competing teams in the matchup.
Goalies: The starting goaltenders for each team.
Betting Lines
ML (Money Line): The odds for each team to win the game outright.
B.E. (Break-Even %): The implied probability of winning based on the money line.
Estimated ML: The projected money line based on power ratings and goaltender performance.
Win%: The projected win probability for each team based on simulations.
Edge%: The difference between the estimated and actual betting line, indicating potential value.
Game Simulation
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on simulations.
Over/Under (O/U): The projected total goals scored in the game.
Est. O/U: The estimated over/under based on simulations.
O/U Edge: The difference between the estimated and actual over/under total.
Projected Game Stats
SOG (Shots on Goal): The projected total number of shots on goal for each team.
PP (Power Play Goals): The projected number of power play goals scored by each team.
AST (Assists): The projected total assists for each team.
Trends & Insights
Trends Favoring Team: Historical betting trends that support one team based on past performance in similar matchups.
Trends Favoring Over/Under: Historical trends indicating whether games involving these teams tend to go over or under the total.