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| Monday, 07/07/2025 10:00 PM (ET) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gm# | Record | Open | Latest | ML | 1H | |
 DAL | 623 | 6-13 | 164 | 164 | +200 | 83 |
 PHO | 624 | 12-6 | -6 | -6 | -250 | -3 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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Tip SheetSimulation & Ratings🔒Betting Systems🔒Team Trends🔒Team StatsSchedule & ResultsHead-to-Head🔒Coaches🔒
WNBA Simulation & Power Ratings |
This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.
Power Rating Projections |
Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.
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| Power Rating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Rating | Estimate | Actual | Edge |
| DAL | 78 | DAL (+1) | ||
| PHO | 81 | -5 | -6 | |
Game Simulation Results |
This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores, Edges | Shooting | 3pt Shooting | Free Throws | Rebounding | |||||||||||
| Teams | Score | Edge | H1Score | Edge | 3FGM-A | Pct. | 3FGM-A | Pct. | FTM-A | Pct. | Tot. | OFF | TO | ||
| DAL | 81 | Ov (+6.4) | 41 | Ov (+2.5) | 30-69 | 42.6% | 6-19 | 31.8% | 16-19 | 81.5% | 45 | 10 | 14 | ||
| PHO | 89 | PHO (+3) | 45 | PHO (+1) | 31-69 | 45.5% | 11-29 | 36.5% | 16-21 | 78.6% | 42 | 8 | 12 | ||
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| The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total. | |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Phoenix covered the spread 557 times, while Dallas covered the spread 414 times. Edge against the spread=Phoenix. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 635 games went over the total, while 338 games went under the total. Edge against the total=Over. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Phoenix won the game straight up 692 times, while Dallas won 280 times. No Edge. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Phoenix covered the first half line 514 times, while Dallas covered the first half line 451 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 578 games went over the first half total, while 386 games went under the first half total. Edge against the first half total=Over. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Phoenix covered the 4 point teaser line 649 times, and failed to cover 330 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, Dallas covered the 4 point teaser line 536 times, and failed to cover 436 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 735 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 244 failed to go over. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 440 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 532 failed to go under. No Edge. |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
| Trends Favoring Phoenix. | |
|---|---|
| Bet against Dallas when they allow 88 or more points in a game. Dallas record since the 2024 season: 8-27 (23%) ATS with an average line of +4.8. (-21.7 unit$, ROI=-56.4%). The average score of these games was Wings 87.1, Opponents 96.5. |
| Bet on Phoenix on the money line when they allow 76 to 81 points in a game. Phoenix record since the 2024 season: 11-2 (85%) with an average money line of -138. (+14.6 unit$, ROI=81.3%) The average score of these games was Mercury 82.6, Opponents 79.4. |
| Bet against Dallas in home games on the money line when they grab 8 to 12 offensive rebounds in a game. Dallas record since the 2024 season: 1-17 (6%) with an average money line of +268. (-17.3 unit$, ROI=-95.8%) The average score of these games was Wings 82.1, Opponents 91.8. |
| Bet against Dallas in home games on the money line when they allow 88 or more points in a game. Dallas record since the 2024 season: 1-15 (6%) with an average money line of +222. (-15.6 unit$, ROI=-97.5%) The average score of these games was Wings 84.6, Opponents 96.3. |
| Bet against Dallas on the money line when they make 40% to 44% of their shots in a game. Dallas record since the 2024 season: 2-15 (12%) with an average money line of +171. (-17.1 unit$, ROI=-100.6%) The average score of these games was Wings 80.8, Opponents 90.1. |
| Bet against Dallas in home games on the money line when their opponents make 45% to 48% of their shots in a game. Dallas record since the 2024 season: 1-11 (8%) with an average money line of +263. (-11.5 unit$, ROI=-95.8%) The average score of these games was Wings 81.2, Opponents 89.4. |
| Bet against Dallas in home games on the money line in up-tempo games where they attempt 69 or more shots. Dallas record since the 2024 season: 2-15 (12%) with an average money line of +239. (-14.5 unit$, ROI=-85.3%) The average score of these games was Wings 84.1, Opponents 91.3. |
| Bet against Dallas in home games on the money line when they attempt 17 to 22 free throws in a game. Dallas record since the 2024 season: 1-9 (10%) with an average money line of +199. (-9.1 unit$, ROI=-91.0%) The average score of these games was Wings 83.0, Opponents 92.5. |
| Bet against Dallas in home games on the money line in games where they commit 13 to 18 turnovers. Dallas record since the 2024 season: 2-20 (9%) with an average money line of +241. (-20.0 unit$, ROI=-90.7%) The average score of these games was Wings 82.5, Opponents 91.6. |
| Trends Favoring Over. | |
|---|---|
| Bet over the total in Dallas games when they allow 88 to 92 points in a game. The Over's record since the 2024 season: 10-1 (91%) with an average over/under of 167.8. (+8.9 unit$, ROI=73.6%) The average score of these games was Wings 88.5, Opponents 90.4. |
| Bet over the total in Dallas games when they allow 88 or more points in a game. The Over's record during the 2025 season: 8-1 (89%) with an average over/under of 167.6. (+6.9 unit$, ROI=69.7%) The average score of these games was Wings 86.0, Opponents 93.1. |
| Bet over the total in Phoenix games when they score 88 or more points in a game. The Over's record during the 2025 season: 7-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 163.3. (+7.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%) The average score of these games was Mercury 95.3, Opponents 87.3. |
| Bet over the total in Phoenix games when they score 88 to 92 points in a game. The Over's record since the 2024 season: 8-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 166.2. (+8.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%) The average score of these games was Mercury 89.5, Opponents 91.8. |
| Bet over the 1st half total in Phoenix games when they score 88 or more points in a game. The 1st half Over's record since the 2024 season: 17-4 (81%) with an average 1st half over/under of 84.0. (+12.6 unit$, ROI=54.5%) The average score of these games was Mercury 45.7, Opponents 46.4. |
Glossary of Terms
Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.
Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.
Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.
Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.
H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.
3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.
FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.
Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.
OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.
TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.