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| Wednesday, 07/09/2025 3:30 PM (ET) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gm# | Record | Open | Latest | ML | 1H | |
 MIN | 605 | 17-3 | ||||
 PHO | 606 | 13-6 | NL | NL | NL | |
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Tip SheetSimulation & Ratings🔒Betting Systems🔒Team Trends🔒Team StatsSchedule & ResultsHead-to-Head🔒Coaches🔒
WNBA Simulation & Power Ratings |
This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.
Power Rating Projections |
Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.
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| Power Rating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Rating | Estimate | Actual | Edge |
| MIN | 87 | -2 | ||
| PHO | 83 | |||
Game Simulation Results |
This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores, Edges | Shooting | 3pt Shooting | Free Throws | Rebounding | |||||||||||
| Teams | Score | Edge | H1Score | Edge | 3FGM-A | Pct. | 3FGM-A | Pct. | FTM-A | Pct. | Tot. | OFF | TO | ||
| MIN | 80 | 40 | 30-66 | 45.1% | 8-24 | 34.8% | 12-15 | 80.2% | 43 | 7 | 14 | ||||
| PHO | 81 | 41 | 29-69 | 42.4% | 10-30 | 33.0% | 13-16 | 77.3% | 43 | 9 | 12 | ||||
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| The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total. | |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Phoenix covered the spread 0 times, while Minnesota covered the spread 0 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 0 games went over the total, while 0 games went under the total. No Edge. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Phoenix won the game straight up 522 times, while Minnesota won 444 times. No Edge. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Phoenix covered the first half line 0 times, while Minnesota covered the first half line 0 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 0 games went over the first half total, while 0 games went under the first half total. No Edge. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Phoenix covered the 4 point teaser line 0 times, and failed to cover 0 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, Minnesota covered the 4 point teaser line 0 times, and failed to cover 0 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 0 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 0 failed to go over. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 0 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 0 failed to go under. No Edge. |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
| Trends Favoring Minnesota. | |
|---|---|
| Bet on Minnesota in away games on the money line when their opponents make 29% to 35% of their 3 pointers in a game. Minnesota record since the 2023 season: 13-2 (87%) with an average money line of -140. (+18.0 unit$, ROI=85.9%) The average score of these games was Lynx 80.8, Opponents 77.9. |
| Bet on Minnesota on the money line when they make 45% to 48% of their shots in a game. Minnesota record since the 2023 season: 25-6 (81%) with an average money line of -245. (+21.3 unit$, ROI=28.0%) The average score of these games was Lynx 85.3, Opponents 79.4. |
| Bet against Phoenix on the money line when their opponents make 45% to 48% of their shots in a game. Phoenix record since the 2023 season: 4-17 (19%) with an average money line of -111. (-20.8 unit$, ROI=-89.3%) The average score of these games was Mercury 79.2, Opponents 88.5. |
| Trends Favoring Phoenix. | |
|---|---|
| Bet on Phoenix on the money line when they allow 76 to 81 points in a game. Phoenix record since the 2024 season: 11-2 (85%) with an average money line of -138. (+14.6 unit$, ROI=81.3%) The average score of these games was Mercury 82.6, Opponents 79.4. |
| Bet against Minnesota on the 1st half line when they have the around same number of rebounds as their opponents in a game. Minnesota record on the 1st half line during the 2025 season: 0-6 (0%) with an average 1st half line of -3.5. (-6.6 unit$, ROI=-100.0%) The average 1st half score of these games was Lynx 43.2, Opponents 42.8. |
| Trends Favoring Over. | |
|---|---|
| Bet over the total in Phoenix games when their opponents make 29% to 35% of their 3 pointers in a game. The Over's record during the 2025 season: 8-1 (89%) with an average over/under of 161.4. (+6.9 unit$, ROI=69.7%) The average score of these games was Mercury 92.4, Opponents 80.8. |
| Bet over the 1st half total in Minnesota away games when they make 45% to 48% of their shots in a game. The 1st half Over's record since the 2024 season: 11-0 (100%) with an average 1st half over/under of 81.5. (+11.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%) The average score of these games was Lynx 46.2, Opponents 45.2. |
| Trends Favoring Under. | |
|---|---|
| Bet under the total in Minnesota games when they score 76 to 81 points in a game. The Under's record since the 2024 season: 13-1 (93%) with an average over/under of 159.6. (+11.9 unit$, ROI=77.3%) The average score of these games was Lynx 78.1, Opponents 73.3. |
Glossary of Terms
Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.
Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.
Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.
Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.
H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.
3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.
FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.
Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.
OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.
TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.