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| Wednesday, 07/16/2025 1:00 PM (ET) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gm# | Record | Open | Latest | ML | 1H | |
 PHO | 607 | 15-6 | 161.5 | 161.5 | +325 | 82 |
 MIN | 608 | 19-5 | -6.5 | -9 | -450 | -5 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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Tip SheetSimulation & Ratings🔒Betting Systems🔒Team Trends🔒Team StatsSchedule & ResultsHead-to-Head🔒Coaches🔒
WNBA Simulation & Power Ratings |
This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.
Power Rating Projections |
Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.
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| Power Rating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Rating | Estimate | Actual | Edge |
| PHO | 84 | PHO (+5) | ||
| MIN | 86 | -4 | -9 | |
Game Simulation Results |
This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores, Edges | Shooting | 3pt Shooting | Free Throws | Rebounding | |||||||||||
| Teams | Score | Edge | H1Score | Edge | 3FGM-A | Pct. | 3FGM-A | Pct. | FTM-A | Pct. | Tot. | OFF | TO | ||
| PHO | 78 | PHO (+6) | 39 | PHO (+3) | 29-69 | 41.9% | 9-29 | 32.1% | 11-14 | 77.2% | 42 | 9 | 14 | ||
| MIN | 82 | Un (+1.5) | 41 | Un (+1.4) | 30-67 | 45.0% | 9-26 | 33.4% | 13-16 | 80.9% | 44 | 8 | 14 | ||
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| The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total. | |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Phoenix covered the spread 615 times, while Minnesota covered the spread 361 times. Edge against the spread=Phoenix. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 549 games went under the total, while 451 games went over the total. No Edge. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Minnesota won the game straight up 599 times, while Phoenix won 366 times. Edge on the money line=Phoenix. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Phoenix covered the first half line 599 times, while Minnesota covered the first half line 371 times. Edge against the first half line=Phoenix. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 526 games went under the first half total, while 437 games went over the first half total. No Edge. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Minnesota covered the 4 point teaser line 460 times, and failed to cover 512 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, Phoenix covered the 4 point teaser line 715 times, and failed to cover 258 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 573 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 427 failed to go over. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 664 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 336 failed to go under. No Edge. |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
| Trends Favoring Phoenix. | |
|---|---|
| Bet against Minnesota on the 1st half line when they have the around same number of rebounds as their opponents in a game. Minnesota record on the 1st half line during the 2025 season: 1-8 (11%) with an average 1st half line of -4.0. (-7.8 unit$, ROI=-78.8%) The average 1st half score of these games was Lynx 43.3, Opponents 42.6. |
| Trends Favoring Minnesota. | |
|---|---|
| Bet on Minnesota on the money line when they score 82 to 87 points in a game. Minnesota record since the 2024 season: 15-3 (83%) with an average money line of -275. (+14.5 unit$, ROI=29.3%) The average score of these games was Lynx 83.8, Opponents 74.7. |
| Bet on Minnesota on the money line when they make 45% to 48% of their shots in a game. Minnesota record since the 2024 season: 21-4 (84%) with an average money line of -331. (+15.8 unit$, ROI=19.1%) The average score of these games was Lynx 85.0, Opponents 77.9. |
| Bet against Phoenix on the money line when their opponents make 45% to 48% of their shots in a game. Phoenix record since the 2023 season: 4-17 (19%) with an average money line of -111. (-20.8 unit$, ROI=-89.3%) The average score of these games was Mercury 79.2, Opponents 88.5. |
| Bet against Phoenix in home games on the money line in games where they force 13 to 18 turnovers. Phoenix record since the 2023 season: 2-12 (14%) with an average money line of +135. (-16.2 unit$, ROI=-115.7%) The average score of these games was Mercury 75.3, Opponents 83.9. |
| Trends Favoring Over. | |
|---|---|
| Bet over the total in Phoenix games when their opponents make 29% to 35% of their 3 pointers in a game. The Over's record during the 2025 season: 8-1 (89%) with an average over/under of 161.4. (+6.9 unit$, ROI=69.7%) The average score of these games was Mercury 92.4, Opponents 80.8. |
| Bet over the 1st half total in Minnesota games when they make 45% to 48% of their shots in a game. The 1st half Over's record since the 2023 season: 28-6 (82%) with an average 1st half over/under of 81.0. (+21.4 unit$, ROI=57.2%) The average score of these games was Lynx 44.6, Opponents 41.3. |
| Trends Favoring Under. | |
|---|---|
| Bet under the total in Minnesota away games in games where they commit 13 to 18 turnovers. The Under's record since the 2024 season: 13-2 (87%) with an average over/under of 159.7. (+10.8 unit$, ROI=65.5%) The average score of these games was Lynx 75.8, Opponents 71.1. |
| Bet under the 1st half total in Minnesota away games in games where they force 13 to 18 turnovers. The 1st half Under's record during the 2025 season: 6-0 (100%) with an average 1st half over/under of 80.5. (+6.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%) The average score of these games was Lynx 36.3, Opponents 33.0. |
Glossary of Terms
Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.
Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.
Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.
Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.
H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.
3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.
FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.
Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.
OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.
TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.