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| Friday, 04/18/2025 7:00 PM (ET) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Conference - Play-In Game | ||||||
| Gm# | Record | Open | Latest | ML | 1H | |
 MIA | 589 | 39-45 | 217.5 | -1.5 | -120 | -1 |
 ATL | 590 | 40-44 | -1.5 | 221 | +100 | 111.5 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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NBA Simulation & Power Ratings |
Power Rating Projections |
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| Power Rating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Rating | Estimate | Actual | Edge |
| MIA | 118 | -4 | -1.5 | MIA (+2.5) |
| ATL | 112 | |||
Game Simulation Results |
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores, Edges | Shooting | 3pt Shooting | Free Throws | Rebounding | |||||||||||
| Teams | Score | Edge | H1Score | Edge | 3FGM-A | Pct. | 3FGM-A | Pct. | FTM-A | Pct. | Tot. | OFF | TO | ||
| MIA | 117 | Ov (+13.7) | 59 | Ov (+6.3) | 44-89 | 49.4% | 14-35 | 39.3% | 15-19 | 79.9% | 50 | 11 | 14 | ||
| ATL | 118 | ATL (+1.5) | 59 | ATL (+2) | 45-90 | 49.4% | 14-37 | 37.3% | 15-19 | 77.6% | 51 | 12 | 14 | ||
Simulation Line Covers |
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| The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total. | |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Atlanta covered the spread 553 times, while Miami covered the spread 447 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 767 games went over the total, while 213 games went under the total. Edge against the total=Over. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Atlanta won the game straight up 501 times, while Miami won 467 times. No Edge. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Atlanta covered the first half line 516 times, while Miami covered the first half line 455 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 693 games went over the first half total, while 307 games went under the first half total. Edge against the first half total=Over. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Atlanta covered the 4 point teaser line 632 times, and failed to cover 368 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, Miami covered the 4 point teaser line 544 times, and failed to cover 456 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 836 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 150 failed to go over. Edge against the 4 point teaser total=Over. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 274 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 705 failed to go under. No Edge. |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
| Trends Favoring Miami. | |
|---|---|
| Bet on Miami on the 1st half line when they attempt 16 to 20 free throws in a game. Miami record on the 1st half line since the 2024 season: 35-11 (76%) with an average 1st half line of 0.0. (+22.9 unit$, ROI=43.4%) The average 1st half score of these games was Heat 57.2, Opponents 51.4. |
| Trends Favoring Atlanta. | |
|---|---|
| Bet against Miami on the money line when they allow 115 to 120 points in a game. Miami record during the 2025 season: 3-16 (16%) with an average money line of -118. (-21.8 unit$, ROI=-96.9%) The average score of these games was Heat 111.0, Opponents 117.7. |
| Bet against Miami on the money line when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game. Miami record since the 2024 season: 10-31 (24%) with an average money line of -125. (-37.2 unit$, ROI=-72.4%) The average score of these games was Heat 109.0, Opponents 113.4. |
| Trends Favoring Over. | |
|---|---|
| Bet over the total in Miami games when they allow 115 to 120 points in a game. The Over's record during the 2025 season: 19-1 (95%) with an average over/under of 218.3. (+17.9 unit$, ROI=81.4%) The average score of these games was Heat 111.0, Opponents 117.7. |
| Bet over the 1st half total in Atlanta games when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game. The 1st half Over's record during the 2025 season: 19-3 (86%) with an average 1st half over/under of 118.0. (+15.7 unit$, ROI=62.1%) The average score of these games was Hawks 60.8, Opponents 64.1. |
| Bet over the 1st half total in Atlanta games when they make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game. The 1st half Over's record during the 2025 season: 19-4 (83%) with an average 1st half over/under of 118.0. (+14.6 unit$, ROI=57.7%) The average score of these games was Hawks 60.5, Opponents 63.1. |
Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.
Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.
Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.
Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.
H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.
3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.
FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.
Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.
OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.
TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.