StatSharp Logo

More NBA Games

Left ArrowBy TimeRight ArrowCurrent Games By Game#Right Arrow

Swipe left to see more →

Sunday, 04/20/2025 7:00 PM (ET) 
Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1
 Gm#RecordOpenLatestML1H
 MIA
 Miami (8)
50939-45215.5215.5+600108.5
 CLE
 Cleveland (1)
51064-18-13-12.5-950-7.5

Matchup Content Menu

Swipe left to see more →

Tip SheetSimulation & Ratings🔒Betting Systems🔒Team Trends🔒Team StatsPlayers Stats & InjuriesSchedule & ResultsHead-to-Head🔒Coaches🔒

NBA Simulation & Power Ratings

This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.

Power Rating Projections

Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.

Swipe left to see more →

 Power Rating
TeamsRatingEstimateActualEdge
 MIA Miami118 MIA (+9.5)
 CLE Cleveland119-3-12.5

Game Simulation Results

This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.

Swipe left to see more →

Average projected scores and game statistics.
 Scores, EdgesShooting   3pt ShootingFree ThrowsRebounding 
TeamsScoreEdgeH1ScoreEdge3FGM-APct.3FGM-APct.FTM-APct.Tot.OFFTO
 MIA Miami107MIA (+3.5)Ov (+6.4)54MIA (+3.5)Ov (+3.2)40-9045.2%13-3635.5%13-1777.6%511213
 CLE Cleveland115 58 43-9047.9%15-4136.5%14-1976.4%551213

Simulation Line Covers

Swipe left to see more →

The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
In 1000 simulated games, Miami covered the spread 575 times, while Cleveland covered the spread 425 times.
Edge against the spread=Miami.
In 1000 simulated games, 639 games went over the total, while 361 games went under the total.
Edge against the total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, Cleveland won the game straight up 692 times, while Miami won 294 times.
Edge on the money line=Miami.
In 1000 simulated games, Miami covered the first half line 619 times, while Cleveland covered the first half line 381 times.
Edge against the first half line=Miami.
In 1000 simulated games, 596 games went over the first half total, while 404 games went under the first half total.
Edge against the first half total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, Cleveland covered the 4 point teaser line 520 times, and failed to cover 480 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, Miami covered the 4 point teaser line 665 times, and failed to cover 335 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 736 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 264 failed to go over.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 441 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 559 failed to go under.
No Edge.

Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection

Trends Favoring Miami.
Bet on Miami on the 1st half line when they attempt 16 to 20 free throws in a game.
Miami record on the 1st half line since the 2024 season: 36-11 (77%) with an average 1st half line of 0.0. (+23.9 unit$, ROI=44.3%)
The average 1st half score of these games was Heat 57.3, Opponents 51.4.
Trends Favoring Cleveland.
Bet on Cleveland on the money line when their opponents make 32% to 38% of their 3 pointers in a game.
Cleveland record during the 2025 season: 18-3 (86%) with an average money line of -403. (+15.2 unit$, ROI=18.0%)
The average score of these games was Cavaliers 121.1, Opponents 110.8.
Bet on Cleveland on the money line when their opponents make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game.
Cleveland record since the 2024 season: 35-9 (80%) with an average money line of -344. (+24.6 unit$, ROI=16.2%)
The average score of these games was Cavaliers 115.8, Opponents 106.9.
Bet against Miami on the money line when they allow 115 to 120 points in a game.
Miami record during the 2025 season: 3-16 (16%) with an average money line of -118. (-21.8 unit$, ROI=-96.9%)
The average score of these games was Heat 111.0, Opponents 117.7.
Bet against Miami on the money line when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game.
Miami record since the 2024 season: 10-31 (24%) with an average money line of -125. (-37.2 unit$, ROI=-72.4%)
The average score of these games was Heat 109.0, Opponents 113.4.
Bet on Cleveland in home games on the 1st half line when they make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game.
Cleveland record on the 1st half line during the 2025 season: 12-0 (100%) with an average 1st half line of -5.5. (+12.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%)
The average 1st half score of these games was Cavaliers 64.8, Opponents 51.8.
Trends Favoring Over.
Bet over the total in Miami games when they allow 115 to 120 points in a game.
The Over's record during the 2025 season: 19-1 (95%) with an average over/under of 218.3. (+17.9 unit$, ROI=81.4%)
The average score of these games was Heat 111.0, Opponents 117.7.
Glossary of Terms

Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.

Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.

Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.

Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.

Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.

H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.

3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.

FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.

Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.

OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.

TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.