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| Saturday, 04/26/2025 3:30 PM (ET) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 4 - Oklahoma City leads series 2 games to 0. | ||||||
| Gm# | Record | Open | Latest | ML | 1H | |
 OKC | 563 | 70-15 | ||||
 MEM | 564 | 49-37 | NL | NL | NL | |
Matchup Content Menu |
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Tip SheetSimulation & Ratings🔒Betting Systems🔒Team Trends🔒Team StatsPlayers Stats & InjuriesSchedule & ResultsHead-to-Head🔒Coaches🔒
NBA Simulation & Power Ratings |
This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.
Power Rating Projections |
Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.
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| Power Rating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Rating | Estimate | Actual | Edge |
| OKC | 128 | -12 | ||
| MEM | 114 | |||
Game Simulation Results |
This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores, Edges | Shooting | 3pt Shooting | Free Throws | Rebounding | |||||||||||
| Teams | Score | Edge | H1Score | Edge | 3FGM-A | Pct. | 3FGM-A | Pct. | FTM-A | Pct. | Tot. | OFF | TO | ||
| OKC | 124 | 62 | 45-94 | 48.4% | 16-40 | 39.9% | 17-21 | 81.0% | 54 | 11 | 11 | ||||
| MEM | 113 | 57 | 42-93 | 45.2% | 13-37 | 35.7% | 16-19 | 83.2% | 55 | 13 | 14 | ||||
Simulation Line Covers |
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| The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total. | |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Memphis covered the spread 0 times, while Oklahoma City covered the spread 0 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 0 games went over the total, while 0 games went under the total. No Edge. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Oklahoma City won the game straight up 720 times, while Memphis won 265 times. No Edge. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Memphis covered the first half line 0 times, while Oklahoma City covered the first half line 0 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 0 games went over the first half total, while 0 games went under the first half total. No Edge. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Memphis covered the 4 point teaser line 0 times, and failed to cover 0 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, Oklahoma City covered the 4 point teaser line 0 times, and failed to cover 0 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 0 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 0 failed to go over. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 0 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 0 failed to go under. No Edge. |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
| Trends Favoring Oklahoma City. | |
|---|---|
| Bet on Oklahoma City when they score 121 or more points in a game. Oklahoma City record during the 2025 season: 31-10 (76%) ATS with an average line of -10.6. (+20.0 unit$, ROI=43.3%). The average score of these games was Thunder 130.9, Opponents 111.0. |
| Bet on Oklahoma City in up-tempo games where they attempt 93 or more shots. Oklahoma City record during the 2025 season: 29-9 (76%) ATS with an average line of -10.2. (+19.1 unit$, ROI=44.5%). The average score of these games was Thunder 126.9, Opponents 109.5. |
| Bet against Memphis when they allow 121 or more points in a game. Memphis record since the 2024 season: 13-40 (25%) ATS with an average line of +3.5. (-31.0 unit$, ROI=-52.2%). The average score of these games was Grizzlies 116.3, Opponents 128.4. |
| Bet on Oklahoma City on the money line when they score 121 or more points in a game. Oklahoma City record since the 2023 season: 80-16 (83%) with an average money line of -276. (+63.3 unit$, ROI=23.9%) The average score of these games was Thunder 130.1, Opponents 114.3. |
| Bet against Memphis on the money line when they allow 121 or more points in a game. Memphis record since the 2024 season: 9-39 (19%) with an average money line of +128. (-36.8 unit$, ROI=-76.7%) The average score of these games was Grizzlies 116.3, Opponents 128.4. |
| Bet against Memphis on the money line when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game. Memphis record during the 2025 season: 6-17 (26%) with an average money line of -116. (-20.5 unit$, ROI=-76.8%) The average score of these games was Grizzlies 117.8, Opponents 123.0. |
| Bet against Memphis on the 1st half line when they allow 121 or more points in a game. Memphis record on the 1st half line since the 2024 season: 12-40 (23%) with an average 1st half line of +2.0. (-32.0 unit$, ROI=-53.9%) The average 1st half score of these games was Grizzlies 57.2, Opponents 65.6. |
| Trends Favoring Over. | |
|---|---|
| Bet over the total in Oklahoma City games when they score 121 or more points in a game. The Over's record during the 2025 season: 33-9 (79%) with an average over/under of 230.4. (+23.1 unit$, ROI=50.0%) The average score of these games was Thunder 130.9, Opponents 111.0. |
| Bet over the total in Oklahoma City games when they allow 109 to 114 points in a game. The Over's record during the 2025 season: 13-2 (87%) with an average over/under of 230.0. (+10.8 unit$, ROI=65.5%) The average score of these games was Thunder 127.8, Opponents 111.3. |
| Bet over the total in Memphis games when they allow 121 or more points in a game. The Over's record during the 2025 season: 29-5 (85%) with an average over/under of 237.7. (+23.5 unit$, ROI=62.8%) The average score of these games was Grizzlies 121.8, Opponents 128.7. |
| Bet over the 1st half total in Memphis away or neutral games when they allow 121 or more points in a game. The 1st half Over's record during the 2025 season: 11-1 (92%) with an average 1st half over/under of 120.5. (+9.9 unit$, ROI=69.2%) The average score of these games was Grizzlies 62.8, Opponents 69.0. |
Glossary of Terms
Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.
Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.
Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.
Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.
H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.
3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.
FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.
Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.
OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.
TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.