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| Saturday, 04/26/2025 1:00 PM (ET) | ||||||
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| Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 3 - Cleveland leads series 2 games to 0. | ||||||
| Gm# | Record | Open | Latest | ML | 1H | |
 CLE | 561 | 66-18 | -6.5 | -6 | -250 | -3 |
 MIA | 562 | 39-47 | 215 | 215 | +200 | 108.5 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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NBA Simulation & Power Ratings |
Power Rating Projections |
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| Power Rating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Rating | Estimate | Actual | Edge |
| CLE | 121 | -3 | -6 | |
| MIA | 116 | MIA (+3) | ||
Game Simulation Results |
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores, Edges | Shooting | 3pt Shooting | Free Throws | Rebounding | |||||||||||
| Teams | Score | Edge | H1Score | Edge | 3FGM-A | Pct. | 3FGM-A | Pct. | FTM-A | Pct. | Tot. | OFF | TO | ||
| CLE | 116 | Ov (+15.9) | 59 | Ov (+8) | 43-90 | 48.1% | 16-41 | 38.1% | 14-19 | 76.0% | 51 | 13 | 13 | ||
| MIA | 115 | MIA (+4) | 58 | MIA (+2) | 44-90 | 48.8% | 14-36 | 39.2% | 13-17 | 77.9% | 51 | 12 | 13 | ||
Simulation Line Covers |
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| The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total. | |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Miami covered the spread 594 times, while Cleveland covered the spread 384 times. Edge against the spread=Miami. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 816 games went over the total, while 169 games went under the total. Edge against the total=Over. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Cleveland won the game straight up 526 times, while Miami won 448 times. Edge on the money line=Miami. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Miami covered the first half line 552 times, while Cleveland covered the first half line 416 times. Edge against the first half line=Miami. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 746 games went over the first half total, while 254 games went under the first half total. Edge against the first half total=Over. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Miami covered the 4 point teaser line 686 times, and failed to cover 294 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, Cleveland covered the 4 point teaser line 474 times, and failed to cover 516 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 873 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 114 failed to go over. Edge against the 4 point teaser total=Over. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 236 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 744 failed to go under. No Edge. |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
| Trends Favoring Cleveland. | |
|---|---|
| Bet against Miami on the money line when they allow 115 to 120 points in a game. Miami record during the 2025 season: 3-16 (16%) with an average money line of -118. (-21.8 unit$, ROI=-96.9%) The average score of these games was Heat 111.0, Opponents 117.7. |
| Bet against Miami on the money line when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game. Miami record during the 2025 season: 5-17 (23%) with an average money line of +115. (-19.6 unit$, ROI=-88.9%) The average score of these games was Heat 112.0, Opponents 114.7. |
| Trends Favoring Over. | |
|---|---|
| Bet over the total in Cleveland games when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game. The Over's record during the 2025 season: 20-4 (83%) with an average over/under of 231.3. (+15.6 unit$, ROI=59.1%) The average score of these games was Cavaliers 124.6, Opponents 118.7. |
| Bet over the total in Miami games when they allow 115 to 120 points in a game. The Over's record during the 2025 season: 19-1 (95%) with an average over/under of 218.3. (+17.9 unit$, ROI=81.4%) The average score of these games was Heat 111.0, Opponents 117.7. |
Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.
Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.
Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.
Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.
H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.
3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.
FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.
Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.
OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.
TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.