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Sunday, 04/27/2025 3:30 PM (ET) 
Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 4 - Minnesota leads series 2 games to 1.
 Gm#RecordOpenLatestML1H
 LAL
 LA Lakers (3)
57151-34209.5209.5+145105.5
 MIN
 Minnesota (6)
57251-34-3.5-3.5-165-2

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NBA Simulation & Power Ratings

This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.

Power Rating Projections

Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.

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 Power Rating
TeamsRatingEstimateActualEdge
 LAL LA Lakers116 
 MIN Minnesota121-7-3.5MIN (+3.5)

Game Simulation Results

This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.

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Average projected scores and game statistics.
 Scores, EdgesShooting   3pt ShootingFree ThrowsRebounding 
TeamsScoreEdgeH1ScoreEdge3FGM-APct.3FGM-APct.FTM-APct.Tot.OFFTO
 LAL LA Lakers110Ov (+18.7)55Ov (+8.6)39-8546.0%15-4037.3%17-2278.0%501214
 MIN Minnesota118MIN (+3.5) 59MIN (+1) 43-8948.1%15-4037.8%17-2278.9%521312

Simulation Line Covers

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The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
In 1000 simulated games, Minnesota covered the spread 615 times, while LA Lakers covered the spread 385 times.
Edge against the spread=Minnesota.
In 1000 simulated games, 865 games went over the total, while 135 games went under the total.
Edge against the total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, Minnesota won the game straight up 690 times, while LA Lakers won 295 times.
Edge on the money line=Minnesota.
In 1000 simulated games, Minnesota covered the first half line 560 times, while LA Lakers covered the first half line 417 times.
Edge against the first half line=Minnesota.
In 1000 simulated games, 759 games went over the first half total, while 241 games went under the first half total.
Edge against the first half total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, Minnesota covered the 4 point teaser line 705 times, and failed to cover 295 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, LA Lakers covered the 4 point teaser line 494 times, and failed to cover 506 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 912 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 88 failed to go over.
Edge against the 4 point teaser total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, 194 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 806 failed to go under.
No Edge.

Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection

Trends Favoring LA Lakers.
Bet against Minnesota in away or neutral games when their opponents make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game.
Minnesota record during the 2025 season: 2-13 (13%) ATS with an average line of -8.1. (-12.3 unit$, ROI=-74.5%).
The average score of these games was Timberwolves 111.9, Opponents 108.2.
Trends Favoring Minnesota.
Bet against LA Lakers in home games on the money line when they make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game.
LA Lakers record since the 2024 season: 4-18 (18%) with an average money line of -139. (-26.0 unit$, ROI=-84.8%)
The average score of these games was Lakers 108.0, Opponents 120.4.
Trends Favoring Over.
Bet over the 1st half total in LA Lakers away or neutral games when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game.
The 1st half Over's record since the 2024 season: 20-4 (83%) with an average 1st half over/under of 115.5. (+15.6 unit$, ROI=56.7%)
The average score of these games was Lakers 62.2, Opponents 61.2.
Bet over the 1st half total in LA Lakers away or neutral games in games where they force 12 or fewer turnovers.
The 1st half Over's record since the 2024 season: 35-10 (78%) with an average 1st half over/under of 115.5. (+24.0 unit$, ROI=46.4%)
The average score of these games was Lakers 59.6, Opponents 61.2.
Glossary of Terms

Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.

Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.

Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.

Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.

Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.

H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.

3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.

FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.

Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.

OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.

TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.