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Wednesday, 04/30/2025 10:00 PM (ET) 
Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 5 - Minnesota leads series 3 games to 1.
 Gm#RecordOpenLatestML1H
 MIN
 Minnesota (6)
51352-34210210+200106
 LAL
 LA Lakers (3)
51451-35-5-6-250-3

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NBA Simulation & Power Ratings

This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.

Power Rating Projections

Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.

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 Power Rating
TeamsRatingEstimateActualEdge
 MIN Minnesota121-3 MIN (+9)
 LAL LA Lakers116-6

Game Simulation Results

This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.

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Average projected scores and game statistics.
 Scores, EdgesShooting   3pt ShootingFree ThrowsRebounding 
TeamsScoreEdgeH1ScoreEdge3FGM-APct.3FGM-APct.FTM-APct.Tot.OFFTO
 MIN Minnesota114MIN (+6)Ov (+18.2)57MIN (+3)Ov (+9.2)41-8846.9%15-4037.2%17-2178.4%511312
 LAL LA Lakers114 58 40-8547.6%16-4039.4%18-2378.3%511214

Simulation Line Covers

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The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
In 1000 simulated games, Minnesota covered the spread 624 times, while LA Lakers covered the spread 358 times.
Edge against the spread=Minnesota.
In 1000 simulated games, 838 games went over the total, while 144 games went under the total.
Edge against the total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, Minnesota won the game straight up 491 times, while LA Lakers won 485 times.
Edge on the money line=Minnesota.
In 1000 simulated games, Minnesota covered the first half line 570 times, while LA Lakers covered the first half line 402 times.
Edge against the first half line=Minnesota.
In 1000 simulated games, 766 games went over the first half total, while 208 games went under the first half total.
Edge against the first half total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, LA Lakers covered the 4 point teaser line 440 times, and failed to cover 538 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, Minnesota covered the 4 point teaser line 702 times, and failed to cover 276 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 893 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 97 failed to go over.
Edge against the 4 point teaser total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, 203 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 780 failed to go under.
No Edge.

Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection

Trends Favoring LA Lakers.
Bet on LA Lakers in home games on the 1st half line when they commit around the same number of turnovers as opponents.
LA Lakers record on the 1st half line during the 2025 season: 12-0 (100%) with an average 1st half line of -2.5. (+12.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%)
The average 1st half score of these games was Lakers 60.5, Opponents 49.3.
Trends Favoring Over.
Bet over the total in Minnesota games when their opponents make 39% to 45% of their 3 pointers in a game.
The Over's record during the 2025 season: 18-3 (86%) with an average over/under of 219.8. (+14.7 unit$, ROI=63.6%)
The average score of these games was Timberwolves 116.3, Opponents 114.9.
Bet over the total in Minnesota games when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game.
The Over's record during the 2025 season: 20-5 (80%) with an average over/under of 222.1. (+14.5 unit$, ROI=52.7%)
The average score of these games was Timberwolves 117.3, Opponents 115.2.
Trends Favoring Under.
Bet under the 1st half total in Minnesota away or neutral games when they make 32% to 38% of their three point attempts in a game.
The 1st half Under's record during the 2025 season: 14-2 (88%) with an average 1st half over/under of 111.5. (+11.8 unit$, ROI=67.0%)
The average score of these games was Timberwolves 53.1, Opponents 48.4.
Glossary of Terms

Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.

Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.

Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.

Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.

Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.

H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.

3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.

FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.

Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.

OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.

TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.