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| Tuesday, 04/15/2025 7:07 PM | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record | Starter | Open | Latest | ||||
| Gm# | W-L-OTL PTS | Goalie | ML | O/U | ML | O/U | |
 TOR | 57 | 52-26-4, 108 pts. | STOLARZ | -160 | 6.5o+10 | -145 | 6.5o+05 |
 BUF | 58 | 36-39-7, 79 pts. | LUUKKONEN | +140 | 6.5u-30 | +125 | 6.5u-25 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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NHL Simulation & Power Ratings |
Power Rating Projections |
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| Teams | Actual Line | Estimated Line | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Goalie | ML | B.E. | ML | Win% | Edge% | |
| TOR | 4.30 | STOLARZ | -145 | 59.2% | -183 | 64.7% | TOR (+5.5%) |
| BUF | 2.95 | LUUKKONEN | +125 | 44.4% | +-183 | 35.3% | |
Game Simulation Results |
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Line | Estimated Line | Over/Under | Projected Stats | ||||||||||
| Teams | Goalies | Score | ML | B.E. | ML | Win% | Edge | O/U | Est. | Edge | SOG | PP | AST |
| TOR | STOLARZ | 3.60 | -145 | 59.2% | -212 | 67.9% | TOR (+8.7%) | 6.5o+05 | 5.9 | 29 | 3-1 | 6 | |
| BUF | LUUKKONEN | 2.27 | +125 | 44.4% | +212 | 32.1% | 6.5u-25 | 5.9 | UN (+0.6) | 32 | 4-1 | 4 | |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
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| Trends Favoring Toronto | |
|---|---|
 | Bet on Toronto on the money line when they score 4 goals. Toronto record during the 2025 season: 14-1 (93%) with an average money line of -126. (+15.7 unit$, ROI=83.1%) The average score of these games was Maple Leafs 4.0, Opponents 2.4. |
| Bet on Toronto on the money line when they allow 2 or less goals. Toronto record during the 2025 season: 31-4 (89%) with an average money line of -166. (+27.1 unit$, ROI=46.5%) The average score of these games was Maple Leafs 3.3, Opponents 1.4. |
| Bet against Buffalo on the money line when they score 2 goals. Buffalo record during the 2025 season: 0-17 (0%) with an average money line of +119. (-19.2 unit$, ROI=-112.9%) The average score of these games was Sabres 2.0, Opponents 4.4. |
| Bet against Buffalo on the money line when they score 2 or less goals. Buffalo record during the 2025 season: 1-28 (3%) with an average money line of +123. (-29.2 unit$, ROI=-100.5%) The average score of these games was Sabres 1.5, Opponents 3.8. |
| Bet against Buffalo on the money line when they allow 4 goals. Buffalo record during the 2025 season: 0-9 (0%) with an average money line of +126. (-9.7 unit$, ROI=-107.8%) The average score of these games was Sabres 1.9, Opponents 4.0. |
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| Trends Favoring Under | |
|---|---|
 | Bet under the total in Toronto games when they allow 2 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 29-6 (83%) with an average over/under of 6.1, money line=-113. (+22.5 unit$, ROI=56.6%) The average score of these games was Maple Leafs 3.3, Opponents 1.4. |
Teams: The competing teams in the matchup.
Goalies: The starting goaltenders for each team.
Betting Lines
ML (Money Line): The odds for each team to win the game outright.
B.E. (Break-Even %): The implied probability of winning based on the money line.
Estimated ML: The projected money line based on power ratings and goaltender performance.
Win%: The projected win probability for each team based on simulations.
Edge%: The difference between the estimated and actual betting line, indicating potential value.
Game Simulation
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on simulations.
Over/Under (O/U): The projected total goals scored in the game.
Est. O/U: The estimated over/under based on simulations.
O/U Edge: The difference between the estimated and actual over/under total.
Projected Game Stats
SOG (Shots on Goal): The projected total number of shots on goal for each team.
PP (Power Play Goals): The projected number of power play goals scored by each team.
AST (Assists): The projected total assists for each team.
Trends & Insights
Trends Favoring Team: Historical betting trends that support one team based on past performance in similar matchups.
Trends Favoring Over/Under: Historical trends indicating whether games involving these teams tend to go over or under the total.