More NHL Games |
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| Monday, 04/28/2025 7:00 PM | |||||||
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| NHL Playoffs - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 4 - Florida leads series 2 games to 1. | |||||||
| Record | Starter | Open | Latest | ||||
| Gm# | W-L-OTL PTS | Goalie | ML | O/U | ML | O/U | |
 TBL | 17 | 48-29-8, 104 pts. | VASILEVSKIY | +110 | 5.5o-10 | +120 | 5.5o-10 |
 FLA | 18 | 49-32-4, 102 pts. | BOBROVSKY | -130 | 5.5u-10 | -140 | 5.5u-10 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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NHL Simulation & Power Ratings |
Power Rating Projections |
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| Teams | Actual Line | Estimated Line | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Goalie | ML | B.E. | ML | Win% | Edge% | |
| TBL | 3.80 | VASILEVSKIY | +120 | 45.5% | -127 | 56.0% | TBL (+10.6%) |
| FLA | 3.25 | BOBROVSKY | -140 | 58.3% | +-127 | 44.0% | |
Game Simulation Results |
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Line | Estimated Line | Over/Under | Projected Stats | ||||||||||
| Teams | Goalies | Score | ML | B.E. | ML | Win% | Edge | O/U | Est. | Edge | SOG | PP | AST |
| TBL | VASILEVSKIY | 2.12 | +120 | 45.5% | -210 | 67.7% | TBL (+22.3%) | 5.5o-10 | 3.5 | 24 | 4-1 | 4 | |
| FLA | BOBROVSKY | 1.34 | -140 | 58.3% | +210 | 32.3% | 5.5u-10 | 3.5 | UN (+2.0) | 31 | 4-1 | 2 | |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
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| Trends Favoring Tampa Bay | |
|---|---|
 | Bet on Tampa Bay on the money line when they allow 1 or less goals. Tampa Bay record during the 2025 season: 24-0 (100%) with an average money line of -170. (+24.9 unit$, ROI=60.8%) The average score of these games was Lightning 4.4, Opponents 0.7. |
| Bet on Tampa Bay on the money line when they allow 2 or less goals. Tampa Bay record during the 2025 season: 36-8 (82%) with an average money line of -155. (+25.1 unit$, ROI=36.7%) The average score of these games was Lightning 3.8, Opponents 1.3. |
| Bet against Florida on the money line when they score 1 or less goals. Florida record during the 2025 season: 1-19 (5%) with an average money line of -153. (-28.9 unit$, ROI=-94.3%) The average score of these games was Panthers 0.8, Opponents 3.3. |
| Bet against Florida on the money line when they score 2 or less goals. Florida record during the 2025 season: 7-28 (20%) with an average money line of -163. (-38.2 unit$, ROI=-66.8%) The average score of these games was Panthers 1.3, Opponents 3.1. |
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| Trends Favoring Florida | |
|---|---|
| Bet against Tampa Bay on the money line when they score 2 or less goals. Tampa Bay record during the 2025 season: 1-26 (4%) with an average money line of -156. (-39.2 unit$, ROI=-93.2%) The average score of these games was Lightning 1.4, Opponents 3.3. |
| Bet against Tampa Bay on the money line when they score 2 goals. Tampa Bay record during the 2025 season: 1-13 (7%) with an average money line of -149. (-17.3 unit$, ROI=-83.2%) The average score of these games was Lightning 2.0, Opponents 3.8. |
| Bet on Florida on the money line when they allow 2 or less goals. Florida record during the 2025 season: 35-3 (92%) with an average money line of -192. (+31.3 unit$, ROI=42.9%) The average score of these games was Panthers 3.5, Opponents 1.1. |
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| Trends Favoring Under | |
|---|---|
 | Bet under the total in Tampa Bay games when they score 2 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 23-4 (85%) with an average over/under of 6.1, money line=-112. (+19.0 unit$, ROI=63.0%) The average score of these games was Lightning 1.4, Opponents 3.3. |
| Bet under the total in Tampa Bay away or ne games when they allow 2 or less goals. The Under's record since the 2024 season: 25-6 (81%) with an average over/under of 6.2, money line=-108. (+18.8 unit$, ROI=52.7%) The average score of these games was Lightning 3.4, Opponents 1.6. |
| Bet under the total in Tampa Bay games when they allow 1 or less goals. The Under's record since the 2023 season: 46-10 (82%) with an average over/under of 6.2, money line=-109. (+35.8 unit$, ROI=55.5%) The average score of these games was Lightning 4.1, Opponents 0.7. |
| Bet under the total in Florida games when they score 1 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 17-2 (89%) with an average over/under of 5.8, money line=-113. (+15.0 unit$, ROI=66.4%) The average score of these games was Panthers 0.8, Opponents 3.3. |
| Bet under the total in Florida games when they allow 2 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 29-8 (78%) with an average over/under of 5.8, money line=-110. (+20.6 unit$, ROI=49.2%) The average score of these games was Panthers 3.5, Opponents 1.1. |
| Bet under the total in Florida games when they score 2 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 27-7 (79%) with an average over/under of 5.7, money line=-113. (+19.4 unit$, ROI=49.0%) The average score of these games was Panthers 1.3, Opponents 3.1. |
Teams: The competing teams in the matchup.
Goalies: The starting goaltenders for each team.
Betting Lines
ML (Money Line): The odds for each team to win the game outright.
B.E. (Break-Even %): The implied probability of winning based on the money line.
Estimated ML: The projected money line based on power ratings and goaltender performance.
Win%: The projected win probability for each team based on simulations.
Edge%: The difference between the estimated and actual betting line, indicating potential value.
Game Simulation
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on simulations.
Over/Under (O/U): The projected total goals scored in the game.
Est. O/U: The estimated over/under based on simulations.
O/U Edge: The difference between the estimated and actual over/under total.
Projected Game Stats
SOG (Shots on Goal): The projected total number of shots on goal for each team.
PP (Power Play Goals): The projected number of power play goals scored by each team.
AST (Assists): The projected total assists for each team.
Trends & Insights
Trends Favoring Team: Historical betting trends that support one team based on past performance in similar matchups.
Trends Favoring Over/Under: Historical trends indicating whether games involving these teams tend to go over or under the total.