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Sunday, 05/18/2025 1:00 PM (ET) 
 Gm#RecordOpenLatestML1H
 WAS
 Washington
61314-26-3-4-175-2
 CON
 Connecticut
61432-15155155+15578.5

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Tip SheetSimulation & Ratings🔒Betting Systems🔒Team Trends🔒Team StatsPlayers Stats & InjuriesSchedule & ResultsHead-to-Head🔒Coaches🔒

WNBA Simulation & Power Ratings

This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.

Power Rating Projections

Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.

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 Power Rating
TeamsRatingEstimateActualEdge
 WAS Washington80-4
 CON Connecticut86-8 CON (+12)

Game Simulation Results

This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.

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Average projected scores and game statistics.
 Scores, EdgesShooting   3pt ShootingFree ThrowsRebounding 
TeamsScoreEdgeH1ScoreEdge3FGM-APct.3FGM-APct.FTM-APct.Tot.OFFTO
 WAS Washington75Ov (+3)38Ov (+1.3)28-6543.4%9-2536.1%10-1376.2%39617
 CON Connecticut83CON (+11) 42CON (+5) 31-6745.5%6-1934.0%15-2076.1%44813

Simulation Line Covers

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The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
In 1000 simulated games, Connecticut covered the spread 778 times, while Washington covered the spread 209 times.
Edge against the spread=Connecticut.
In 1000 simulated games, 561 games went over the total, while 406 games went under the total.
Edge against the total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, Connecticut won the game straight up 693 times, while Washington won 298 times.
Edge on the money line=Connecticut.
In 1000 simulated games, Connecticut covered the first half line 706 times, while Washington covered the first half line 260 times.
Edge against the first half line=Connecticut.
In 1000 simulated games, 565 games went over the first half total, while 435 games went under the first half total.
Edge against the first half total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, Connecticut covered the 4 point teaser line 840 times, and failed to cover 144 times.
Edge against the 4 point teaser line=Connecticut.
In 1000 simulated games, Washington covered the 4 point teaser line 298 times, and failed to cover 693 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 675 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 290 failed to go over.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 515 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 459 failed to go under.
No Edge.

Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection

Trends Favoring Washington.
Bet on Washington on the 1st half line when they make 40% to 44% of their shots in a game.
Washington record on the 1st half line since the 2024 season: 13-2 (87%) with an average 1st half line of +3.0. (+10.8 unit$, ROI=61.4%)
The average 1st half score of these games was Mystics 42.4, Opponents 38.4.
Bet on Washington in road games on the 1st half line in games where they attempt 62 to 68 shots.
Washington record on the 1st half line since the 2024 season: 9-1 (90%) with an average 1st half line of +3.5. (+7.9 unit$, ROI=71.8%)
The average 1st half score of these games was Mystics 40.6, Opponents 36.3.
Bet on Washington in road games on the 1st half line when they commit 3 to 6 more turnovers than their opponents.
Washington record on the 1st half line since the 2024 season: 6-0 (100%) with an average 1st half line of +4.5. (+6.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%)
The average 1st half score of these games was Mystics 36.7, Opponents 34.8.
Trends Favoring Connecticut.
Bet on Connecticut in home games on the money line when they commit 3 to 6 fewer turnovers than their opponents.
Connecticut record since the 2023 season: 13-1 (93%) with an average money line of -348. (+13.2 unit$, ROI=27.1%)
The average score of these games was Sun 85.9, Opponents 73.6.
Trends Favoring Under.
Bet under the total in Washington games when they score 70 to 75 points in a game.
The Under's record since the 2024 season: 8-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 158.9. (+8.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%)
The average score of these games was Mystics 72.6, Opponents 76.9.
Bet under the total in Washington road games when they commit 3 to 6 more turnovers than their opponents.
The Under's record since the 2024 season: 6-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 156.9. (+6.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%)
The average score of these games was Mystics 71.2, Opponents 73.0.
Glossary of Terms

Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.

Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.

Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.

Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.

Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.

H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.

3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.

FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.

Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.

OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.

TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.