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| Monday, 04/28/2025 10:00 PM (ET) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 4 - Golden State leads series 2 games to 1. | ||||||
| Gm# | Record | Open | Latest | ML | 1H | |
 HOU | 581 | 53-32 | 201 | 203 | +145 | 102.5 |
 GSW | 582 | 51-35 | -4 | -3.5 | -165 | -2 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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NBA Simulation & Power Ratings |
Power Rating Projections |
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| Power Rating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Rating | Estimate | Actual | Edge |
| HOU | 117 | |||
| GSW | 120 | -5 | -3.5 | GSW (+1.5) |
Game Simulation Results |
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores, Edges | Shooting | 3pt Shooting | Free Throws | Rebounding | |||||||||||
| Teams | Score | Edge | H1Score | Edge | 3FGM-A | Pct. | 3FGM-A | Pct. | FTM-A | Pct. | Tot. | OFF | TO | ||
| HOU | 109 | Ov (+21.1) | 55 | Ov (+10.3) | 42-91 | 45.7% | 13-35 | 37.4% | 13-19 | 70.5% | 57 | 16 | 16 | ||
| GSW | 115 | GSW (+1.5) | 58 | 40-88 | 45.7% | 16-42 | 36.8% | 18-22 | 81.3% | 51 | 12 | 13 | |||
Simulation Line Covers |
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| The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total. | |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Golden State covered the spread 526 times, while Houston covered the spread 474 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 876 games went over the total, while 111 games went under the total. Edge against the total=Over. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Golden State won the game straight up 594 times, while Houston won 379 times. No Edge. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Golden State covered the first half line 503 times, while Houston covered the first half line 461 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 797 games went over the first half total, while 203 games went under the first half total. Edge against the first half total=Over. |
 | In 1000 simulated games, Golden State covered the 4 point teaser line 621 times, and failed to cover 379 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, Houston covered the 4 point teaser line 565 times, and failed to cover 435 times. No Edge. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 912 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 81 failed to go over. Edge against the 4 point teaser total=Over. |
| In 1000 simulated games, 160 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 823 failed to go under. No Edge. |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
| Trends Favoring Under. | |
|---|---|
| Bet under the 1st half total in Houston away or neutral games when they grab 16 or more offensive rebounds in a game. The 1st half Under's record during the 2025 season: 15-3 (83%) with an average 1st half over/under of 113.0. (+11.7 unit$, ROI=59.1%) The average score of these games was Rockets 53.9, Opponents 51.4. |
| Bet under the 1st half total in Houston away or neutral games when their opponents make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game. The 1st half Under's record during the 2025 season: 14-2 (88%) with an average 1st half over/under of 110.0. (+11.8 unit$, ROI=67.0%) The average score of these games was Rockets 52.8, Opponents 49.6. |
| Bet under the 1st half total in Golden State games when they attempt 21 to 26 free throws in a game. The 1st half Under's record since the 2024 season: 34-8 (81%) with an average 1st half over/under of 115.5. (+25.2 unit$, ROI=52.1%) The average score of these games was Warriors 55.8, Opponents 53.3. |
| Bet under the 1st half total in Golden State games when they make 32% to 38% of their three point attempts in a game. The 1st half Under's record during the 2025 season: 27-8 (77%) with an average 1st half over/under of 114.0. (+18.2 unit$, ROI=46.0%) The average score of these games was Warriors 53.2, Opponents 52.8. |
| Bet under the 1st half total in Golden State games in games where they force 13 to 17 turnovers. The 1st half Under's record during the 2025 season: 29-10 (74%) with an average 1st half over/under of 114.0. (+18.0 unit$, ROI=40.9%) The average score of these games was Warriors 52.8, Opponents 55.9. |
Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.
Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.
Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.
Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.
H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.
3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.
FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.
Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.
Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.
OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.
TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.