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Tuesday, 04/29/2025 6:00 PM (ET) 
Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 5 - Indiana leads series 2 games to 1.
 Gm#RecordOpenLatestML1H
 MIL
 Milwaukee (5)
50550-36
 IND
 Indiana (4)
50652-33NLNLNL

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NBA Simulation & Power Ratings

This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.

Power Rating Projections

Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.

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 Power Rating
TeamsRatingEstimateActualEdge
 MIL Milwaukee117
 IND Indiana117-2 

Game Simulation Results

This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.

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Average projected scores and game statistics.
 Scores, EdgesShooting   3pt ShootingFree ThrowsRebounding 
TeamsScoreEdgeH1ScoreEdge3FGM-APct.3FGM-APct.FTM-APct.Tot.OFFTO
 MIL Milwaukee114 57 42-8748.8%13-3637.1%17-2276.1%51913
 IND Indiana117 59 44-9148.5%14-3936.8%15-1879.8%511011

Simulation Line Covers

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The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
In 1000 simulated games, Indiana covered the spread 0 times, while Milwaukee covered the spread 0 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 0 games went over the total, while 0 games went under the total.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, Indiana won the game straight up 568 times, while Milwaukee won 410 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, Indiana covered the first half line 0 times, while Milwaukee covered the first half line 0 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 0 games went over the first half total, while 0 games went under the first half total.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, Indiana covered the 4 point teaser line 0 times, and failed to cover 0 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, Milwaukee covered the 4 point teaser line 0 times, and failed to cover 0 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 0 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 0 failed to go over.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 0 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 0 failed to go under.
No Edge.

Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection

Trends Favoring Milwaukee.
Bet on Milwaukee in away or neutral games on the money line when they have the around same number of rebounds as their opponents in a game.
Milwaukee record during the 2025 season: 14-2 (88%) with an average money line of -221. (+13.0 unit$, ROI=36.7%)
The average score of these games was Bucks 113.4, Opponents 108.6.
Trends Favoring Indiana.
Bet on Indiana on the money line in games where they commit 12 or fewer turnovers.
Indiana record during the 2025 season: 37-15 (71%) with an average money line of -204. (+27.4 unit$, ROI=25.8%)
The average score of these games was Pacers 119.9, Opponents 114.4.
Bet on Indiana in home games on the money line in games where they force 13 to 17 turnovers.
Indiana record during the 2025 season: 14-3 (82%) with an average money line of -281. (+12.8 unit$, ROI=26.7%)
The average score of these games was Pacers 118.0, Opponents 112.4.
Bet against Milwaukee in home games on the money line when they allow 115 to 120 points in a game.
Milwaukee record since the 2024 season: 5-14 (26%) with an average money line of -194. (-31.8 unit$, ROI=-86.2%)
The average score of these games was Bucks 113.3, Opponents 117.1.
Bet against Milwaukee on the money line when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game.
Milwaukee record during the 2025 season: 6-16 (27%) with an average money line of -184. (-24.6 unit$, ROI=-60.7%)
The average score of these games was Bucks 115.6, Opponents 119.6.
Glossary of Terms

Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.

Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.

Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.

Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.

Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.

H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.

3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.

FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.

Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.

OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.

TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.