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Tuesday, 05/20/2025 8:30 PM (ET) 
Western Conference - Conference Finals - Best Of 7 - Game 1
 Gm#RecordOpenLatestML1H
 MIN
 Minnesota (6)
52757-35214215.5+250108.5
 OKC
 Oklahoma City (1)
52875-18-7.5-7.5-330-4

Matchup Content Menu

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Tip SheetSimulation & Ratings🔒Betting Systems🔒Team Trends🔒Team StatsPlayers Stats & InjuriesSchedule & ResultsHead-to-Head🔒Coaches🔒

NBA Simulation & Power Ratings

This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.

Power Rating Projections

Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.

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 Power Rating
TeamsRatingEstimateActualEdge
 MIN Minnesota122 
 OKC Oklahoma City128-8-7.5OKC (+0.5)

Game Simulation Results

This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.

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Average projected scores and game statistics.
 Scores, EdgesShooting   3pt ShootingFree ThrowsRebounding 
TeamsScoreEdgeH1ScoreEdge3FGM-APct.3FGM-APct.FTM-APct.Tot.OFFTO
 MIN Minnesota112MIN (+2.5)Ov (+14.6)57MIN (+1)Ov (+7.8)41-8946.2%15-3937.3%16-2174.9%541215
 OKC Oklahoma City118 59 43-9346.6%14-3936.3%17-2180.7%531211

Simulation Line Covers

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The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
In 1000 simulated games, Minnesota covered the spread 559 times, while Oklahoma City covered the spread 441 times.
Edge against the spread=Minnesota.
In 1000 simulated games, 804 games went over the total, while 196 games went under the total.
Edge against the total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, Oklahoma City won the game straight up 617 times, while Minnesota won 357 times.
Edge on the money line=Minnesota.
In 1000 simulated games, Minnesota covered the first half line 521 times, while Oklahoma City covered the first half line 444 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 728 games went over the first half total, while 272 games went under the first half total.
Edge against the first half total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, Oklahoma City covered the 4 point teaser line 546 times, and failed to cover 454 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, Minnesota covered the 4 point teaser line 657 times, and failed to cover 343 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 854 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 146 failed to go over.
Edge against the 4 point teaser total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, 263 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 737 failed to go under.
No Edge.

Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection

Trends Favoring Oklahoma City.
Bet against Minnesota on the money line when they allow 115 to 120 points in a game.
Minnesota record during the 2025 season: 4-11 (27%) with an average money line of -259. (-24.5 unit$, ROI=-63.0%)
The average score of these games was Timberwolves 113.8, Opponents 117.3.
Trends Favoring Over.
Bet over the total in Minnesota games when they allow 115 to 120 points in a game.
The Over's record since the 2024 season: 24-4 (86%) with an average over/under of 219.3. (+19.6 unit$, ROI=63.6%)
The average score of these games was Timberwolves 113.2, Opponents 117.1.
Trends Favoring Under.
Bet under the 1st half total in Minnesota away or neutral games when they make 32% to 38% of their three point attempts in a game.
The 1st half Under's record during the 2025 season: 15-2 (88%) with an average 1st half over/under of 111.0. (+12.8 unit$, ROI=68.4%)
The average score of these games was Timberwolves 52.3, Opponents 48.0.
Bet under the 1st half total in Minnesota away or neutral games in games where they force 12 or fewer turnovers.
The 1st half Under's record during the 2025 season: 16-3 (84%) with an average 1st half over/under of 111.5. (+12.7 unit$, ROI=60.8%)
The average score of these games was Timberwolves 51.7, Opponents 52.3.
Glossary of Terms

Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.

Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.

Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.

Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.

Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.

H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.

3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.

FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.

Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.

OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.

TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.