More NHL Games |
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| Monday, 04/21/2025 7:00 PM | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHL Playoffs - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1 | |||||||
| Record | Starter | Open | Latest | ||||
| Gm# | W-L-OTL PTS | Goalie | ML | O/U | ML | O/U | |
 MON | 27 | 40-31-11, 91 pts. | MONTEMBEAULT | +160 | 5.5o-15 | +160 | 5.5o-30 |
 WAS | 28 | 51-22-9, 111 pts. | THOMPSON | -185 | 5.5u-05 | -185 | 5.5u+10 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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NHL Simulation & Power Ratings |
Power Rating Projections |
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| Teams | Actual Line | Estimated Line | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Goalie | ML | B.E. | ML | Win% | Edge% | |
| MON | 3.11 | MONTEMBEAULT | +160 | 38.5% | -119 | 54.4% | MON (+16.0%) |
| WAS | 2.77 | THOMPSON | -185 | 64.9% | +-119 | 45.6% | |
Game Simulation Results |
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Line | Estimated Line | Over/Under | Projected Stats | ||||||||||
| Teams | Goalies | Score | ML | B.E. | ML | Win% | Edge | O/U | Est. | Edge | SOG | PP | AST |
| MON | MONTEMBEAULT | 1.91 | +160 | 38.5% | +166 | 37.6% | 5.5o-30 | 4.5 | 25 | 4-0 | 4 | ||
| WAS | THOMPSON | 2.60 | -185 | 64.9% | -166 | 62.4% | 5.5u+10 | 4.5 | UN (+1.0) | 31 | 3-1 | 5 | |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
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| Trends Favoring Washington | |
|---|---|
 | Bet against Montreal on the money line when they score 2 or less goals. Montreal record during the 2025 season: 4-25 (14%) with an average money line of +147. (-20.0 unit$, ROI=-68.8%) The average score of these games was Canadiens 1.4, Opponents 3.7. |
| Bet on Washington on the money line when they allow 2 or less goals. Washington record during the 2025 season: 33-3 (92%) with an average money line of -141. (+30.8 unit$, ROI=60.8%) The average score of these games was Capitals 3.6, Opponents 1.4. |
| Bet on Washington on the money line when they allow 2 goals. Washington record since the 2024 season: 27-6 (82%) with an average money line of -121. (+21.1 unit$, ROI=52.9%) The average score of these games was Capitals 3.6, Opponents 2.0. |
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| Trends Favoring Under | |
|---|---|
 | Bet under the total in Washington games when they allow 2 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 24-8 (75%) with an average over/under of 5.9, money line=-110. (+16.0 unit$, ROI=40.3%) The average score of these games was Capitals 3.6, Opponents 1.4. |
Teams: The competing teams in the matchup.
Goalies: The starting goaltenders for each team.
Betting Lines
ML (Money Line): The odds for each team to win the game outright.
B.E. (Break-Even %): The implied probability of winning based on the money line.
Estimated ML: The projected money line based on power ratings and goaltender performance.
Win%: The projected win probability for each team based on simulations.
Edge%: The difference between the estimated and actual betting line, indicating potential value.
Game Simulation
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on simulations.
Over/Under (O/U): The projected total goals scored in the game.
Est. O/U: The estimated over/under based on simulations.
O/U Edge: The difference between the estimated and actual over/under total.
Projected Game Stats
SOG (Shots on Goal): The projected total number of shots on goal for each team.
PP (Power Play Goals): The projected number of power play goals scored by each team.
AST (Assists): The projected total assists for each team.
Trends & Insights
Trends Favoring Team: Historical betting trends that support one team based on past performance in similar matchups.
Trends Favoring Over/Under: Historical trends indicating whether games involving these teams tend to go over or under the total.