More NHL Games |
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| Tuesday, 04/22/2025 8:30 PM | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHL Playoffs - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1 | |||||||
| Record | Starter | Open | Latest | ||||
| Gm# | W-L-OTL PTS | Goalie | ML | O/U | ML | O/U | |
 FLA | 49 | 47-31-4, 98 pts. | BOBROVSKY | +105 | 5.5o-05 | -110 | 5.5o-10 |
 TBL | 50 | 47-27-8, 102 pts. | VASILEVSKIY | -125 | 5.5u-15 | -110 | 5.5u-10 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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NHL Simulation & Power Ratings |
Power Rating Projections |
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| Teams | Actual Line | Estimated Line | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Goalie | ML | B.E. | ML | Win% | Edge% | |
| FLA | 3.00 | BOBROVSKY | -110 | 52.4% | +165 | 37.8% | |
| TBL | 4.05 | VASILEVSKIY | -110 | 52.4% | -165 | 62.2% | TBL (+9.8%) |
Game Simulation Results |
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Line | Estimated Line | Over/Under | Projected Stats | ||||||||||
| Teams | Goalies | Score | ML | B.E. | ML | Win% | Edge | O/U | Est. | Edge | SOG | PP | AST |
| FLA | BOBROVSKY | 1.26 | -110 | 52.4% | +265 | 27.4% | 5.5o-10 | 3.5 | 30 | 3-0 | 2 | ||
| TBL | VASILEVSKIY | 2.28 | -110 | 52.4% | -265 | 72.6% | TBL (+20.2%) | 5.5u-10 | 3.5 | UN (+2.0) | 26 | 4-1 | 4 |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
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| Trends Favoring Florida | |
|---|---|
 | Bet on Florida on the money line when they allow 2 or less goals. Florida record during the 2025 season: 33-3 (92%) with an average money line of -196. (+29.3 unit$, ROI=41.4%) The average score of these games was Panthers 3.5, Opponents 1.1. |
| Bet against Tampa Bay on the money line when they score 2 or less goals. Tampa Bay record during the 2025 season: 1-24 (4%) with an average money line of -159. (-36.9 unit$, ROI=-92.8%) The average score of these games was Lightning 1.4, Opponents 3.2. |
| Bet against Tampa Bay on the money line when they score 2 goals. Tampa Bay record during the 2025 season: 1-12 (8%) with an average money line of -151. (-16.2 unit$, ROI=-82.2%) The average score of these games was Lightning 2.0, Opponents 3.6. |
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| Trends Favoring Tampa Bay | |
|---|---|
| Bet against Florida on the money line when they score 1 or less goals. Florida record during the 2025 season: 1-18 (5%) with an average money line of -154. (-27.6 unit$, ROI=-94.0%) The average score of these games was Panthers 0.7, Opponents 3.2. |
| Bet against Florida on the money line when they score 2 or less goals. Florida record during the 2025 season: 6-27 (18%) with an average money line of -166. (-37.9 unit$, ROI=-69.1%) The average score of these games was Panthers 1.3, Opponents 3.1. |
| Bet on Tampa Bay on the money line when they allow 1 or less goals. Tampa Bay record during the 2025 season: 23-0 (100%) with an average money line of -174. (+23.8 unit$, ROI=59.4%) The average score of these games was Lightning 4.3, Opponents 0.7. |
| Bet on Tampa Bay on the money line when they allow 2 or less goals. Tampa Bay record during the 2025 season: 35-7 (83%) with an average money line of -158. (+25.2 unit$, ROI=38.0%) The average score of these games was Lightning 3.8, Opponents 1.3. |
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| Trends Favoring Under | |
|---|---|
 | Bet under the total in Florida games when they score 1 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 17-1 (94%) with an average over/under of 5.8, money line=-112. (+16.2 unit$, ROI=75.8%) The average score of these games was Panthers 0.7, Opponents 3.2. |
| Bet under the total in Florida games when they allow 2 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 28-7 (80%) with an average over/under of 5.8, money line=-110. (+20.7 unit$, ROI=52.2%) The average score of these games was Panthers 3.5, Opponents 1.1. |
| Bet under the total in Florida games when they score 2 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 26-6 (81%) with an average over/under of 5.7, money line=-113. (+19.6 unit$, ROI=52.6%) The average score of these games was Panthers 1.3, Opponents 3.1. |
| Bet under the total in Tampa Bay games when they score 2 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 22-3 (88%) with an average over/under of 6.2, money line=-112. (+19.1 unit$, ROI=68.3%) The average score of these games was Lightning 1.4, Opponents 3.2. |
| Bet under the total in Tampa Bay games when they allow 1 or less goals. The Under's record since the 2023 season: 46-9 (84%) with an average over/under of 6.2, money line=-109. (+37.0 unit$, ROI=58.4%) The average score of these games was Lightning 4.1, Opponents 0.7. |
| Bet under the total in Tampa Bay games when they score 2 goals. The Under's record since the 2024 season: 23-6 (79%) with an average over/under of 6.3, money line=-112. (+16.8 unit$, ROI=45.7%) The average score of these games was Lightning 2.0, Opponents 3.8. |
Teams: The competing teams in the matchup.
Goalies: The starting goaltenders for each team.
Betting Lines
ML (Money Line): The odds for each team to win the game outright.
B.E. (Break-Even %): The implied probability of winning based on the money line.
Estimated ML: The projected money line based on power ratings and goaltender performance.
Win%: The projected win probability for each team based on simulations.
Edge%: The difference between the estimated and actual betting line, indicating potential value.
Game Simulation
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on simulations.
Over/Under (O/U): The projected total goals scored in the game.
Est. O/U: The estimated over/under based on simulations.
O/U Edge: The difference between the estimated and actual over/under total.
Projected Game Stats
SOG (Shots on Goal): The projected total number of shots on goal for each team.
PP (Power Play Goals): The projected number of power play goals scored by each team.
AST (Assists): The projected total assists for each team.
Trends & Insights
Trends Favoring Team: Historical betting trends that support one team based on past performance in similar matchups.
Trends Favoring Over/Under: Historical trends indicating whether games involving these teams tend to go over or under the total.